share your info?????

[mystic]

Hi there,

Just out of interest, I was wandering if anybody would like to share how they pick a winner and how seriously do you take form into account. I am also interested to know how many of you horse punters pick winners or big place payers by just sheer luck or a gut feeling.
I suppose I am looking for some good advice!
Thanks guys

[xanadu]

G'day mystic,

To start your quest I would recommend you inspect "Form Pro"'s website.
It will highlight the potential chances in selected races and then you may wish to apply your own elimination rules from there.

Cheers.

[topsy99]

fallback positions. dont bet horses that have a series of failures.
dont look for reversals from the above.
good horses fresh and reasonable price.
personally i only look for group and listed horses. i disregard all others. i know there is a risk particularly from up and coming horses. (archave today is an example)i will wait for them to qualify.
generally i dont back stayers fresh as the number that win first up is not profitable.
statistically speaking on using my type of selections
the percentage of winners over a 18month period of testing listed horses is.
within 8 weeks of last qualifying. 33%
of winners- up to 12 months of last qualifying date.= 80% ...two years = additional 15%. over two years additional 5%.
total number of winning races 1200.
above example indicates the depletion of ability as time goes on.
also defines the adage that most horses probably only have one or two good seasons.
the further away from that good season the less likely the horse is to win.
hope that is helpful.

[Dale]

I'm into avoiding what everyone else is doing,by that i mean things like rather than look for the best horse in a race i look for the horse that has done well recently but might have finished out of a place last start and therefor be at decent odds.

Other thoughts;

Young horses have the freshest legs=ignore horses with too many race starts.

The bigger the field size the better the average win divy.

The last 3 starts are all that really matters and almost all winners have run well at one of their last 3 starts.

The top 8 lines of pre post betting win about 90% of races why look at any other horses.

[becareful]

My advice (for what it's worth):

Don't chase the big odds runners unless you know what you are doing.

Don't dismiss short odds chances - there is more "value" there than you think. In my experience it takes a lot less work (and a lot less stress) to make a profit out of horses under $3.00 than the ones over that price!

Never rely on a loss chasing staking plan to make a profit.

Making a profit out of horse racing takes a lot of time and work - if you aren't willing to put the work in then either accept that you will probably lose money or only break even OR don't bet at all! (Alternatively pay someone to do the work for you BUT be very careful about who you pay!)

And above all remember:

"Be careful whose advice you buy, but be patient with those who supply it. Advice is a form of nostalgia. Dispensing it is a way of fishing the past from the disposal, wiping it off, painting over the ugly parts and recycling it for more than it's worth."
Mary Schmich - from the song Everybody's Free to Wear Sunscreen (some very good advice in that song!)

[thekey]

Becareful,

I notice you have recently turned upside down your previous methods? If I recall correctly you used to bet double figure odds predominately and now its the shorties.
Is this change due to the lower disadvantage inherent in these price ranges, strike rates (avoiding losing streaks!) or other. I completelty respect ones right to alter their methods, hopefully after appropriate analysis, but would just be interested to know the reasons why.

thekey

PS please disregard this if I am completely off the mark in my inital observation.

[becareful]

Thekey,

You are correct. Last year I basically concentrated on midweek races and focused on the $7.00 to $15.00 price range. I did make a profit from it but it was:

1. Hard work!
2. Inconsistant - there were some really fantastic weeks but also some horrible weeks so a bit of an emotional roller coaster.
3. Due to the amount of work involved I was spending huge amounts of time but not earning enough to make a living.

At the time the last point was not a huge issue as I was only working part time and looking after the kids, etc, but this year with the kids off to school I had to go back to working more hours it was impractical to continue. (I sort of consider last year to be my "apprenticeship" for serious punting - I learnt a LOT, did a lot of hard work, had some fun and came out ahead)

Due to my work committments I decided that focusing on a Saturday only approach was better so went back to the drawing board (well actually the keyboard) and started looking for alternatives because my previous approach had never shown much promise for Saturday racing (at least not for the metro venues). For the first half of this year I actually did very little betting on the races and most of my punting was on the Tennis (very profitable).

Once I got past that "only mugs bet on favourites" myth I discovered that the short end of the market had some great promise - the old longshot bias means instead of having to overcome a 15% disadvantage you are almost starting at a break-even point so making a profit is actually not as hard.

I now have 2 basic "systems" in operation. My best one only averages about 2-3 bets per Saturday and all of them start at under $3.00 on the TAB (although I often get a bit more using Divi+ or bookie prices) but the strike rate and consistancy are phenominal. The second system has a few more bets and some longer prices but very rare to have anything over about $7.00.

Now that I have got everything worked out it takes me only a few minutes each Saturday morning to work out the raw selections (the computer does most of the work) and then it is just a matter of reviewing the prices just before each race where I have selected a runner to see if the selection becomes a bet and if so whether to bet Divi+ or fixed odds.

_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-09-18 11:59 ]</font>

[ShoeIn]

I look for racing patterns. Looking at sites like Ozeform it gives you a great feel for when a horse reaches it peak after a spell.

I'm also a big fan of horse/jockey combinations, I know some people think this is overrated but I have had some great results looking at Win/Place %s with certain horses and jockeys.

Never ever change your tips when you go to the track, unless there is a major reason to do so. And never let the price of a horse change your thinking, if you think it is a good chance and it's at long odds, then all the better for you.

And last but not least, class is the key. Research into what you consider are false pre-race favourites by looking at the class of the horses and you'll find good value.

Good Punting,
ShoeIn

[umrum]

no set rules.

i like looking at finishing lengths. often horses get under the guard of punters when they run a close up 7th or 10th. good example was archave yesterday. previous start was 1.3 lengths behind fiery venture and grand armee and beat home defier and private steer.

[puntz]

Selection methods are many, all require research to suit your own comfort zone.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-09-23 22:12 ]</font>

[mystic]

Thanks guys & gals for sharing your info, very generous, it sure will come in handy.

[thekey]

Becareful,

Thanks for your reply. Was much as I expected re: the roller coaster on longshots.

I have had similar experinces although I used to bet all price ranges dependent on the horse/race. When I reviewed my betting I found that while those over 7.00 were shwoing a profit it all came from one winner! This worried me as you can hardly rely on jagging something at those odds. The effect these longshots have on your strike rate can not be underestimated and it flows on that it effects your confidence (because your are losing) and you will probably start to 2nd guess yourself etc. which is big trouble in this game.

So now if I like something @ a decent price I want to know why it is that price. Am I overrating it or underrating something else? From what I have seen if I can't figure why the horse invariably runs up to the market price(not mine). To me this means there is some other reason which the people who matter are aware of but I have missed or am unable to obtain. eg. a fitness problem which has caused the horse to miss work which has been kept away from the public.
Whereas if you know why the market doesn't like the horse but you don't see that as a problem then by all means back your judgment.

thekey

[becareful]

Thekey,

You are exactly right there with prices. I used to ignore them but now I pay a LOT of attention to what the market is saying.

I think Shoe-In wrote to never change your mind based on price - I now have the opposite view and one of my final checks before placing a bet is what does the market price indicate about the chances. Basically i have a "Reverse Price Filter" - if my selection is over a certain price then NO BET. It has improved my strike rate, my profit and my consistancy enormously (and hence my confidence!). Unless you have insider information (direct from a stable, not from some joker on SKY!) then you have to assume that the market as a whole has much better information than you as an individual so if the market is pricing your selection at double your price then the market probably knows something you don't!

It certainly is possible to make money out of the longer odds horses - but I have found it much easier and less stressful to concentrate on the favourites. You still need to do your analysis and work but it is easier (IMHO) to find the value. Also a 60% strike rate is better for the heart than a 15% strike rate!

[Dale]

Perhaps those punters who like the longshots but hate the long waits between wins would be advised to back 3 or 4 horses from the top 8 lines of pre post betting/nothing over $15pre post.

If they were to pick there races carefully the occasional huge odds would give you your profit,and hey it would be more fun then trying to make 20% or less p.o.t. from the shorties.

[umrum]

hi guys, lots of interesting points of view.
i tend to back my selections regardless of price unless they come up very short. Becareful i find on the short-priced horses i get more annoyed when they go down because I and many others expect them to win where on a $10 pop if that goes down you can live with that.

Your point on strike rate is a good one because you can begin to doubt yourself or run out of the days allocated punting funds.
6/10 is a good strike rate but to make any money i need to risk more than i'm prepared.
On a saturday i usually bet to win about $200 on each bet. This means even money $100 and 10/1 $20 bucks.

What i'm saying is while you can work the short priced favourites many people cant sustain even a small run of outs where betting on the 10/1 or even reasonable odds i.e 4/1 up you can have more bets.

i suspose it depends on your aim.
obviously everyone wants to win and it depends on your comfort levels

[becareful]

Umrum,

On your point of "risking more than your prepared" I have found that once you work it out you find that the risk with the shorter priced horses is a lot lower for a given return (assuming you are getting a decent POT).

Just an illustration of what I am talking about:

Lets say we have two systems:
A favourites system with a strike rate of 60% and ave. div. of $2.00 which gives us a POT of 20%
A longshots system with a strike rate of 10% and ave. div of $12.00 which also gives a POT of 20%

(Note - I selected the above just to illustrate the point - same logic applies if you use say 20% SR and $6.00 ave div to the second system - the difference just isn't as dramatic).

Now lets say we have a betting bank of $1000, we are betting level stakes, and we want to be 99.5% confident that a run of outs will not bankrupt us.

With a 60% strike rate the longest run of outs, with 99.5% confidence level, is 6.
With a 10% strike rate the longest run of outs, with same confidence level is 29.

This means with the 60% stike rate we can set our bet size at $167
With the 10% SR then the bet size is $34.
(of course this is a bit simplistic as it only looks at a single run of outs, not worst drawdown position - in reality I would probably halve each of these figures for safety).

Now the 60% SR system is very selective so lets say we get 3 bets/week. The expected profit per week is therefore $167 * 20% * 3 = $100

To make $100 out of our longshots on average we would need to make roughly 15 bets per week (so 5 times as many) so we can already see there is more work involved.

But what about risk? The chance of a week with NO WINNERS under each system is:

favourites: 0.4 ^ 3 = 6.4% (or roughly 1 in 16 weeks)
Longshots: 0.9 ^ 15 = 20.6% (or roughly 1 in 5 weeks)

To me that clearly shows the risk is higher with the longshots - you are going to have much more variability in your results and many more "losing" weeks. Of course you will get bigger winning weeks too so I guess it depends whether you are happy to lose more often for that occassional big week or if you would rather have a very consistant steady winning income.

[becareful]

On 2003-09-18 14:42, puntz wrote:

Having said that, I always bet $5.00 on ANY runner if it is showing 100/1 or better.
Regrardless of form or my criteria.
However, I do not look for 100/1 shots systematicaly, that does not work. Only on the day if it is not too much trouble.
SIDE BETS !

So far, the side bets, 2500.00 in front on 100/1 longshots over a span of 6 years, betting 5.00 for win.
Last longshot I bet on lost, and I think I have lost on these 100/1 side bets about 4 times this year. That's 20.00 cost,yet I have won only about 6 times betting 100/1's
at 5.00
That's strategy !



Puntz,

That's not strategy - thats incredibly bloody lucky! You should buy yourself a lottery ticket with that luck.

According to my database there have been over 7000 runners in the last year that have started at 100/1 or higher on all 3 tabs. Guess how many winners?

13!

So apparantly you have somehow picked several of those 100/1 winners but avoided the 7000 selections that would have lost - that is incredible luck!

Had you backed all the 7000+ qualifiers at $5 each to win you would have lost $25,000 by now.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-09-19 23:24 ]</font>

[puntz]

BC
I have no point to answer up against databases and instant figures at the klik of a mouse button. However, I discoverd something purely by accident during a process of a race. It was second on my list of rated selections.
but yeah, it's rare


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-09-23 22:13 ]</font>