Alan Thomas Barriers

[The Late Mail]

I have said on numerous occasions on forums about Alan Thomas and his obsession with barrier positions.Barrier positions in my opinion are not worth looking at when doing the form.BAD BARRIERS BEAT BAD HORSES.

Here is an extract from the professional punter :
Box One Thomas

Here is what Brisbane racecaller Alan Thomas said after the completion of the second race at Doomben, a 1010 metres 2YO Open Handicap with nine runners. Swift Sequalo from barrier two won the race and ran down Small Planet which started from barrier eight:

"Number eight's the winner, Swift Sequalo, ridden by Nathan Day. See, one had the inside alley, one had the outside alley. One got the run on the fence behind the speed and the other one had to do too much work to get there and in the end that was the difference."

However it's also worth noting what Alan Thomas said at the beginning of the race:

"Small Planet didn't jump all that well. He's come out towards second last and he's skooting quickly on the outside with Roar Prospect going through on the inside to be the leader. Small Planet's outside him."

Now that tells us the real reason why Small Planet didn't win. He badly missed the jump. It's got nothing to do with barrier eight compared to the winner's barrier two. If Small Planet had jumped well from barrier eight and Swift Sequalo had missed the start from barrier two results would have been reversed.

It pays to ignore Alan Thomas's inside barrier winners theory. It is pretty much irrelevant if you're looking for winners. Horses are not greyhounds. END.

TRUER WORDS HAVE NEVER BEEN SPOKEN.

[kenchar]

Heres my shortest post.

TOTALLY AGREE

[topsy99]

i would never ignore barriers at doomben.

interesting that some tipped piachay as a longshot for saturday.
listening to alf matthews before the race saying he didnt think it had much chance from the outside barrier at moonee valley on saturday. think it was at the tail most of the way.
statistically barriers dont seem to count but generally i think they do particularly in good races.
i have heard john hawkes say that jockeys dont win races but barriers do.

[Mark]

I know it's only a miniscule sample. Of the 27 races last Saturday, Syd, Melb, Bris, 9 winners from inside half, 15 from outside, and 3 from middle barrier (odd number of starters.)
Week before, 15-12 to the inside runners.
So, 24 inside to 27 outside.
To me, barriers have little bearing.

[Mark]

Can anybody find stats over a longer period?

[topsy99]

as i said statistically it doesnt seem to matter but i feel more comfortable from inside barriers.
there is a publication on barriers. will post the details later.
gives all sorts of stats e.g. number of starters etc.
incidentally moonee valley is a track that seems to have a lot of outside barrier winners particularly the shorter distances.

[Paddy]

"Equine Investor" posted on the August 1, 2002:

"... I have recently done the barrier stats for someone on this forum who kindly did me a favour. The end result over thousands of races over various distances on various tracks and in varied going gave only a slight disadvantage percentage wise to extreme outside barriers.

The percentage difference over any distance was 1-2% and not even worth worrying about.

What this tells us is that the barrier must suit the horse's style of running.The way the race is run also dictates whether the barrier will be of any consequence. Even over short distances this was true.

For example I would not back a leader from an extreme outside barrier, but would back a swooper. But remember - there will always be exceptions to any rule, that's what keeps us on our toes!"

[topsy99]

there are obviously computer generated stats these days but the publication i had was called "barriers" published by Blue Ribbon Press in 1991.
moonee valley was 1000 93/119 1200 212/245 1600 228/228

morphettville is more so.

personally i would not be getting too involved with horses from wide barriers.

[crash]

G'day folks,

Barriers have been done to death here before and the outcome was a bit mixed.

M/V has a definate outside barrier bias due to the camber and suits local Jockeys. Note last Saterday as an example, the locals cleaned up regardless of barrier because they know the tracks down here better [just as regardless of where you live, do you notice that you win more in your home state ?].

Most published barrier results are misleading due to the simple fact that inside barriers have more runs than outside barriers due to field size [barriers 1-7 have more runs than barriers 8-16 and so on so naturaly produce more winners].

The general thing to look for is that leaders are naturaly better off sloted in inside barriers and its easy to work out what suits other runninng styles and what doesn't suit. Generaly good jockeys are little effected by barrier draw though a 3kg. claiming apprentice might have some trouble with a barrier that dosn't suit the horse's racing style.

The stats. that take field size into account from various race distances show very slight bias toward the inside but not enough to be meaningful. Basicly the longer the race the less it matters but wet track condt. increase the bias at some tracks more than others. With MV it seems to go the other way due to the camber according to the Jocks. When the rail is out at Caulfield jocks look for the lead and the fence, but when it is true the bias vanishes.

The thing is to realize that ALL tracks have built in bias and some more than others [the myth of the true track is still a myth] and it pays to find out as much as possible about the track you are betting on as there are no golden rules set in concrete that will apply to all tracks.
Part of the fun of racing.

Cheers.