Late-Mail v Tipsters Poll

[partypooper]

I've heard of, and even concocted a few systems using Tipsters Polls as the base for selections. Frustratingly after a large number of bets the end result always seems to hover around break even. I know this could probably be improved slightly using top fluc (or whatever) but was wondering if any forum members have followed and recorded "Late Mail" rather than the polls, just wondered if theres an edge there??

[alblyn]

last two weeks back, i watched this poll. with the radio and the tipsters, and the late mail, looking back the late mail came in last.then picking the first from radio and if tipster had the same, took his 2nd fav.2-selections but in the end -break even,r.hickson & s.templeton seemed the best - but again break even. i tried someones system just recently on this forum and last sat from melb-syd-doom picked 10 races and returned $24.90 win & $11.80 place, so will watch that one for a bit (paper only),my of been a one week wonder!!

[osulldj]

Hi Partypooper,

My race database captures the late mail selection in each race so I can tell you that for NSW, VIC, QLD, SA Metro races from 1/1/02 the late mail selection had a 24% strike rate and a return of -9.1% using the best of NSW TAB and SP.

[Chrome Prince]

Osulldj,

That's not too bad at all considering.

With a little tweaking I'm sure a profit could be extracted.

Could you tell me where this Late Mail info can be obtained?

I'd love to add it to my database as well.

[stebbo]

Hi CP,

you can scrape the late mail info off the Qld TAB website, at http://www.tabonline.com.au

I'm not sure if the late mail in Qld is the same as the late mail elsewhere. I'm not really sure where the late mail comes from, but I seem to have an idea that the bookies provide the late mail tips.. Anyone know for sure?

Cheers,
Chris.

[Mark]

Sorry to be a cynic, but my bet is that some "expert" pulls them out of his ....

[partypooper]

Osulji, thanks for the stats, most helpful, do you think that if being more selective, types of races etc etc, a better result could be achieved?

Mark, point taken, but then it makes you think that if the people in the industry with a hell of a lot of contacts and know how, that we will never have, can only manage to break even at best, where does that leave the rest of us???? I mean seems to me a lot of people should be writing for a position in the media if they can do so much better (present company excepted of course) But as Chrome says maybe with some tweaking some interesting results may be achieved.

[tragic]

i,m with you mark (i may be a cynic but i can just imagine a pimply little prick in the marketing department at a brainstorming session saying 'how about late mail tips to keep punters tuned in ) tragic says 'the more you lose the more you grasp at staws'

[tragic]

partypooper. seems to me tipsters tip because they have to not because they want to .if you want to have a good laugh write down a tipsters tips for a meeting have $50 bucks on each tip and at the end of the day you'll piss yourself laughing.

[partypooper]

Tragic, I'm sure ALL of the major publications will employ anyone at the drop of a hat that can turn a profit consistently on the punt!!!! (and at a great package as well)

[Shaun]

I Know a well known sydney so called expert that use to be a bookie about 20 odd years ago but changed to tipping because he went broke as a bookie and that was when bookies were makeing money....so that says a lot about tipsters

[Bhagwan]

The most favoured column in the Sat Australian has a strike rate of
28% 1st sel
17% 2nd sel
10% 3rd sel
Total 55% in top 3
or 45% in top 2

This is based on 2 years of results ,it had exactly the same percentage for each year.

So you could treat it as a 2 horse race,with the top 2, select the one you feel has the best chance of winning & only bet on it if you can get $3.30+ at jump time.

The reason for the $3.30 rule is if you back horses below that figure you will usually end up breaking even.
It`s the old ,one must try & obtain value .

[partypooper]

bhagwan, well guess that makes sense as most of the"POLL" selections will be overbet

[crash]

Try betting those selections where a tipster has a horse on top that no one ealse has tipped at all [meaning he has spotted something everyone ealse has missed]. Gets up often enough and always at good odds to make it worth while [Belus was one last Sat. at Flemington and at 50/1 was just pipped at the post but paid 9.10 for the place].

Cheers.

[osulldj]

partypooper,

I dont' think being more selective etc. would improve the results. Anything you come up with in this regard would be by conincidence and statistical backfitting.
What I could recommend though is someone starting with the late mail and applying some of there own filters to weed out poor bets and poor value bets. If they backed the remaining and were very good at obtaining prices in excess of the SP and TAB then they could grind out a 5% profit.

I don't have a great deal of respect for newspaper tipsters as far as being 'serious punters' but i think the criticism is a little harsh.

We should remember that firstly they are asked to tip in every race and I'm sure no one would consider betting in every race, and secondly, they have to submit tips in very tight time frames on a Thursday to make he print runs for Fridays papers. This is still 48 hours before the race with little time after final fields to actually study the form.

It's easy to be critical...I'd love to see one of these critics do their own tips for EVERY race by 5pm Thursday and put $50 on each of them...I don't think you would be laughing then...just much poorer.

[nedkelly]

Heya All

Just a new lad to the forum

osulldj - i was interested in the comments you made on this thread back in Jan 2002 on Late Mail vs Tipster

Interested if those Late Mail S/R figures have changed since then?

Also, where do you access the Late Mail for your dbase? (only raise as you have a Melb tag on your profile)
As a Sydneysider we get late mail on our 2KY radio service, but also notice that SKY Channel have mail for Melb from Alf Matthews.
Just want to make sure we are comparing like for like

Mainly interested in Mail for Melb & Sydney for Saturdays only.

BTW are there any forums, sites etc that rate the media tipsters?
Though can simpathise with the the constraints the bods at the papers are under.

Any thoughts or help greatly appreciated

Cheers

Ned

[good 4th]

Hi
I have tried using the late mail in 2003 for all races on the QTAB all days. At first it was a winner holy grail stuff but as most things I found you need a progressive staking plan with some days loosing your whole bank if one does not put in a stop measure in some where, it can work, but to make it work you will need a large bank,long run outs will kill you and all the hard work you have put in to making a Quid.

Cheers

[ubetido]

hi all

Late Mail is another quick way to the poor house.

I'd have to agree with Bhagwan on this the poll has a consistent % of results year to year.

regards
ubetido