CLASS & WEIGHT AND/OR TIMES ??

[AIRMETS]

I have for about 10 years now experimented with class & weight ratings per methods of the late Don Scott with moderate success. Like anything good , the majority have jumped on the bandwagon which is why most of my ratings are invariably similar to that of our dear friend Mr Bookmaker.

In recent times (pardon the pun)I have been developing a ratings schedule based on class and times , hoping to determine through times when a horse is nearing peak fitness and thus nearing his peak weight rating. I am only in the early stages of research however I would be interested if anyone else is thinking along similar lines.

I am fully aware that Don Scott ridiculed times as a "sole" basis for form in both his publications of Winning More , with which I agree entirely - that is as a "sole" basis of form. I can't help but think however that a horse that say finished tenth , 4 lengths behind the winner with the quickest last 400m sectional in the race , would infact be nearing peak fitness. A traditional weight rating does not reflect fitness whereas a time rating would (I think)indicate when a horse is reaching peak fitness and hence , its peak weight rating. This horse under traditional weight handicapping methods may return a rating of say 55kg. Its final sectional however may indicate it's nearing peak fitness , where its peak weight rating is say 65kg. A 10kg differential in a horse's base rating for the forthcoming race will have a huge impact on the assessed price.

Does anyone have an opinion on times as an essential method to determing a horses peak fitness ? As stated previously , I am in the virgin stages of developing a class/times schedule therefore I do not have any data or evidence to support my theory. I would be very interested in any constructive feedback that you may have.

Thanking you in advance for your thoughts and comments.

Regards
Airmets

[jaffa]

Hi Airmets.

I think that you are working along correct lines.

I follow times and class to a degree.

If a horse is beaten more then 4 lengths, which is a far distance if you backed it, I would leave it out next run.

Things you my like to look at in regard to finishing times is if they made up 5 places from the 400 and finished within 4 lengths then they are ready to back next time .

Or if they run a class, race or track record they are ready to win if beaten less then 4 lens.

But with 1 large proviso -- they must have win rate on normal tracks of 16% min and 40% place ( i prefer 20% & 50 % )other wise it may have been a fluke run as they haven't been consistent in the past.

Cheers mate

[crash]

I had some tables [ somewhere ] that had corrected +/- times based on a city track as the standard and allowed for good,dead, slow and heavy condt.. Looked for them but can't find them. I had some success useing time/weight based on these tables but there are problems with rail movements [mainly] that can dramaticly effect times. Australia has a problem of too many tracks and they are often all over the show with hills and turns with varied tightness etc. I think those tables came from a very old edition of PPM. someone here may still have the copy concerned [ ? ].

The best indication of race condition is the weight of the horse. The punter can then plot the form from approaching peak fitness to decline going on weight from last prep. England weighs horses but not here which is a pity.

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-05 08:41 ]</font>