Golf Arbitrage

[michaelg]

The current Betfair betting market on the U.S. Masters is 80.9%. I would assume the list of players of 24 is incomplete and that others not yet shown may qualify?

[michaelg]

I forgot to mention that about five minutes before the commencement of today's Australian Masters that the Betfair market was under 97%.

[Mark]

Michealg
Yep, I saw the US market as well & thought I had struck gold, until I realised that there are a lot more than 24 starters.
Trap for the unwary methinks. Unless of course the winner comes from those listed.

[michaelg]

Hi, Mark.

I remember some time ago Mark Read offered head-to-head odds on a certain boxing match. The match was a draw, and because he did not offer any odds for the draw there was a huge outcry because every one who had a bet with him could not win. I do not know what was the final outcome - if money was refunded, the bets voided or whatever.

So, if someone backs a current golfer on the Betfair list, and a late entry or an unlisted golfer wins, I wonder then if there is some justification to argue that it was impossible to back the winner when the bet was made, just as was with the "Mark Read" scenario.

[zeditave]

Michaelg,
That's actually false - I happened to work for Read at the time and the draw was always an option in that fight. However of all the complaints (20+), two phone calls were found where the operator left out the draw, those bets were voided.

Can't remember the fighters involved - big heavyweight fight in 1999, Don King was the promoter.

[zeditave]

and as for the Betfair golf scenario - it's like nearly every other bookie - others added upon request....

[Mark]

Zeditave

Do you still work fo him?, if so what's happening with the Caloundra setup. Betting exchange or just bookie-ing some meetings, or all?.

Mark

[Rock Steady]

Hi zeditave,
I have been betting with IAS for about nine months and have noticed a disturbing trend.
You might be able to enlighten me as you used to work there.
I bet on greyhounds with IAS via the internet and in the last month or so, every winner I back with IAS returns the shortest dividend on the NSW tote. IAS offer NSW tote odds plus a very small bonus for the greyhounds.
I generally only have around $100 to $200 the WIN on my greyhound selections and since March, my bank with IAS has grown from $3000 to $13000. My win strike rate is consistently around 33% and I win at around 70% of meetings I bet at. I have been betting on dogs for a living for a number of years.
I have noticed that all my bets are coming up real short on the NSW tote and I wonder if IAS are back betting my selections because they want to get rid of them.
When I joined IAS, they assured me that they don't back bet for small bets but I'm just wondering if you could shed some light on this matter.
I am probably better off reverting to what I have done for years and that is just bet the three totes for equal amounts. I don't feel like I should be tipping IAS on my hard work. I put in about 40 hours per week on form study via videos etc.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Rock Steady on 2003-12-17 11:56 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Rock Steady on 2004-01-05 08:22 ]</font>