win pools

[puntz]

What is the procedure/formula, for working out how much is on a horse in relation to the win pool total?

Would it be,
If win pool = 10,000.00
and horse A is paying 3.50,
then is it 10,000.00 / 3.50 = 2857.14 ?
So therefore, out the total win pool, 2857.14 is on horse A ?

[michaelg]

Hi, Puntz.

It is my understanding that the amount in the Win pool (or any other pool)as shown on the TAB monitor is the gross amount wagered. That is, the 15% (more or less) TAB take-out has not been deducted from your example of the Win pool of $10,000.

So, the take-out of 15% ($1,500) is deducted from $10,000 which then gives a net pool of $8,500. If the dividend is $3.50, then there was approximately $2,428 ($8,500 divided by 3.50) wagered on the winning horse.

Maybe someone "in the know" can confirm this?

[puntz]

michaelg,
Thanks, I have asked around but not many seem too sure if deductions have been considered.

[becareful]

Michael is right - the pool amounts quoted by the TAB are the total amounts invested prior to their "cut". So you need to take off roughly 15% for win and place - more for the exotics and then do the calculation.

[puntz]

WIN POOL: 10,000.00
TAB
1 WP / 3.50 = 2857.14
2 WP / 6.00 = 1666.66
3 WP / 10.00 = 1000.00
4 WP / 2.50 = 4000.00

TOTAL= 9523.80 +/-
**************************************

WIN POOL : 10,000.00 LESS "TAX" 15% = 8500.00


TAB WP = 8500.00

1 WP / 3.50 = 2428.571
2 WP / 6.00 = 1416.666
3 WP / 10.00 = 850.00
4 WP / 2.50 = 3400.00

TOTAL= 8095.237 +/-

I don,t have a scientific calculator to get the exact sums correct.
But so far, at what point does the market show it is paying 3.50, before their take, or after their take?

And, do divs change if the win pool is adjusted? let's say if it's 3.50 at a 10k WP, then minus the 15%, is it still 3.50 ?

The reason for this, is to try and get to know as close as possible to the raw pools and prices and re-create the market as it should be.
I have rung the TAB, and no one was sure, or no one knew who was sure how the exact formula is.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-11-19 15:55 ]</font>

[Chrome Prince]

Puntz,

The end price shown on the screen is after the TAB takeout, but the pool is before the takeout.

If the pool changes, then the win price changes AFTER the deductions are taken out.

These calculations are not 100% accurate but close enough for demonstration.
Given your example:

The win pool is $10,000
The TAB takeout is $1,425
The available pool to the punter is $8,575 (the dividends are calculated on this figure)

Total amount bet on horse A $2,450
Total amount bet on horse B $1,429
Total amount bet on horse C $ 857
Total amount bet on horse D $3,430

Now if I have a $1,000 on each of horse B and horse C this is what happens to the pool and dividends:

POOL becomes $12,000
Extra money in pool available to punters is $1,715
Extra money in pool for TAB is $285

Dividends now change from this to this:
Horse A $3.50******* $4.20
Horse B $6.00******* $4.50
Horse C $10.00****** $6.00
Horse D $2.50******* $3.00


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-11-19 16:11 ]</font>

[puntz]

Thanks,
so the 3.50 div after the 15 % takeout, was infact 3.50 + 15% ?
Is then the price suppose to be approx. 4.00 ?

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-11-19 16:00, puntz wrote:
Thanks,
so the 3.50 div after the 15 % takeout, was infact 3.50 + 15% ?
Is then the price suppose to be approx. 4.00 ?


Correct puntz,
The correct dividend is approximately $4.02, but because of the takeout we end up with $3.50.

Interestingly, if we look at all horses starting at less than $3.00 on the tote, we end up with a 10% LOT on Metro tracks.
Therefore, no TAB takeout we make a level profit on the above of around 5% POT.

Highlights the importance of obtaining the best possible price on your selection for long term profit.

[puntz]

Yeah, then a further price drop after the start of the race due to late bets.