Faves to Place System

[hermes]

Another mini-system with the objective of snaring long runs of placegetting favourites, this time any race. We depend on runs of strikes rather than big margins. Data is from the TABQ website.

1. Eliminate all races with more than one 100 rater.
2. Clear favourite in betting minute to jump.
3. Radio Tabs first selection.
4. Rated 100.

Now to use a very simple points system that only takes a second:

The contender starts with 100 points.
Subtract the last race result. (Third in last race means you minus 3 from 100 = 97)
Subtract the TAB number. (Saddlecloth #2 means you minus two, viz. 97 - 2 = 95)
Subtract barrier number.

Best possible is 97. An unchallenged 100 rated, pollster-tipped clear favourite last-start winner carrying #1 in barrier one. I don't have the stats but my surmise is that such beasts place often enough though not averaging much of a pay out.

Consider anything scoring over 90. Used with some wise judgement this should generate strings of placegetters. Note "should". I only have a very small sample, but this is a streamlining of other ideas that seem to have some legs.

The formula: 100 minus last start minus TAB number minus barrier.

For those that object to using last starts as a factor, my rationale is that the last start of a favourite IS meaningful. You can safely assume that among the scores of punters who are backing this horse into favouritism some have bothered to see if its last start was a good third at a metro meet or a scraggy third 20 metres off the winner in a maiden at Horsham without having to check it yourself.

Hermes

[sportznut]

Great minds think alike. I was thinking of suggesting VERY similar rules when someone asked recently about systems involving the TAB ratings. Your idea looks good!

My only question would be the value aspect. I think a few of these selections could be pretty short!!! Would you put a price limit on the final selections?




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2003-12-17 09:18 ]</font>

[puntz]

How is a saddlecloth number related to a horses form?

[hermes]

We exploit the bias towards topweights. In practise this system is limited to runners #1-4 or 5, the band where we find most winners, because runners with higher TAB numbers subtract too much from the points system to be selected.

I realise that this gives low pay-outs. Lots in the $1.20 - $1.30 area, and quite a few $1.10s or money-backs.

Obviously we avoid money-back, but otherwise we seek runs of strikes, regardless of how small the return. You don't need big margins for every placegetter if you can consistently pick series of four or five or more placegetters in a row without an out.

But then you need an appropriate staking strategy, parlay style. The objective is to get good returns over a series of races, not in one race. So if you get the occasional $1.10 return, it doesn't matter as long as it is in a series of succesful bets.

With systems like this I run several banks (an idea I pinched from this forum, long time ago). In one I am betting I can pick two placegetters in a row, in another three in a row and in another four in a row. Low returns in a race or two don't really matter. I always figure, in any case, that $1.30 is still 30% return - not bad in any other market.

In short, these are systems where we sacrifice big margins for a high strike rate and try to milk a profit out of that. Everything depends on strike rate and also the pattern of strikes. No good if you get single outs breaking up sequences of strikes. Better to have sequences of outs followed by sequences of strikes. As far as this can be predicted.

In my brief tests this system behaves like that: characteristically, sequences of strikes and then sequences of outs. Which is promising - if you apply the right staking strategy to match that pattern of results.

Hermes

PS:- To head off any suggestion otherwise, I am not saying you can make a loss into a profit by creative staking. It has to win at level stakes first.

[crash]

Had a few goes at short place selection systems Hermes and all it takes is a few outs in a row to kill any head way. I'm sure it may work but TAB place odds are atrocious

Cheers.

[hermes]

Hi Crash, agreed. Its always an uphill battle with the miserable TAB returns. But it can be done. I make a regular profit from several concurrent placegetter systems. But if I factored in the time dedicated to it it still wouldn't be worth the effort. That's the real catch. The time factor. So I'm concentrating on systems that are quick and easy to use.

I count myself as a small-fry punter. If I was betting serious dollars I'd be looking for someone offering better prices than the TAB. That's for sure.

Hermes

[Merriguy]

Have you tried Testarossa's system, Hermes? I have found it fascinating to see the results from what is and all-up idea.

http://www.propun.com.au/forums/viewtopic.php?topic=1201&forum=7