System tester

[coffee]

Hi guy's! I'm only new here on this forum and was wondering if anyone could help me with the following. I sometimes come up with system ideas that work for about two or three weeks, but after that seem to fail...I would like to test for longer, but do not have the time or information (form that is)available...would anybody know of any "horse system tester" computer software that one may purchase to test systems. I found one on the net that was called "price predicter", but on examination dosn't seem to have the factors that I need. I would appreciate anyone who could help me with this..."thanks guy's"

Mal.

[Lenny]

Hi Coffee,

I use Price Predictor Pro and agree that it is a bit limited in its system factors, but it is also pretty inexpensive and Neale is always helpful and has great after sale service. There is of course the PPP forum now located here.

What factors do you think will cause you problems?

~Lenny

[stebbo]

Hi Mal,

I too use Price Predictor, and am very satisfied with it. There are a few things that it can't test on, but one of the great things about it is that it creates a CSV file of all the horses selected under your given criteria, and you can load this CSV file into Excel and do further analysis. This will allow you, for instance, to filter on sex, something which you can't do directly in the system tester module.

Cheers,
Chris.

[becareful]

On 2004-01-05 08:38, stebbo wrote:

This will allow you, for instance, to filter on sex, something which you can't do directly in the system tester module.


Is that filtering based on whether the horse had sex recently or the jockey :cool: Where do you get this information?

Sorry - couldn't help myself. :grin:

[stebbo]

On 2004-01-05 11:37, becareful wrote:
On 2004-01-05 08:38, stebbo wrote:

This will allow you, for instance, to filter on sex, something which you can't do directly in the system tester module.

Is that filtering based on whether the horse had sex recently or the jockey :cool: Where do you get this information?

No, silly... filtering based on whether I had sex recently.... which means I don't get anywhere near enough bets! :smile: :smile: :smile:

[coffee]

Thanks guy's. Lenny...my factors vary. One day I'm testing horses with SPELLS another on distance and weight. For eg: I found a few winners with this method I tried...it's as follows.

1)Horse must of been FRESHENED
2)After It's Freshening, it is allowed three starts only. It is a selection if it's last start was favorite (whether it was it's first run back or it's third)and must of lost that race.

If you or anyone has past info to test this method I would be very currious to see the results.

PS: Lenny, what is PPP on this site?

[Bhagwan]

Hi Coffee
The program I use is the most sophisticated program in the world, it is called TRB GTSi.
(The Ratings Bureau)
It can do a lot more than Price prdictor but it is also 4 times the price.
It has its own data base which can be loaded daily which includes the scratchings.
They send out a disc at the end of each month to update your data base.
It has a pre-post market as per newspapers.
You can anylise say race number 1&2 only.
You can isolate months of the year or days of the week or Country,Povincial,Metro or class of race or any of its last 10 starts.

It`s amazing .
I have created & bet on over 100 systems 7 days a week.
It can run all 100 at once & takes about 2 seconds to work out the lot,now thats amazing.
It would normally take 9 hours to do that manually.
It is very flexable.
You can isolate factors first before you include it as an actual rule.

[shoto]

On 2004-01-06 21:32, Bhagwan wrote:
Hi Coffee
The program I use is the most sophisticated program in the world, it is called TRB GTSi.
...
It has a pre-post market as per newspapers. ...


Hi Bhagwan,
How good is the prepost market? How close do the odds fit with actual race odds? How similar or different is to the newspaper prepost markets?

Cheers

[Bhagwan]

Hi Shoto,
The pre-post market they have is actually sydicated to a number of newspaper groups around Australia so it is reasonable to assume it is very close to papers who maybe use another source for their prices .

The newspapers tend to vary the source they get their pre-posts from on a daily to weekly basis.

As we all know, the pre-post market should be used as a rough guide to its possible final price because most pre-post markets are set at around the 150% mark & the TAB is set at 116.5%

I find the pre-post market excellent for deleting horse in the 2.9/1 range & less because they are poor value long term to show a profit.
You could maybe also delete horses in the 16/1 range & higher because of the low strike rate.

I have found the best value to strike rate is in the 3/1 to 9/1 range.
I have found by doing this to most systems, it nearly always improoves its POT or it reduces its losses on a run of outs.

[coffee]

Bhagwan,

Thanks for the info Bhagwan...sounds great, but 4 times the price of PP..."I guess I better start making some money on the G.G's, so I can give it a go, Ha Ha Ha. I'll check it out. Bhagwan...you wouldn't mine testing that system that I metioned above could you? (it's the sixth response on this thred, if it's no trouble. Thanks.

[shoto]

Thanks Bhagwan.

[Lenny]

Hi Mal,

Stebbo is right about the CSV file for PPP (Price Predictor Pro). It will allow you to use Price Predictor Pro to apply its filters, then you can apply further filters if you like. I would be tempted to write VBasic code to apply my own filters automatically, but I hardly have the time for that now.

PPP's system tester allows you to filter a selection in/out of the running based on X number of days since a horses last run, and also allows you to select the number of runs this preperation. It allows for weight and distance filtering (rise/drop since last run), but not weight differences between selections (e.g. 2nd runner must be 2 kg below first). You can also test a selection to see if it was a last start favourite.

~Lenny

PS: What is a freshened horse again? Is that a layoff of 45 to ?? days? I think its something like that, although I can't quite remember.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Lenny on 2004-01-07 14:29 ]</font>

[coffee]

Lenny,

Thanks for the discription of PPP, I appreciate it. A Freshened is usually about 22 to 28 day's.

[crash]

Bhagwan,

I almost brought this data system but changed my mind due to uncertainty and lack of truly independent recommendation.

Tell me this, will it turn average punters into consistent winners ? Has it done this for you and if so would you become a loosing punter without it ?

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-01-09 08:38 ]</font>

[Lenny]

Cheers Coffee.

~Lenny

[Bhagwan]

Hi Coffee.
Re Your system.
I ran it through its paces & unfotunatly it showed a loss with a 24% SR
It showed a small profit for some reason if the critter ran exactly 3rd & finished between 0 & 0.9 lenghths behind the winner.It had some amazing days & other times it found it hard to target good priced winners.

Hi Crash.
That TRB GTSi program would make the mechanical systems punter stronger because it takes the human error out of selecting & the time taken to work the more complicated ones .
It does rely though on your ability to create & check if certain systems have legs or not .
I run 100 systems at once ,all done in about 2 seconds ,7 days a week ,betting 400 races a month for a 28% SR & a 19% POT
It has made me a stronger punter for it ,I could still punt without it,but I find its ability to interogate a race fantastic just for that.
You need to have a basic understanding of racing to run it.
For every 20 systems I create , I will find only one maybe, that will stand up to 4 years of data .
You need to place a lot of time into creating systems such as these, because the majority of systems fall over through time.
Its all trial & error.
I find the more selective plans tend to stand up over time, with fewer bets ,that`s why I run 100 of them.

Like all things worthwhile in life ,you only get out a percentage of what you put in.

I know its expensive ,but to me, its cost effective for the return it gives me due to the various programs I have created , most only deliver 4-5 selections a month sometimes non at all.

All are very selective & would drive a man crazy trying to work all of them out manually ,only to find you only have 2 bets for the day ,which does happen.
So the computer takes the drudgery out of it.

If your into system creation ,its a must have tool,it definitly is the business end of town, with its own trouble free data base, updated daily.

The question is , can you justift $100 a week to take it on , to most, thats a substantial amout to outly with no guarantees that you have what it takes to use it creatively, to create profit from racing.