Late mail

[partypooper]

I posted a question regarding Late mail recently and was grateful to receive some interesting data in response. I wonder does anyone have any significant results for the PLACE? My observation so far is that there appears to be a greater than normal % of placegetters, but not sure if that is just a flash in the pan.

[Chrome Prince]

I'm dragging this post up again because I think it's worthwhile.

Betfair are on the verge of introducing a new Betfair SP product, different to the old one.
So I think it could be a winner at Betfair prices.

I'm about to embark on a study, and I'll post back the results.

[Chrome Prince]

Yesterday for example:

Lay the win, back the place.

47 selections

Win Loss 27.90
Place Loss 4.20

Win LOT 59.36%
Place LOT 8.94%

I reckon that it's a good lay system for the win and a good bet for the place system with Betfair.

A little birdy told me that the late mail selections are those that have had largeish early morning bets with corporate bookies.

Last weekend to follow...

[Chrome Prince]

Last two Saturday's

94 Late Mail selections

Win Loss 44.80
Place Loss 14.30

Win LOT 47.66%
Place LOT 15.22%

[Chrome Prince]

Last three Saturday's

139 selections

Win return $78.70
Place Return $113.20

Win loss $60.30
Place Loss $25.80

Win LOT 43.38%
Place LOT 18.56%

Hmmm...looking very much like a win lay method to me.

[partypooper]

Well yes Chrome EXCEPT, it all looks too good to be true to me????? whadya reckon?

[Shaun]

I am confused by the figures above, i understand the point of laying the win and backing the place but that about it.

[Chrome Prince]

Just that the Late Mail selections are way overbet on the tote, if we can lay just 10% above that, there's still a good 30% of profit to be had.

[Shaun]

I just didn't understand the way you had the figures thats all, so laying the late mail could be a profitable idea?


And you are saying that backing them for a place might be a goer aswell?

[Chrome Prince]

Ah no, Initially I thought so, but the track record ain't great.

Today at Mornington not one Late Mail saluted (many at short enough odds) and their special went down the gurgler too.

It was a bumper day ;)

[lomaca]

It was a bumper day ;)betting the other end of the market I wholeheartedly agree!images/icons/icon7.gif

[lomaca]

It was a bumper day ;)betting the other end of the market I wholeheartedly agree!

[Bhagwan]

Here's something that should work on Laying the Late mail selections .

Lay all late mail selections priced 3.50-5.90
That way we are avoiding the really hot Favs.

Level stakes.

This idea also works well if targeting the *(star specials) as indicated with an asterisk next to the UniTAB tipsters selection numbers shown at the top .

Target both tipsters shown at the top where asterisk (*star bets) are shown next to their top selection .

Their SR is less than 20% ,at really low odds, which is surprising seeing that it is less than the std Fav SR.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

Seems to me, they have days when they are hot on the money and then days when they are off the boil completely.

I wonder if the Late Mail information comes from different bookies?

Today they scored

Midnight Mustang @ $6.60
Wallinger @ $2.50
Driffield gold $1.90

So they are already in profit for Flemington.

[Chrome Prince]

Holy Guacamole!

Add Gold Salute @ $13.50 and Shocking @ $2.30

8 late mails at Flemington for a return of $26.80

18.80 units profit or a lowly 235% POT

But when it's hot, it's hot, when it's not - it's woeful.

All the other States performed very very badly.

I think this one is a definite lay til you cop a winner and back as soon as a winner is struck.
Not because of staking, but because some days the mail gets lost, and other days it's express post.

[Chrome Prince]

Watch the Late Mail at Sandown today, as they've led off with a winner.

It seems to go in patches, so when it's on song it pays to follow if something is at decent odds.

[Bhagwan]

I feel if one tries to stay within the price band mentioned 3.50-5.90

One wont be so exposed to such anomalies that do happen in racing.

Thanks for your findings & input Chrome its all very interesting & informative.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

Well it didn't follow the pattern the other day.

I'm looking at another angle for Late Mail, because they do get some nice priced winners, but only when they're on the boil, when they go cold they're right off.

I really do believe they are getting the Late Mail from different sources each day, or they are getting a mix of Late Mail, so they look good, but not too good.

This is just hypothesis, but nothing else could explain how spot on they are some days, and how way off they are others.

[partypooper]

Gotta agree Chrome, I've been operating a secondry place only plan for 3 years basically based on Late mail (or at least dependant on it) very sucessfully until a horror run that ends all horror runs like it WAS TOO BAD TO BE TRUE, I baled out at the point of break even ( 3 years work).

Re looked at it and saw that it was STILL profitable with all the usual filters, but the T/O suffering as usual................ frustrating isn't it??? Grrrrr!

[Chrome Prince]

I'm more convinced than ever that there is a very good angle to this whole Late Mail thingamajiggy.
They do not stand up on their own, but perhaps in conjunction....

A work in progress.

[The Ocho]

Hi Chrome Prince,

Did you ever follow this one up?

I had a look at laying the late mail horse but only if it wasn't too high (say not over $12 or so) and for the last 7 days (since last Wednesday) you would of lost -65 points if backing going on the Unitab price. I didn't check it for the lay bet odds that Betfair would of offered and I haven't removed any commission but 65 points. GEE :eek:

If the commission and higher lay bets were taken into account I reckon maybe 50 points (or 45 points) for lay betting, not bad in one week.

The only bad day was Saturday where it lost 12.7 units (if laying).

I tried to marry it up with being a 100 pointer or fav or both and ended up with (for backing): 100 pointer -3.1, fave -14.9, both -0.6. So those extra filters have not helped it, you just would of lost less for backing (or won less for laying).

Maybe it's been one of those weeks where the late mail source has just been unlucky. I know it got a number of seconds which would of probably made all the difference.

The only problem for someone like me is that the late mail doesn't appear until, well, late and I therefore can't input the selections into my bot before work. DAMN!

Anyway, have you, or anyone else, been following this angle?

[Chrome Prince]

To be honest, no I haven't.
Been a bit busy with other things.
It's extremely volatile, when they are good, they are very good.
When they are bad, they are woeful.