Change of Barriier System

[Bhagwan]

Heres a plan that has a logical twist that has not been pursued very much.

We concentrate on the top 4 horses in either Pre-Post market ,ratings subscription, top 4 place ranking or average prz money ranking,etc.
I feel the subsription services would produce more larger priced winners as opposed to the pre-post market.

The top 4 in the pre-post market has a 70%SR

RULES
We back the 2 horses with best barrier advantage between its last start & todays barrier draw after scratings.

E.G. If last start was barrier 13 & todays barrier is 3 ,we have a +10 point advantage If last start barrier was 1 & todays barrier is 11,we have now a -10 point disadvantage.

Sometimes there will 3 selections because of a draw in points, so its an idea to back all 3.

You will see it works very well if your 4 selection process has a strong SR.& try & target races with a fav paying $3.10+
Plus target races where the whole field has had 2 or more starts.

It would be interesting to see other peoples findings.

[crash]

Bhagwan,

If the top 4 have a 70% SR then how about useing that in a 1 x field tri. ? I assume that 1 performs better than 2 etc. so a 1 x field in races of say 9 runners [$36 for a half unit] or even 10 runners [$45] might have legs [?] or am I displaying my near ignorance of the realities of exotics ?

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-16 08:12 ]</font>

[Bhagwan]

If you were to target all four horses in a 10 horse field in a trifecta.The cost would be 1*9*8=72 Times 4=$280 O/L
9 horse field 1*7*6=42 Times 4= $168 O/L

[becareful]

Weren't you paying attention in class last week Bhagwan? There is no advantage in barriers as far at POT goes so therefore we can conclude that the change in barrier would be irrelevant as well! :smile:

[crash]

No Bhagwan, clearly I ment targeting the barrier that produces the most winners from the first 4 barriers, not trying to cover them all. Barrier 1 x field x field [ 1x8x8 others = $56 or 1x9x9 others = $72 for a full unit] which covers 9 or 10 horse fields.

If barrier 1 wins more than the other 3 it might be what, 20% WR from the 70% total ? That would mean barrier 1 wins 20% of all races ? A 1 in 5 chance of the 1 x field tri. winning. That was my reasoning based on your stats. I am obviously not an exotics punter [mostly win only] but if barrier 1 wins the most from 1/2/3/4 it does raise tri. speculation regarding barrier 1 [only].

Your Stats do seem to contradict barrier stats., but Becareful may be wrong in his assumption. Even if stats show that inside and outside barriers produce [almost] the same number of winners that does not mean that there isn't a strong bias toward the 1/2/3/4 among the inside barriers. But your figure of 70% suggests a winning bias toward inside barriers generaly. However Becareful, looked at carefuly and remembering those four barriers run more than any other barriers [a point you overlooked I think], the 70% figure for them could indeed be correct !!

Cheers.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-17 08:28 ]</font>

[Bhagwan]

Hi Crash,
I see what your saying now,
The idea is not based around which barrier has the highest SR but the horses with the stronger barrier change compared to last start.
I take your point about the Trifectas & it is a good one,.
It should work if you target the right races which represent value.

[Bhagwan]

To Becarefull
Proove it.

[becareful]

Have a look at the topic titled "Barriers" on the Horse Racing forum. The stats were looking at races with 14 or more starters but with smaller races there is less variance. Inner barriers have a higher strike rate but a lower POT than the outside barriers. You have a big database - why not have a look yourself at the POT by barrier.

[Bhagwan]

We are discussing change of barrieir not actual barrier.
My data base shows there is an advantage .
SR & POT

[crash]

Bhagwan, lets put the baby to rest. How does the system perform from back fitted stats.?

Cheers.