framing Your own market

[Bhagwan]

Here is a usefull tool for those into framing their own markets which does not cost much.
It is called Bet Master from Inracing.com.au

You can frame a market using wt. ratings as per TABQ or speed ratings out of the Wizard race paper.
win or place percentages , tipping poll from the Wizard etc .
You can adjust the percentages accordingly taken from the pre post market.

One way it can be used is to load the top 6 in the pre post prices from any newspaper.
You then adjust the percentage to 90%,then bet the overs.
We are assuming the top 6 pre post win 75% of the time plus we add the approx 15% TAB take out=90%

Check it out .
Best to use it on races where the TAB fav is paying $3.60+ at jump time.

[crash]

Not sure of the pitch here Bhagwan but could you explain that 90% bit again and why the need to find 6 contenders [6 to price]?

I frame my market to 80% for the usual 3 or 4 contenders I come up with which might work out as 5/2 for my top pick and 7/2, 5/1, 6/1 for the others. My bet is usualy the runner with the best value compared to tote/bookie and may include backing two of the longer priced runners due to value and/or field size.

Is there a point in taking on a race that has more than 4 possible contenders that need pricing unless it is for exotic betting ? Most races seem to come down to 3/4 contenders after handicapping. 6 contenders [6 horses with winning claims] would be hard to find. Does your method here only target those races ?

Cheers.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-25 16:41 ]</font>

[Bhagwan]

As I said ,it`s only one method .
You might find your method works better for your liking.

[Bhagwan]

I believe the idea of framing a market is to work out you average strike rate, say 65% with you top 4 selections ,plus the 15% that the TAB takes out of the price the put up .
This totals 80% this could be the correct market % to work around.

We as punters are always competing against that 15% take out , thats why so many punters complain that they only manage to break even with a number of good handicapping techniques.

[becareful]

We as punters are always competing against that 15% take out , thats why so many punters complain that they only manage to break even with a number of good handicapping techniques.

Only if you are silly enough to bet with the TAB! Using Divi+ (or the Sportingbet equivalent), fixed price and Betfair you can easily reduce the "takeout" to around 5-7% without too much difficulty at all. (At the short end of the market you can reduce it to almost zero).