Main contenders

[gunny72]

Has anyone ideas for eliminating from consideration horses with very little chance of winning a race? What methods are used to decide the main contenders in a race?

[crash]

The simple method Gunny is to ignore any horse not on the first five pre-post betting lines as most winners [80%] come from these or you can take the top five from reliable rateings. These methods are a good way of taking out a lot of confusion and keeping things simple [and or faster].

You can look at the prize money of races runners have competed in and never placed. If they are trying again for this prizemoney or more and regardless of weight usualy, they are just out of their 'class' and have trainers [or nagging owners] that have placed the horse badly beyond it's ability. Just look at the highest p/money they have ever won and compare what they are trying to win this time round. Failing this method The horse should have won a race with say 75% of new target and should be down in weight too to remain under consideration.

Cheers.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-19 17:20 ]</font>

[Bhagwan]

Here`s a way of eliminating high risk races with poor exposed form.

Only bet on races where the whole field has had at least 2 career starts.

Even if you could eliminate 1 less loosing race out of every 8 ,you will have improved you S/R by 12-14%

[crash]

Bhagwan, I think Gunny was trying to eliminate hopeless horses from betable races, not eliminate races. In that regard though I agree 100% with you point.

Cheers.

[darkydog2002]

Using the WIZARD.Anything over +3 in field strength or below wt.rating 91/time rating 92 gets the chop from me.
Cheers.
darky.