This is a good way to make selections

[flintstone]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: flintstone on 2003-12-27 20:41 ]</font>

[crash]

Nothing wrong with that little lot Flintstone. I use a system that is very similar in conjunction with normal handicapping and quite often the system selections return more profit. Especially during difficult handicapping periods that might be due to the time of year and/or lack of time to handicap races fully.

Can you use this method for UK racing ? Are there other considerations you take into account like UK track conditions ? What about the weight of the horse ? I hear that in UK horses weights are published so that info. can be used to predict winning form.

Cheers.

[hermes]

Hi Flintstone. That is a good way to make a selectionv for placegetters. I appreciate precision place betting. But a few too many selections in Oz per week for me. During holiday periods when I have time I apply a similar method but I'm seeking three place bets per day, usually a favourite (5 units), a second favourite (3 units) and a longer priced runner (2 units).

My selection method is based on the old "Nines" trick: take the best three of the last four starts, add them together and eliminate runners scoring above nine. In effect, Flintstone, your selections are much the same in that anything worse than 3-3-3 is out.

I also have no qualms about checking selections with the tipsters and commentators. Why not? They have way more time to devote to studying form than I do. If my selection has no backing among the experts I rarely presume that I am right and they are all wrong.

Thanks for the contribution. Good luck in the UK.


Hermes

[Merriguy]

Somehow it seems a lot of work for a place selection!!

Now I enjoy place selecting myself; but unless you place a mighty wager -- $500 or so -- is it worth it? And then, of course, in the case of tote bettors like myself, you distort the pool.

[partypooper]

Hemes re: Nines how is a 0 in the form penalised??

[hermes]

A zero in the form figures disqualifies because it counts as 10 points, Partypooper. But as I say I take the best three results of the last four starts, so there is room to overlook a zero or similar result. Thus the figures 3-0-4-2 qualifies. "Nines" is a very old trick, I hear. Goes way back among punters. I still find it very useful to have in my bag of tricks.

[flintstone]

Hi Crash & Hermes,

Thanks for both your comments.

The method of selection that I have posted, I find that it works pretty well anywhere, especially in Australia/UK/Ireland. As you can see, I am a ‘Place Bettor’. As for many punters in Australia, I find the ‘place payout’ can be pitiful these days, but that’s not always the case.

Over many, many years I have studied racing in the UK – USA & Australia. When one looks at the ‘overall picture’ the figures and percentages add to the same. In other words, it’s no different in the U.K. Than it is in Australia.

When I look at the ‘form’ and this is only my personal view, I am interested in ‘recent form’ that being the last 4 weeks. Obviously I am looking for ‘good form’

The form 1-1-1 when running the next time out, (and this applies to ALL the countries mentioned above), won approximately 31% - the prices were predictably low and I am hesitant of supporting this horse on its next run. These days I would look at laying this one.

Horses showing the form 1-3-1 / 2-3-1 / 1-2-2 / 3-2-1 / 4-3-1 / and 4-2-1

Won between 28% and 30% - with the above, except one, all had won ‘the last time out’.

So, one horse in three is successful and if 3 or 4 horses are running in the same race with this kind of form, only one can win – and it probably will. The average has been achieved. With this, I have also had my 66% losses – all in one race!

I don’t bet on races with more than 2 horses showing this type of form – and then for a Place Bet Only – chances are both will be placed, if so then I make sure that only 1 horse has this ‘win’ last time out.

Just one other point on reading the form. The form could for example be …. 0-0-4 …at least this horse looks like it is improving… but when checking further back …I might find that when this horse came 4th, there were only four runners and with the 3 horses that came 1st 2nd and 3rd, winning by 4,5 and 6 lengths, this leaves the result of 4th of little use.

Anyway these are my personal thoughts and I do appreciate all the comments that are being made.

Regards
Freddy.

[Lenny]

Hi Freddy,

What is the method we are discussing here? It seems to have disappeared from you first message.

Thanks,

~Lenny