form 12345

[flintstone]

What would be the general opinion about any horse running with the last 3 races with form of 1 - 1 -1 ? would it be likely to win or to lose?

[darkydog2002]

In my opinion would LOSE,but if it did win would be too short to be backable.Every mug see,s the form and bets it off the map.
Cheers.
darky.

[partypooper]

Flintstone, I've only got longhand records, approx 30% win next run , which is about the same as favs, but surprisingly not all are favs. and in fact some amazing SP's come along. especially when it's an improving horse, i.e. say 3 provincial wins, then wins in the City.

One thing though, there seems to be a greater than average SR for the place and a greater than average divi.

[sportznut]

Yeah, I agree. It's amazing the good odds you can often get on horses in winning form. So many punters tend to look away from the obvious or perhaps think that the winning run simply MUST come to an end.

[flintstone]

Hi all thanks guys for your replies. My thoughts are about the same. between 29%-31% win next time out. The place is very often a good price too.

An interesting point, I have been following these horses with 1-1-1 form in The UK/Aussie/and some other tracks usa and South Africa and laying them at betfair, you know, almost every one has been successful. A good example was Ascot - R6 #3 Celtus - if I remember right this had that form and then came no-where. Anyway I'll continue to follow this and see how it pans out. cya Flint.

[Shaun]

The form lines i love are 110 specialy if it is nere the top of thw weights sometimes you get big priced winners there

[sportznut]

Flintstone,

Yeah, Celtus lost, but he was a short priced favourite in a big race. If you're going to back horses with three straight wins, they should be at better value!!!

[crash]

Formline with 1111 [ rather than 111 ] surprisingly often offers very good odds.

Saw a system that just backed these picket fences. Logic says it should loose but winning form is good form and if overs are offered because punters are scared off, well why not take them ?

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Hi.

After three or four consecutive wins, one would expect the horse to be allocated an unusually high weight.

Does anyone have stats re increase in weight from its previous start(s)?

[darkydog2002]

CRASH.Ever seen that one out of the BLUE RIBBON BOOK.
Went .won last 3 starts.
tipped by every tipster on a poll of at least 8 tipsters or if ONE tipster hadn,t tipped it for ist must have tipped it for 2nd.
The system went back about 30 years or more.
Cheers.
darky.