Topweight In A Welter

[Chrome Prince]

Someone mentioned this in a thread recently, and I can't seem to find it, so apologies to the author.

Here are some stats on a small sample of races. I'll add to it later.

Rules
Welter races
Back the topweight.

Selections: 35
Winners: 8
Strike Rate: 22.86%
Profit: <font color=green>$4.80</font> (TAB prices)
POT: <font color=green>13.71%</font>
Average Dividend $4.90

[xanadu]

Hullo Chrome Prince,

Yes this should prove to be a reasonably profitable approach as it has appeared to stand the "test of time."
Only one filter should be applied-do not back the topweight if ridden by a 3kg apprentice. No packdrill, no aspersions, but only support the runner if ridden by one of the top five riders.
The logic here is that in these relatively high class races the best horse gets the highest weight. Only one drawback....regularly, they receive imposts of 60.5kg upwards.
Accordingly, the connections recruit a 3kg apprentice to ease the load. However, quite often, the apprentice "loses his/her way."
A relatively inexperienced youth finds him/herself in control of a very powerful "adrenalin-pumped-up" animal and some find it impossible to control this highly charged thoroughbred athlete.
To put this into perspective, would they allow a "rookie" to drive for one of the top teams at Bathurst?-I think not...those cars, like a lot of thoroughbreds are worth a helluva lot of money and connections are adverse to risking damage to their valuable property with an inexperienced rider.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Xanadu,

Was amazed I received no other replies on this.
Could be the small sample size - wish I had a larger database.

These little investigations I plan to update monthly for everyone to "do as they please" with the information.

Your analogy horses vs V8 cars and rookies ve apprentices was spot on.

There is general mindset that weight must be lightened at all costs - it seems silly to me if it costs you first prize!

Especially if a horse has won with that weight or more weight previously.

[umrum]

[quote]
On 2003-09-17 17:17, Chrome Prince wrote:
Hi Xanadu,

Was amazed I received no other replies on this.
Could be the small sample size - wish I had a larger database.

cheers chrome for the stats. very interesting.

[xanadu]

G'day Chrome Prince,

This method was previously referred to as "the get out stakes" method and over a period of time usually proved profitable.
My own experience goes back to the 70's when that "hard as nails warrior," Bold Warrior, ridden by Des Lake was usually asked to carry in excess of 63kg in the last race which, in those days, was usually always a welter. Thus the term "welter horse" evolved. Probably not relevant today but these poor horses, because they had worked their way through the classes(perhaps not as sophisticated a system as we have today) and proved their bravery/tenacity along the way, were just too "damned good" for their opponents.
Therefore, incredible imposts were lumbered on to these "people's champions" to "bring them back to the field."
More often than not they tried their best and I can attest to "getting out" on many occasions.
I, for one, will be following your stats with interest as one of my favourite sayings in racing is that: "the best will always come first."
It is a very strong method and should return an acceptable POT.

Cheers.

[becareful]

Chrome Prince,

I was trying to run this through my database but have a problem with it for this particular query - however I did run it against a NSW TAB results database I have. This is for a full year but is for the year 2000 (so a few years old now):

184 selections
30 winners
-$38.70 (-21% LOT)

As this is not my normal database I am not 100% confident with the results but I am reasonably sure I haven't made any mistakes.

When I get the problem with my own database resolved for this (probably next week) I will check the results there.

Sorry for the bad news :sad:

[becareful]

BTW - those divs were NSW TAB so it would be better with Divi+, etc.

Also they were 7 days/week. For Sat Metro only it is better:

53 selections
5 winners
-$4.40 (-8.3% LOT)

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks Becareful.

Actually I'd only apply it to metro tracks anyway as the class factor comes into play here.

Also I think as xanadu suggested we have to avoid apprentices and topweights should ideally be at least 1kg higher than the next weighted horse.

When I have more results myself I'll rerun it with other filters and see what we come up with.

[gunny72]

The top weight in a welter system has been around for at least 20 years and it one of the better approaches but it needs a lot of work to become profitable. The topweight is really just a fairly classy horse that is usually consistent, both very reliable factors in finding a winner. It's just a pity about the weight which tends to bring it back to the rest of the field (as it should). So as usual it comes down to the fitness factor.
John

[Dale]

This system's success would hinge on eliminating the top weighted horses that only have the top weight because of form they can no longer produce,so if one could only select top weights that have earned that weight due to very good RECENT form it might have some legs.

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-09-16 16:28, Chrome Prince wrote:
Someone mentioned this in a thread recently, and I can't seem to find it, so apologies to the author.

Here are some stats on a small sample of races. I'll add to it later.

Rules
Welter races
Back the topweight.

Selections: 35
Winners: 8
Strike Rate: 22.86%
Profit: <font color=green>$4.80</font> (TAB prices)
POT: <font color=green>13.71%</font>
Average Dividend $4.90


An update on results:
METRO TRACKS ONLY
Selections: 41
Winners: 9
Strike Rate: 21.95%
Profit: <font color=green>$1.70</font> (TAB prices)
POT: <font color=green>4.15%</font>
Average Dividend $4.74

Last winner:
24/9/03 Eagle Farm MASINDOR $2.90

[Chrome Prince]

TOPWEIGHT IN WELTER UPDATE

Rules
Welter races
Back the topweight.

Selections: 43
Winners: 9
Strike Rate: 20.93%
Profit: <font color=red>-$0.30</font> (TAB prices)
POT: <font color=red>-0.70%</font>
Average Dividend $4.74

Taken a bit of a dive lately as suggested by other posters.
I would like to add additional filters to this, but the small sample size is dangerous.
Will wait until I have at least 100 races before adding any further rules.

[Chrome Prince]

Update:

Rules
Welter races
Back the topweight.

Selections: 46
Winners: 9
Strike Rate: 19.57%
Profit: -$3.30 (TAB prices)
POT: -7.17%
Average Dividend $4.74

Taken a steep dive for the worse, so I'm going to add an additional rule which is must have won at the track.

I realise this is retrofitted but the extra rule is logically sound.

Amended Rules
Welter races
Back the topweight
Must have won at the track.

Selections: 5
Winners: 3
Strike Rate: 60.00%
Profit: $2.10 (TAB prices)
POT: 42.00%
Average Dividend $2.37

Interesting to monitor this for a while.