Prepost v Starting price

[DR RON]

It has been suggested by some on this forum that the S.P market has been the most accurate as far as results are concerned, How would it compare with the pre post market? would there be much difference?
Also what percentage of longer priced winners say 10S or longer would have been shorter in the prepost and drifted compared to the ones that were longer in the prepost?
I think that more would have shorter but would be interested to know on a large sample.

[Mark]

Dr Ron

No stats for you, but, more winners than losers open shorter than their newspaper price (I use Friday's Courier Mail)
eg there might be 8 races with a total of 96 runners, I would expect that 48 runners open at the same price or longer (get rid of these) & of the rest, they average 6 winners. This is only a generalisation as I have not studied it in great detail, but I have seen fields of 14 runners where there are only 3 that open shorter & they've run 1-2-3.
Just as a trial, go through the results on Sunday, crossing out those that open the same or longer, and see how it goes. If I remember I'll post results.

[umrum]

tend to agree mark. but it would depend mainly on what percentage the paper's market is set too and what percentage the bookies market is set too wouldn't it?

any ideas anyone? perhaps becareful or chrome prince may be able too enlighten us.

cheers lads and lasses(mystic)

[Chrome Prince]

Each prepost market will be different depending on who frames the markets.

Some papers are framed by journalists other more advanced markets are actually framed by bookmakers.

You're quite right on the market percentage Umrum - some markets are not an accurate reflection at all.

However, in general the firmers win more races than the drifters, BUT you might like to check out the drifters for value as opposed to strike rate.

I don't keep stats on prepost, but a few years ago I used to back the drifters under 10/1 in running doubles with some success, but constant changes in the authors of the markets meant inconsistency.

Many times a journo would be on holidays etc and the market wuld be framed by someone else unknown to the punter.

I think Winline GTS contains SP figures and prepost figures, so perhaps Bhagwan could shed some light?

[Dale]

Hi all something i have always watched with interest is pre post prices that double or triple by jump time,i don't have anything concrete on them but have noted that horses at $7 to say $15 pre post flucuate the most and if your looking for the big overlays then concentrate on these horses.
Anything under $7 seems to stay the same or shorten and anything over $15 pre post is not worth betting on in the first place.

[crash]

I was reading a thread in another forum about this topic when it was pointed out that there is an "official" pre-post market. The thread then went on to describe how it was done [which I can't remember]. Anyone know more about that?

cheers.