IDEAS-on how to split top 2 in most fav. column in tipping p

[Bhagwan]

Has anyone got any profiable idears on how to split top 2 in most fav.column in the newspaper.Since one of these wins 45% of the the time,year in & year out.

[Reenster]

Back the one that's NOT favourite, or the one at longer odds.

Better still, don't listen to what the media says at all. If a horse is being ramped by the media tipsters, you can pretty much guarantee you won't get a fair price.

Value is the key.

[Bhagwan]

Dear Reenster: Thankyou for you`re valuable input,it makes sense ,what gets frustrating is the number of short priced favorites that get up out of these 2 top selections in the most fav. column.
On 2001-12-14 14:24, Reenster wrote:
Back the one that's NOT favourite, or the one at longer odds.

Better still, don't listen to what the media says at all. If a horse is being ramped by the media tipsters, you can pretty much guarantee you won't get a fair price.

Value is the key.

[Mr. Logic]

Assuming 45% strike rate from the top two is correct you are looking at nine winners from 40 selections.
That means the strike rate backing short priced horses is nowhere near good enough to win.
These horses will also be big unders on the tote.
Maybe use some of the punting tips on this site to eliminate poorly drawn and handicapped horses.
You mention about the "top 2 in most fav.column in the newspaper." that "one of these wins 45% of the the time,year in & year out."
Which paper is an interesting point or doesn't it matter? I would have thought the top two in some papers would be much better than the top two in other papers - just like rating services. Some are lucky to get a winner in their top two, others have an excellent strike rate. If the paper is irrelevant (which I find hard to believe) then check a few papers and find the horses in the top two that are at most generous odds once your elimination rules have taken affect.

[Bhagwan]

The 45% strike from top 2 in tippsters poll, can be found from all the popular newspapers E.g. Australian,Courier Mail,Hearald,etc.Saturday only. So,from 32 races on Sat.on an averaging basic ,14 winners approx.should pop up from one of the top 2, this has been reseached over many years by a number of outside sources.The amazing fact is this percentage Does not varie by more than 1% year in year out.You could say ,that we now have a recurring factor that could be worked on & refined to perhaps glean a profit . I`d appreciate others thoughts on this.

[Reenster]

Bhagwan,

Assuming you're right, you get 14 winners from 64 selections (top two in 32 races) that's about a 21% strike rate.

That means that if you backed each one and your average win price was $4.50 you'd still LOSE over the long term.

Again, if a horse is in the top two of the media selections (another phrase is that they are media hyped) you'd be extremely lucky to get $4.50 because everybody who doesn't do their own form would be backing them.

There is NO value in following what the media tips. They work their selections out on a Thursday without any consideration of track condition, track bias, final scratchings etc. It is extremely risky to follow these selections and should be left for the sheep.

I've never seen a wealthy sheep.

V.I.A.T.K.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Reenster on 2001-12-21 13:02 ]</font>

[Bhagwan]

Dear Reenster. The idea is to stand one of them out,not back both of them.It would be good if we could, but prices usually dont permit.