New member seeking handicapping advice

[TheAvenger]

Hello. I am an American who plays Aussie races almost nightly on America tab. I have played horses in the US for over 20 years, Australian thoroughbreds for about a year. I enjoy your version of the sport very much, and want to learn to be a better handicapper and punter. This site is an informative and enjoyable read. Thanks.

Glenn

[MyHatMyCoat]

G'day TheAvenger, welcome to our forum. Couple of questions if I can be so nosey -
where do you place your bets on Aussie races & (briefly) what does an environmental chemist do? Cheers

[sportznut]

Have you seen this site:
http://www.australianracing.com/

If you haven't, then it is a pretty good starting point. Apart from that, we'd be glad to help you out! :smile:

[TheAvenger]

I bet on Brisbet,(www.brisbet.com) which gives me 2 tracks a day, "A" and "B" (night in my case) Today it was Bendigo and Goulburn. I lost a bit.

An environmental chemist here in Oklahoma generally tests soil and water for traces of fuel that has leaked from underground petrol storage tanks.

Have a great day.

Glenn

[TheAvenger]

Thanks for the site, I will read it over. What is everyones's opinion of Tony Brassel's picks on Sky? We often have him on our live video giving his picks, especially on Fridays.

Glenn

[stebbo]

On 2003-12-19 17:33, TheAvenger wrote:
Thanks for the site, I will read it over. What is everyones's opinion of Tony Brassel's picks on Sky? We often have him on our live video giving his picks, especially on Fridays.

Glenn


In my opinion, Tony couldn't pick his nose....

Seriously, I haven't done a proper study of his tips, but my general impression is that they stink...... You would reckon that someone with all his knowledge should be able to tip better than that... And quite often the one he tips is short... probably shorter than it should be.... Don't forget there's a lot of mug punters sitting at home with their phone accounts betting on anything that gets displayed as a tip...

Just the other day I was going to back something... it had been hovering around the $8 mark all morning, hardly a move.... it then got announced as Tony's "special", and it started at about $2.20... go figure.

Cheers,
Chris.

[kenchar]

On 2003-12-19 17:33, TheAvenger wrote:
Thanks for the site, I will read it over. What is everyones's opinion of Tony Brassel's picks on Sky? We often have him on our live video giving his picks, especially on Fridays.

Glenn


Back AGAINST his SPECIALS and you should clean up

Cheers

[sportznut]

Well, I don't think Tony Brassell's tips are quite that bad, but I don't think they're anything special either. Anyway for tomorrow, the A meeting is the Villiers Stakes meeting at Randwick and the B meeting is at Flemington, so two of the big tracks to bet on there.


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[BettyBoop]

Rate Tony B OK. His selections (especially the ones out of 'left' field) are always worth a look.

[sportznut]

I think Mark Guest did the tips today, didn't he?
Anyway, whoever did the Sky specials today only managed 1 win and 3 placings from 8 tips.



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[Shaun]

Welcome the Avenger...you have come to the best place to find out about our racing...it would be easier to ask you what is it you don't know about Aussie racing or what you would like to know.....do you use speed rateings to handicape a race as i know a lot of Americans use these.....if you do you need to talk with someone from this forum that uses them as they are not widely used here and are far less reliable due to our different types of tracks.....i would suggest sticking to saturday races as these are the best in terms of class.....you say that you only get 2 tracks i would assume that these are from the 3 main states melbourne/Sydney/brisbane are you formiliar with our race classes....if there is anything you need to know just ask we will try to help

[topsy99]

i use class, weights and a good horse from a good barrier is a good chance.

ref tony brassel or any professional tipster needs stats to keep their jobs.
so tipping the first 3 favorites in order will give 35% outcome which on paper always looks a good result. but doesnt give good prices or a lot of thrills.
good luck.

[TheAvenger]

Morning. Gosh what wonderful responses! Yes, I try to use Oz numbers to handicap, but they are off and on, I now know why! I guess I need to learn basic Aussie handicapping from all angles, read all I can, and figure out what works for me. I mostly bet quinellas, boxing 3 or 4 and even sometimes 5. Other times I wheel one with a few. I do bet some flat money also. I notice the mention of various systems here, the likes of which I've had little luck with in American racing. Thanks everyone.

Glenn

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[sportznut]

I always find it amazing the different terminology that is used by Australian and American punters. Sometimes, you'd swear it was two totally different sports!!!

Anyway, again purely as a starting point for you, this is not a bad site to use:
http://www.tabonline.com.au/

Go to their racing section a hour or two before the meetings start, click on the tracks you want and you will usually find two sets of tips at the top of each race. If you combine these tips and the ratings that appear on the right side of the page and stay away from 'Maiden' races, you won't go too far wrong. If you had done this yesterday, you would have got 2 quinellas out of 3 at Goulburn and possibly 4 out of 5 at Bendigo.

There, hope that helps!



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[TheAvenger]

Thanks for the information. Maybe I can learn to speak Australian racing lingo. Crikey?, The picks sound great I'll be looking in on them this eve.

Glenn

[puntz]

Stebbo quoted
"Just the other day I was going to back something... it had been hovering around the $8 mark all morning, hardly a move.... it then got announced as Tony's "special", and it started at about $2.20... go figure."

I know, it's a pisser.
If I have a choice of naming horses,
I would nam them:
"collusion" and the stable-mate "deception"

[darkydog2002]

Crikey.Blow me down with a feather .Me orse won today.
Cheers..
darky.

[kenchar]

DARKIES finally flipped his lid :lol:

[darkydog2002]

Stone the crows ya old galah.
Cheers.
darkie.

[crash]

Avenger, Except for the old buggers around here like me, handicapping doesn't seem too popular. Systems seem to be the go [probably due to time]. Avoid Maidens, jumps, fillies and mares,1000m races, cups and stakes races [too many chances usually], apprentices claiming 3kg. and track condt. worse than dead and you are off to a good start. Ignore times unless in sprint races [up to 1600m] and be aware all our tracks are grass and can be a bit 'all over the place' surface wise which affect times, especially due to movable rails [in or out up to 15m/50ft.]. Weight counts above 1200m. generally. To work out 'class' up or down for runners, note previous prize money contested compared to current race.


Cheers.

[topsy99]

observations. yesterday i saw j powell say that sheer devotion would win despite being drawn 10. concern raised by interviewer.
previously some of our members have said that barriers make no difference.
i didnt think it could win due to the weight swing.
later in the day express ball from barrier 11 with a worse weight swing than sheer devotion won very impressively. probably different jockeys.
later i was keen on carael boy in the villiers but didnt get overkeen because of the barrier draw so i backed a group of horses that qualified under my weight swings with a lesser amount including the winner who came from a worse barrier draw.
as pittsburgh phil would say.
"in a field of 8 the chances of picking the winner are 7 to 1"
i've got a feeling that jockeys have a lot to do with the result.

[crash]

As far as overall stats. go, barriers make no difference [as the number crunchers here will quickly tell you] with outside barriers winning almost as much as inside ones, but as far as I am concerned barriers are a track by track, distance by distance, horse by horse and even a jockey by jockey consideration.
A 1200m race at Ranwick is a totally different affair to the same distance at Caufield. Some tracks have an outside bias [Moonee Valley] others favor inside barriers [Canterbury] and depending on distance the bias may vary. It may all come out even in the wash but the individual differences are there to take note off.

Cheers.

[TheAvenger]

Hi Crash:

At 53 years, I'm not real young either. I want to learn all I can, though. I appreciate the kindness of everyone here, and hope you're all a bit on the zany side, like me.

Glenn

[darkydog2002]

A good site to look at is
http://www.everyrace.com/default.asp
The site is run by Warren Block.One of the most respected names in Australian racing.
Warmest regards.
darky.

[TheAvenger]

Thanks, Darky, I signed up there.

Regards,

Glenn

[TheAvenger]

Sportsnutz: Thanks for your suggestions. I have already picked up a horse or two I otherwise would not have had. Tonight we were given Hawkesbury and Taree as our A and B racetracks. Last night It was Randwick and Flemington. (what a disaster, my picks were bad, and so were all the others I saw) Like I have previously mentioned, I get live video and bet online with Ameritab.

Regards, and best of luck to us all.

Glenn

[topsy99]

could you tell us which meetings you have each day. we might be able to help.
its a big might but my opinion of hawkesbury and taree would have been to go and play golf.

[TheAvenger]

Hi Topsy:

It's 12:37 A.M. here, Sunday morning, Sunday afternoon to you. Tomorrow, (Sunday night to me) Track A is Dubbo, track B is Tamworth. I have played Tamworth before. I am not a golfer, but understand the game. A good friend of mine has a P.G.A. card, which means he's a pretty good golfer. It would be tough to get up a game at midnght anyway, so I bet horses instead. If you can come up with some great selections for tomorrow, post them here. The Canadian whiskey, Crown Royal, is my favorite handicapping fluid, and sometimes affects my reasoning. Thank you!

My best,

Glenn

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[kenchar]

CC+ seven up best drink in the world, but had to give it up cause I like it too much and used to guzzle. 1 bottle every 2 days?????

Topsy,
What's wrong with Hawkesbury and Taree just another race day.

Pick your races, and in the words of one of the most succesfull punters ever ( a Yank forgot his name ) pick em to win and back the place. I had a good day thanks :smile: plus I couldn't play golf to save my life.

Cheers

[crash]

To Handicap Hawksbury at least a bottle of scotch would be required and a decent chaser wouldn't go astray either. Only masochists have a love affair with Hawksbury... race by race it will grind you low.

Cheers.

[kenchar]

Crash,

A bit of leather and a whip never went astray :lol:

Yeh I guess your'e right leave these little sh** meetings alone.

8 races winner in six races in first 2 favs.

Now lets go to the quality saturday meeting at Flemington yesterday.

3 winners in the first 2 favs

Now the quality races at Randwick yesterday.

4 winners in the first 2 favs.

Maybe I'm missing something but you check your stats and I'm sure more favoured horses win at the meetings that we are supposed to leave alone than at the quality meetings we are supposed to only bet on.

As I posted recently, I met a guy from Melbourne who is older than me (and I'm no chicken) who has never worked in his life.

And if you read the post I made the comment that the MAJORITY of his betting was on weekdays.

Maybe He's wrong and all the experts are right, but I don't think so.

Cheers




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[TheAvenger]

Crash: Well, I agree that Hawkesbury is at least a litre bottle of Scotch. It's close to Christmas, thus all my kin think they have to buy me a 1.75 litre bottle of Crown Royal, so I am smiling a lot these days and trying my best not to make a total arse of myself. If you can come up with a nice winner or two at Dubbo or Tamworth tomorrow (today?) this yank may just send you a litre of Crown.


Best Regards,

Glenn

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[topsy99]

each to his own and sorry to reflect on hawkesbury. good on you for making it work.
tomorrow if i had to fling at dubbo and tamworth i would try ring leader gold treat innan free and collingwood storm for a bit of machocism just for the leather and whip.,

[kenchar]

Topsy,

Wouldn't have a clue what I'm backing tomorrow.

If it's a race I will bet on I will know my bet approx 3 mins before the jump.

Cheers

[sportznut]

Avenger, you're a bit unlucky with the programming of your Sunday night Aussie racing. I see that you can only bet on the first five races at each venue, and most of those are Maidens, races which I wouldn't suggest you risk too much money on!

[kenchar]

Looks like Ameritab are pretty smart cookies.

[crash]

What, you can only bet the first 5 races Avenger ? You are being ripped off. One of the 'smart' rules I forgot [no, I don't always follow the 'smart' rules but I love quoting them] was: 'generally speaking the first half of the card at most meetings are no bet races' and are designed to get the 'mug punter' money early !!

Our Scotch [and most other spirits] comes in 750mm bottles [ about a pint ] and cost $25 for rot-gut. To get a better idea of our prices a 750mm bottle of Jack Daniels cost $38 and it is watered down. So chuck over a drip-feed hose for us poor taxed to death codgers will you ?

Won on races 3,6,7,8 straight win bets at Flemington on Saturday from 6 bets/6 races. My favorite track !!

The Villiers Stakes at Ranwick on Saturday was a good example of why 'Stakes' races are poor value. The winner paid $28 and the Tri. [picking the first three] paid close to 5 grand. We all can't wait for the Stakes filled spring races here, exciting sure, but I would love to see any punters accounting book that shows a yearly profit on stakes races.

Cheers.


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[sportznut]

On 2003-12-22 06:03, crash wrote:
What, you can only bet the first 5 races Avenger ? You are being ripped off.

Crash, that's only on Sunday nights (Monday our time). On all other days, they usually get all of the races or maybe just miss out on the last.

[darkydog2002]

THEAVENGER.Try these at Tamworth.
Race 5 Horse 1 from 5 with 2 and 3 some hope.
Cheers.
darky.

[sportznut]

On 2003-12-22 06:03, crash wrote:
Won on races 3,6,7,8 straight win bets at Flemington on Saturday from 6 bets/6 races. My favorite track !!

Hey, I had the winners of races 6, 7 and 8 at Flemington too. Monahan Tweed and Redjack were selections for a couple of my systems.

[xptdriver]

[quote]
On 2003-12-21 17:14, topsy99 wrote: (snipped)
but my opinion of hawkesbury and taree would have been to go and play golf.

Gday Topsy..
as my old man used to say, a winner at 20/1 in the Cox plate pays the same as a 20/1 winner in a Taree Maiden. Ya just have to find them.. Taree yesterday was a bit hard.. as was Hawkesbury. But still managed 5/8 in top 2 at Hawkesbury. Have a peep at Kyneton today if ya want to see a crap meeting. And after ya do ya will see Taree and Hawkesbury wern't so bad after all.



_________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

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[TheAvenger]

Thanks, Darky. Crash, the booze is cheaper here, about $25 U.S. for a liter of Crown Royal. Jack Daniels is cheaper. Your 750 bottles are 3/4 liter. We have them here as well. As my wife and I were returning from Jamaica in Oct, we were able to get two liters of Crown for $15 U.S. each at the duty-free shop in the airport at Montego Bay. Taxes are too bloody high everywhere. Have a good day.

Glenn

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[TheAvenger]

Sportznut, no different here. The early races usually suck. We do get the short end of the stick betting Aussies on Sunday eve.
Oh well, I just love your racing. The quinellas pay twice what one of equal odds horses would in the U.S..I think us North American players may have a separate mutuel pool of our own. Not sure. I have read that toteboards were invented in Australia. Marvelous thing. Have a great day.

Glenn

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[sportznut]

Avenger,
Yes you do have your own separate tote pool for Australian racing. After all, you guys bet Win, Place AND SHOW which most Aussies wouldn't really understand!!!


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[crash]

Cheap grog, cheap motorbikes and ah, how are the women ? Nothing wrong with dreamin'.

Cheers.

[Wexford]

The Avenger, maybe I can help with the Xmas turkey if Brisbet are covering Werribee on Xmas Eve.

We are still 24 hours out and the weather is on the improve.

Race 2 MODERN ERA - Top stable. Top jockey -Ran an honest race 1st up this preparation. 2nd up and did not perform 2nd up last time but I am prepared to have a go at him this time up,

Race 8 KING LANDY - Disappointed last run but after all it is Xmas and I will forgive and forget - Great chance.

Merry Xmas/safe holidays all
Cheers

[TheAvenger]

Thank you kindly. Have a great day.

Glenn

[sportznut]

Wexford, I think the Americans are only betting on Canterbury and Ipswich tomorrow, so those tips won't do TheAvenger much good. Might do us some good though. I've backed King Landy at it's last two runs. Do you really think I should back up again???


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2003-12-23 12:55 ]</font>