COX PLATE - CAN HE BE BEATEN?

[Wexford]

5- CARLTON DRAUGHT COX PLATE 2040 M
Of $3020000 Of $3000000 and $20000 trophies. First $2000000 and trophies of $15200 to owner $1800 to trainer $2200 to jockey $800 to strapper, second $500000, third $250000, fourth $150000, fifth $100000. Starter Subsidy: $200 for non-prize earning runners. For Three-Years-Old and Upwards. Standard Weight for Age. (GROUP 1). No allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 14+3 EM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 LONHRO John Hawkes D Beadman 7 58
2 DEFIER Guy Walter P Payne 8 58
3 FIELDS OF OMAGH Tony McEvoy Steven King 6 58
4 CLANGALANG Gerald Ryan C Brown 5 56.5
5 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison K McEvoy 2 56.5
6 PARACA (ARG) Andrew Balding N Rawiller 4 54
7 SHOWER OF ROSES (NZ) Gai Waterhouse C Munce 3 54
8 ZAGALIA (NZ) Clarry Conners 1 54
X ELVSTROEM C Williams 48.5

B = Ballots
X = Ineligible

[Wexford]

Personally I do not think so but I am hoping that both Paraca and Clangalang can make a race of it.

On the other hand GOD may well think DB has been greedy after paying 30 thou to keep the ride. After all, GOD does have this thing about greed (lol)




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Wexford on 2003-10-22 10:00 ]</font>

[crash]

Same half fit broken down lot but Clanga meets Lonhro under condt. that suit for the first time. Stick it to him Clanga and show the pretender up.

Cheers.

La Mer,

Your right and I deserve a thrashing. Came back now to remove the comparision bit as I realized it was a bit of a "stretch" but oh too late and oh that 2nd bottle of red that led me astray.

Cheers to you and humble pie for me !


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-23 02:26 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-23 02:36 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-23 02:38 ]</font>

[Mr. Logic]

Yes. Fields Of Omagh finished second last start at Caulfield in the Gr 1 Toorak Handicap. Look at how it has run against Northerly. And we all know what Northerly has done to Lonhro.

[La Mer]

Crash wrote: Kingston Town won 26 group races and Sunline won 27. Lonhro has a bit of catching up to do. Lonhro is basicly a sprinter so where are the overall fast times that [champion] sprinters are suposed to run ? Also consider the half fit, half broken down lot he has been racing against and beating again and again. If overall times mean nothing in sprints, why arn't we racing ponies?

In the Cox Lonhro meets Clangalang under condition that suit Clangalang for the first time, and not sit and sprints over much shorter distances.

Come back and gloat after the Cox if Lonhro wins, but I bet no Lonhro supporters will be returning here after Saterday !
**********************************

La Mer: I've transferred Crash's post and my response from the theme on risk as it appears that this is where it should be.

Crash, you make reference to me comparing Lonhro to Sunline and Kingston Town, perhaps you can point out where I made such a statement - I didn't.

What I stated was that both those horses, who have rightfully found themselves listed amongst those considered to be champions and in KT's case one of Australia's great race horses, did not break track records during their careers.

The time to judge just where Lonhro will rate amongst the other champions will be when his racing career is finished and not right now.

However, his record as it now stands compares favourably with both Sunline and Kingston Town in regard to group race wins:

Kingston Town - 26 group wins from 41 races;
Sunline - 27 group wins from 48 races; and
Lonhro - 20 group wins from 29 races.

If Lonhro was to race on beyond the Sydney autumn carnival in 2004, then he would no doubt end up with more group wins then either of the other two, but as he is to go to stud next year, then he may or may not achieve that feat.

In regard to Clangalang beating him in the Cox Plate on Saturday, we will have to see but I agree if there is to be an upset then this is the horse most likely to cause that upset.

In regard to Lonhro being 'basically a sprinter', the evidence of his career record so far would indicate differently as 16 of his 22 wins have been at 1400m or longer, with eight of his nine group one wins being at 1500m or longer.

[umrum]

go clangalang. black flash wont handle valley or the extensive sprint from 'the school'.

if its wet

clangalang
n blitz
shower of roses

if its dry

clangalang
defier
n blitz

[Tab Hunter]

Dream on! Lonhro will kill it.....

[Chrome Prince]

In my opinion Lonhro will kill it too.

The dangers are Clangalang and Fields Of Omagh.

[crash]

La Mer,

I stick to my point that Lonhro is basicaly a sprinter. A working canter and a bolt for home in a 1600m or even a 2000m is a sprint. The times suggest nothing ealse. As to his status as a "c" , now you ARE comparing Lonhro with Kingston Town and Sunline as in your "compares favourably" above, well I'll agree to disagree because he is being retired and we will never know and the owners don't want to risk him. Obviously they are not as confident as some about the "c" sticking too well and I think a few years down the track no one will remember the name Lonhro [even if he wins the Cox] when they talk of champions of the turf because since the demise of Northerly he has had no decent comp. to run against and that is another good reason to retire him this year.

PS. Vo Rogue only won 6 group 1's, Mahogany 8, Might and Power 7, Northerly 9 and Super Impose 8 [and I could go on]. Any non-champs amongst this lot ? You are comparing apples and oranges I think.

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-23 03:20 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-23 03:31 ]</font>

[Mr. Logic]

My post couldn't have been seen. So here it is again. Lonhro can be beaten. Fields Of Omagh finished second last start at Caulfield in the Gr 1 Toorak Handicap. Look at how it has run against Northerly. And we all know what Northerly has done to Lonhro.

[Mark]

Champion or not, every horse is beatable. That's racing.

[umrum]

On 2003-10-23 08:44, Mark wrote:
Champion or not, every horse is beatable. That's racing.


mark you are spot on.
everyone expects a horse to go unbeaten. thats impossible.

[Matilda]

I will go for Field of Omagh. If it continue to rain, I will then go for Shower of Roses....Suits the name.

[Chrome Prince]

I beleive Lonhro will win, however, I won't be taking the UNDERS offered.

It seems he could start as short as $1.40 with all the sentimental and mug money.
I won't have a bar of $1.40.

Fields of Omagh is huge overs at around $17.00 (wouldn't even mind a place bet) and Clangalang is about the right price at $6.00.

I might entertain $1.80 about Lonhro but any less and I'll be on Clangalang for the place.

Whether I'm on him or not, I hope he wins to silence the knockers.
But then again knockers are knockers and they still won't stop even if he wins easily.

[umrum]

my cox market. n.b i wont be holding bets

evens Lonhro
5/2 clangalang
8/1 defier
9/1 Nat Blitz
14/1 fields of omagh
14/1 shower of roses
16/1 paraca
40/1 Zagalia


120% market

[Paddy]

Prices at: 16:09:59, 23 Oct 2003
No. Selection Win Place
001 Lonhro $1.50 $1.10
004 Clangalang $5.00 $1.55
002 Defier $12.00 $2.10
007 Shower of Roses $15.00 $2.50
003 Fields of Omagh $17.00 $2.50
005 Natural Blitz $19.00 $2.50
008 Zagalia $26.00 $4.00
006 Paraca $34.00 $5.00



I believe Lonhro can be beaten.

Defier, Shower of Roses & Fields of Omagh are currently all well over their true odds.

I rate Clangalang around 3/1 & Lonhro around 2/1.

Then we have the unknown commodity Paraca - the 33/1 on offer at the moment must be worth a little wager purely on speculation.

[Raw Instinct]

I am going with Claganlang and Fields of Omagh in this one Lohnro is far to short in this and the more it rains the more suspect I think he might be.

Just a side point on Lohnro he is a great horse but how many of those races that he has won past say a mile have been in sydney in 7 horse fields where they walk for 1000 metres then speed up.

[LONHRO 19]

GOOD LUCKS GUYS I GOT 4/1 ABOUT 2 MONTHS AGO
GO YOU GOOD THING. LONHRO WIN EASY
CHEERS

[xptdriver]

Gday All

for what its worth, I, like most everyone else I guess have Lohnro on top. but I am willing to take him on.. I think the $1.50 on offer is way way unders, he should be at worst evens. Bearing that in mind I think the value in the plate without doubt is Fields of Omagh. His last run was pretty impressive.Having said that there was nothing wrong with Lohnro's last run either. I still think this is a harder race than it appears on paper.. Good luck with your picks

[umrum]

lonhro is a sensational horse but is best suited at 1400 - 1600 metres. all his races over 2000metres bar the cox plate have been slowly run sit and sprints. this is perfect for him as he has an unbelievable turn of foot but i believe he can sustain a run for only 400 metres. i hope they stretch him out which will bring clangalang, natural blitz, FOO and defier(dry track only) right into it.

[brave chief]

personally, i hope the best horse in oz over the last 12 months (beaten once when topweight under hcp conditions) can blitz them.

really, who else deserves to go down as a Cox Plate winner? Clangalang perhaps, but he lacks Lonhro's sprint.

Of course he can get beaten: wet track, only run at Valley was an inglorious one. But even the knockers have to admit, he's never performed better. and all the talk of a fast pace, personally i can't see it happening.

[La Mer]

[quote]
On 2003-10-24 10:32, umrum wrote:
lonhro ... all his races over 2000metres bar the cox plate have been slowly run sit and sprints.
***************************************

La Mer: Umrum, you are attempting to perpetuate a myth re Lonhro only being able to win in sit and sprint races at 2000m. Go have a looksee at the 2002 Caulfield Stakes and you will see Lonhro and Sunline blitz the rest by six lengths in a time that was a mere 0.2seconds outside the track record.

Simply because he is seldom required to run times in his races, only ever needing to do what is required to win, does not mean his is not capable of doing so.

[Seeker11]

On 2003-10-23 08:38, Mr. Logic wrote:
My post couldn't have been seen. So here it is again. Lonhro can be beaten. Fields Of Omagh finished second last start at Caulfield in the Gr 1 Toorak Handicap. Look at how it has run against Northerly. And we all know what Northerly has done to Lonhro.


I hear ya Mr Logic. I reckon Fields of Omagh could upset and I will be taking Lonhro on

[umrum]

On 2003-10-24 12:00, La Mer wrote:
[quote]
On 2003-10-24 10:32, umrum wrote:
lonhro ... all his races over 2000metres bar the cox plate have been slowly run sit and sprints.
***************************************

La Mer: Umrum, you are attempting to perpetuate a myth re Lonhro only being able to win in sit and sprint races at 2000m. Go have a looksee at the 2002 Caulfield Stakes and you will see Lonhro and Sunline blitz the rest by six lengths in a time that was a mere 0.2seconds outside the track record.

Simply because he is seldom required to run times in his races, only ever needing to do what is required to win, does not mean his is not capable of doing so.



we'll see la mer.

also i think hawkes and beadman and quinn should have been outed for 6 months the way they rode freemason in the queen elizabeth. if thats not stable tactics i dont know what is.

[celebrity]

The only way Lonhro won't win is if he doesn't turn up.

[umrum]

On 2003-10-24 13:17, celebrity wrote:
The only way Lonhro won't win is if he doesn't turn up.
a lot of people said that last year but he couldnt keep up with champ

[La Mer]

It only gets better for Lonhro - track officially upgraded to Good at 1.30pm this afternoon - it is a beautiful sunny day in Melbourne and although there may be some rain forecast tomorrow at the worst the track may end up dead and Lonhro is unbeaten on such conditions six wins from six starts.

[Mark]

Is it because the last couple have been spectacular, or is the worst overall field in a long time? If Lonhro wins, the knockers will say he beat nothing.

As an aside, can anytone tell me the name of the favourite who fell at around the 400m, pale green colours, Oliver, Freedman, was also unbeatable. This is not a quiz, and I'm not losing any sleep over it, but it is driving me nuts trying to think of this horses name. Started with U ??????

:???:

[umrum]

was it naturalism

[Paddy]

Yep, that would have been my guess too umrum :wink:

[william]

LONHRO

WILLIAM :smile:

[crash]

Ok, after a dodgy modem has kept me out of this since Thursday [thank god I hear some say], All the bookies are now saying the black is "unbeatable" [but I 'll take your money at $1.40 thank you very much] in a talk up fest, so they think he is beatable for sure but he does have the "magic" barrier 7 [most wins this race].
The race should go to a lucky jockey as the M/V track might pull out the bias. Clangs problem is Cory Brown who's record down south ain't great and remember Clang is in this race only by accident, and Munce might be lucky on Roses to get a leader's bias and run home to win if we get a slow track.
FOO with King on board is the big danger to all of them. King is THE jockey against this lot of interlopers and has the home turf advantage. If FOO has the engine King will do the rest on this very tricky track.


If Lonhro wins tomorrow I will not be one of the knockers as he will then [only] deserve the big "c" title. What a pity they are going to retire him.

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-24 18:26 ]</font>

[Zulu]

Lonro will NOT win the Cox Plate I'm sorry to say. This is my view on the race, D.Beadman will be cracking the whip on Lonro 400 from home and will take 3-4 lenght lead but will be passed by 2 other horses namely Fields Of Omagh and Clangalang. So if you want to put Lonro in a trifecta here's mine for you.

1 Fields Of Omagh
2 Clangalang
3 Lonhro

Regards Zulu

[boxhead]

Hello people,
Said before-fast pace, lonhro will not win.
But????? is there one or two maybe that will go hard, Paraca reported to be high speed cruiser backed early, has not raced for months, how can you tell?
I hope the black wins,but will dodgey Defier do something?
As Kenchar Likes to say "fish & chips"
cheers

[Mark]

Cheers UMRUM, thank you, now I can get on with life. Naturalism, of course, started with a U ???, no wonder I couldn't think of it, at least there was a U in it.


:grin:

[TESTAROSSA]

Going to be smart and not have a bet in this race.

Hope the Black Flash bolts in....but i don't think he will win at all....Maybe a placing!!!

If i had to bet i would take (2) Defier from (7) Shower Of Roses.

Cheers.

[MyHatMyCoat]

Claganlang a special!

[Raw Instinct]

well there you go aparently he is beatable and I am happy to say i backed Fields of Omagh was having trouble picking between it and Clangalang but settled for it and am very happy that i did right now.

[Paddy]

Well there you go, hope some took the overs. :grin:

[Seeker11]

On 2003-10-25 18:04, Paddy wrote:
Well there you go, hope some took the overs. :grin:

Not to brag but I did call it early and got FOO at $17 :grin: :grin: :grin: