staking

[good 4th]

Questions?????I dont understand how level bettors can make a profit, as how do you know how much you will make for the day and when do u stop if you're in front, what to do if you're behind for the day. At least with Target betting you know all of this, lets say you target $100.00 for the day you know where you are at all times and yes using progressive betting as I believe this is the only way to recoup losses and make your target along the way...
Lets say you had a strike rate of 10%, 10 out of 100, one win every 10 bets you could make your target without getting into too much strife...Level betting could not do this, get my drift?
Imagine if your strike rate was higher, 20%.Thats 20 out of 100, Your target would have been achieved earlier.. so you could pack up for the day.
You might have some long run outs which will have to be checked out against the bank
So as level betting again, how do you return a profit??????
Thanks for listening

[becareful]

You return a profit by backing winners!

If you can't do it with level stakes then sooner or later your target betting will break your bank. Keep working on the handicapping skills until you get that right and THEN worry about how to bet them. That is the only way to make a long term profit in this game.

PS. If you cant do it with racing then have a look at some of the sports packages on this site - bookies margins on sports are much lower so it is easier to make a profit with the right information.

[tragic]

i'm with you good4 if you uderstand the risks and work within certain perameters punting this way is ok by me. but there will be many smarter than me who would disagree.

[partypooper]

mmmmmmm, just 2 pennyworth, I was also attracted to the idea of Target betting, and if fact did actually operate an idea that worked without breaking the bank for almost 2 years, but then the crunch came and I was wiped out. So now I am still interested but VERY wary, all can say is that if you have working bank with a maximum that you are prepapred to lose but more than one bank available. Then MAYBE it can work , in other words say you have a bank of $1000 (+ 2 reserve banks) and your target is $20 a day, working from day to day, always going back to $20 aim after a win, but if you lose the bank of $1000 then stop, and start again with a new bank. But one thing for certain is that no matter what your bank, sooner or later the dreaded losing run will break it.
I have some ideas that I incorporated as safety breaks, if your interested post your e-mail and I'll send em down the line.

[crash]

Becareful is dead right. If your strike rate is not good enough to make a profit at level stakes, no hair-brained progressions or target betting will save you in the long run. 'Recouping losses' should be forgotten and seen for what it is, a loosing stratergy.
More time spent on handicapping skills [often the least considered problem] and less on twisted staking formulas is obviously the first step requiring attention. Looking for winners in the $2 to $6 range, the second step towards a profitable return at level stakes for anyone that considers a 10% SR [looking for winners in the wrong odds range] good enough to keep out of trouble.
There is nothing wrong with specializing in longer price range winners [above $6 ], but until a profitable ability at the shorter end is achieved that proves handicapping skill, longshots should be left well alone.


Cheers.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-23 13:10 ]</font>

[Bhagwan]

If one is going to take up any progressive betting idea , it is wise to set up a rule for when to stop betting for the day .

A rule I have found to work very well ,is to stop betting on the day, once you have struck 10 loosers in a row for the day ,then start afresh the next day ,but this time ,trying to recoup a 3rd of the outstanding target + 1/2% of bank, once achieved, go for the next outstanding 3rd+1/2% of bank & so on .

I use divisors 3/1 min & 6/1 max.
Depending on their price at jump time.
This means if my selection is 10/1 at jump time on the TAB,I will bet it as if it is 6/1 max.,if it gets up ,I have secured overs.

On a good day ,many winners can be found targeting the 2nd & 3rd Tab favs at 1 min to jump time & backing the one with the-

1) Best career place % (1st,2nd,3rds).or

2)Any other mini handicapping method in your arsenal,for separating 2 horses.

You will find they all seem to work on their day but be prepared for when they dont work on a given day.
e.g. 10 outs in a row, on the day then stop , it`s not going to be your day.

Only bet on races where the whole field has had 2 career starts or more so as to avoid lower quality,lower class ,less exposed form, races.
This also helps reduce the long run of outs ,which is the killer for all progressive staking plans.

If you are target betting ,it`s an idea to start you target at 1/2 percent of the bank or less ,any higher & you will soon see how out of control it can get,if the wheels fall off.

Here are some mini handicapping plans to separate the 2 horses,which have had some excellent results.Using progressive betting.
1)Best place %.
2) Best av.prz.money.
3) Bet the widest barrier of the 2 .
4)Best last 2 placings once added together.
5)Bet the horse with best jockey according to the jockey table as shown on the AAP racing site.
6)Bet the one with best Neurolongarithim Rating as per AAP.


I would be interested to hear what other punters use as mini handicapping plans, to separate 2 horses.The simpler the better.

[crash]

If you can seperate 2 runners you can do that with 16 runners. Seperate into 8 lots of 2, eliminate one from each and then 4 lots of 2 and repeat above until 1 runner is left.

Other methods for splitting 2 runners might include the best 600m time [or best averaged], the most prizemoney last prep. or more simply the horse who has won the biggest 1st. prizemoney last prep., the best trainer and out of left field, pick the horse that is having a gear change [if applicable] or the one that has traveled the longest distance from it's home track to race.

Cheers.

[ozejon]

I prefer to consider punting as an investment in terms of growing the pool funds. This being the case, I only consider flat betting on the day while progressively (compounding) managing the pool long term. I suppose that working with a strategy that demonstrates a hit rate of 45% win / 78% place does make this approach a little easier.

Jon

[gunny72]

If you think about it, in the long run progressive staking is really a series of level staking plans run concurrently. The problem is the run of outs as discussed elsewhere in this forum. A 1 in 10 strike rate really needs to be able to sustain a run of 50 outs to be 99% sure of success. Target bettors make me want to take up bookmaking (unless they target odds at level stakes).

I also have a problem with trying to improve one's handicapping beyond a certain point. I feel there is a limit to how well anyone can predict winners through handicapping methods. People have been trying for years and only a very few have succeeded and that is because they have found an angle no one else is using. Also, most punters have the same information and hence come up with the same selections in the main, and these selections are priced accordingly, and hence are unwinnable in the long term.

Rather I feel to be successful at punting one has to pick the winners that very few other punters pick and hence get over the odds. I try to do this but really have to play off bookies and the TAB to get top odds to make any consistent headway. Either betting medium by itself leaves me with a break even system.

Happy analysis

[DR RON]

If you have lost say $200 over a series of 10 or 12 bets, why try to get it it back in 1.I would aim to get it back over 7 or 8 and then start over.

[osulldj]

Rather than try and improve handicapping skills or come up with clever betting schemes...most punters could improve their punting results by a minimum of 30% if they they improved their decision making in each race.

Decision making is what comes after you have analysed a race, sorted your contenders and understood what the market is telling you.

Identify the right situations to play and the situations to avoid betting is the single most important factor to punting sucess.

Just because you like a horse and think it will win, thats no reason to back it. Just because your price says $3.50 and the market say $3.80 or $4.00, that is no reason to back a horse.

There is always a much broader context and scenario you are faced with in each race, some are good to bet and others are not so good. Spending time learning how to identify these situations and make appropriate decisions is the key to winning and most importantly knowing that you can do it year in year out.

Spend time on this element of your punting skill and your results will dramatically improve, almost overnight. A good place to start is to go back over your winners (assuming you keep records) and look at the scenarios you were presented with in those races. How did your horse(s) stack up against other contenders? was it your top pick? how big was its advantage? How did the market have the race? Who was the favourite? How did you assess that horse? What about the other market challengers? What did you feel about the overall race? There are numerous other questions.

The principle is that one of the best ways to identify the good situations to play in is to review the situations where you have enjoyed success in the past. Sooner or later a pattern will emerge and you will start to get a good feel for when it is 'right' to launch in and bet. Next time you are confronted with that situation you will know and bet with confidence. Focus on those situations in betting and your results will improve.

ALternatively, you will also get a feel for the times when you are confronted with a situation that hasn't proven historically successful, regardless of how much you liked the horse.

The difference between the punter who battles losing a small amount each year (if they are honest with themselves) and the punter who consistently wins each year is not necessarily handicapping skill or some clever betting plan...the successful punter is skilled and ruthless in identifying which situations to bet in and which situations to leave alone.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-11-25 21:34 ]</font>

[gunny72]

Yes osulldj, I agree with you totally. Seriously punting requires extensive study of the races and racing. The knowledge gained can be analysed by the human mind much better than any set of betting rules or a computer can do.

The one period I was consistently successful at punting was during my student days. Each week on Thursday I would purchase the Sportsman and do a preliminary analysis of every race in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne and I would settle on what I considered were good chances in each race. During Friday I would look carefully at each race and each of my chances in the race compared with the other horses. I would consider times, weight and more importantly which horses has beaten which, and come up with a possible selection in every race. After scratchings on Saturday morning I would then make a final decision and discarded most races. If I had between 6 and 10 bets left I would go to the track and even then I could change my mind on whether to bet depending on the market.

The point I want to make is that after doing this for several weeks I had built up a working knowledge in my mind of the ability of many of the horses currently running and out of the 24 odd races each week I could usually quickly zero in on some that were well placed to win a race.

This approach of course takes a lot of time and effort and I am not game enough to do this at the expense of my day job. Betting systems are really only for the hobby punter, which I now am, and I enjoy investigating them even though I know deep down what the correct approach should be. But for me it is just relaxation and I get the satisfaction of occasionally snaring a good priced winner. My mechanical method takes about 30 seconds a race to find the selection and has broken even most years for the last 10 years.

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-11-25 21:26, osulldj wrote:
Just because your price says $3.50 and the market say $3.80 or $4.00, that is no reason to back a horse.


osulldj,

With all due respect this is probably one of your worst statements that you've made.

The exact opposite is the key to success providing your ratings are accurate, but we're all different.

[crash]

Decision making is very important [ confidence should be just as important ] but not before hadicapping skills surely and should these skills be put in the same boat as 'fancy ideas' as you seem to have done Osulldj ? I would have thought they were totaly different animals.

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-26 10:10 ]</font>

[osulldj]

Hi Chrome,

I thought my statement would arouse a little response. It goes against the grain or "set your prices and bet the overs" that has been espoused for more than 30 years. I think it is only partially right in its education of punters though...Perhaps I should explain myself further....

The principle is that you should bet when you have an advantage, I think we all agree on that?

However, just because you price a horse at $3.50 and it is $3.80 or $4.00 in the market, that doesn't necessarily mean you have an advantage worthwhile betting into. By itself it is nothing more than a mathemtical difference in the price you have given to an individual runner.

To have an advantage, you have to know what it is and why it exists...a price difference is not an advantage in itself.

Too many people do their ratings, churn out prices and think that diffences in price represent an advantage and all they have to do is bet the overs without another thought and everything will be sweet.

The problem is that first of all one is assuming their analysis and ratings are correct...thats fine we are all confronted with that issue...secondly and more importantly, it relies on the method you use to price being absolutely spot on at estimating winning chances. Really, if you have a 2 points difference in your ratings, can anyone honestly say their approch to converting those to a price is absolutely correct? Of course not.

If you price your top pick $2.80 and in the market it is a $3.10 favourite does that mean you have an advantage? Both you and the market have it as the horse to beat...and there is just a $0.30 differencce in your price...or an estimated 3% difference in winning chance.

The difference is a purely mathematical one, not a winning advantage...especilly when you and the market have the same opinion that is is the horse to beat. There is a broader context you need to understand to confirm whether or not there is an advantage.

The only way there is an advantage is if you have a belief with a firm reason why, that the market has something wrong in betting.

Maybe the 2nd favourite in the market is $4, but you don't think it has anywhere near that chance because of some form based reason, or conditions of today's race. Okay, now you have a sense of an advantage The market thinks the 2nd fav is a strong challenger to the fav but you don't think it is at all...if you are right, then the favourite is likely value. Is the fav a $2.80 chance as your price says? Who knows, it doesn't really matter....all you know is that you have an advantage and the horse is some value at $3.10.

Alternatively the 2nd fav could be $4 and you have it priced at $4.50...both you and the market see it as some logical danger, but there is a slight mathematical difference in your prices. In this situation you don't have an advantage, I can guarantee it.

Avoid betting in these type of situations and focus on the type presented above and I can guarantee that results will improve ...especially for those that set their prices and currently focus on just betting the overs.

A difference in price doesn't mean you have an advantage. The difference is slight but I hope it makes sense. :smile:




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-11-26 10:23 ]</font>

[osulldj]

On 2003-11-26 08:17, crash wrote:

Decision making is very important [ confidence too ] but not before improved hadicapping skills surely and should these skills be put in the same boat as 'fancy ideas' as you seem to have done Osulldj ?

Cheers.


Hi Crash,

It was remiss of me to group handicapping skills in the same group as fruitless betting schemes. Handicapping skills are an essential element to success...in fact you must become a good handicapper before anything else. If you can't pick winners then you have no hope..there's no question about that.

In making my point, I was trying to say that top handicapping skills only get you a ticket to the game. There are thousands of good selectors out there and many people have poured years of hard work and research into becoming strong handicappers, but still can't win on the punt.

The skill that bridges that gap is judgement and decision making. Understanding the right and wrong scenarios and being ruthless about the races to bet in and the races to leave alone. Only betting when you have an advantage and you know what it is.

I can confidentally say that anyone who already has good handicapping skills desn't need to pick more winners to make money on the punt...they need to understand race and betting scenarios better and more become skilled and ruthless in those thing I mentioned above.

Cheeers :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-11-26 10:26 ]</font>

[Chrome Prince]

osulldj,

Apologies for my harsh response earlier, after your explanation I see what you're driving at now.

The accuracy of the ratings or overs must be a primary consideration.

Cheers.

[pardon me]

hi folks been watching this forum for a while so thought it is time to put in my 2 bob's worth.level stakes vs progression, interesting, i have tried them all over years and to me it gets down to how good one is at picking winners and then developing a betting stratergy to suit ones temprement.for 7 mths now i have been using a progression method, moderate in the increases applied and my selections have ave.19%win at ave about$5.30 , break even, but using my progression i have a pot of 11%, not big but as i turnover circa $2200 p/week it is worthwhile. i am not saying there is one way that is best but this works for me so far, some bad runs of outs , worst was 27 and took away all profits plus some but it has come back . As long as the bank can stand it and the nerves hold out it returns. anyway i enjoy the interesting and thought provoking comments by the group,cheers

[gunny72]

I still contend that you only have a real advantage if you back winners that very few other punters also back. This business of handicapping/pricing was fine when it was first used but these days it is irrelevant because too many do it including bookies. That is why its originator gave it away.

[partypooper]

Hi Crash & all,
A bit slow on the reply (a bit busy at work) Yes of course your comments about level stakes profit is accepted. The comparison though was levels as against target betting.
I think that there is a case for target betting when using a method that already shows a level stakes profit or even "break even" as "PERDON ME" has demonstrated.
Crash, Be-careful, Chrome, all your comments appreciated.

[crash]

I would like to know who the 'originator' of 'hadicapping/pricing' skills was who 'gave it away' because it's now 'irrelevant' ?

So what did the 'Originator' come up with to replace those now irrelevant skills ? I'm all ears.

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-03 07:22 ]</font>

[darkydog2002]

CRASH.Great idea the separation of 2 runners etc etc.
I like races 1200-1600 so another good idea is to see who are leaders or race on the pace.I feel the shorter the race the more important these 2 factors become.
Cheers.
Darky.

[Lenny]

Hi all,

The thread is a little cool but I'd like to make a comment. Osulldj, I think you are absolutely spot on. You comments have had me completely reassess the notion of what the "right" race is. I'd suggest all readers heed his comments.

Crash, you said:
/
I would like to know who the 'originator' of 'hadicapping/pricing' skills was who 'gave it away' because it's now 'irrelevant' ?
/

I would venture that it was Don Scott, whos books "Winning" and "Winning More" brought punting into the modern age of value betting. As gunny72 said and I would concur, he gave it away when the bookies and everyone else was onto him (probably a result of his first book!).

Crash, you also stated that:
/
So what did the 'Originator' come up with to replace those now irrelevant skills ? I'm all ears.
/

Its not so much as his weighting system is irrelevant, it is just that everyone is doing it, all but eliminating value. That is why Osulldj's comments are so important - the value punter now needs to look for that loophope that the 'educated' punter is missing - a much harder task than in the days of Don Scott, surely!

~Lenny


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Lenny on 2004-01-07 22:03 ]</font>