Modified Topweight(s) method

[purpleheart68]

After reading thru some old posts by angel416 and now sportznut,I would appreciate any thoughts on this method.
Rule 1)Operate on Metropolitan Handicap races 1200 to 1600mtrs.
Rule2)Consider only the top two in the weights,with a maximum of 60 kgs.
Rule 3)2nd topweight MUST be at least 2kgs clear of the 3rd horse in the weights.
Rule 4)Must have TD or C next to it.
Rule 5)Must have run in the last 15 days.
Rule 6)Must have at least 25% win SR and at least 50% place SR
Rule 7)Must be drawn in barriers 1 to 5 only
My thoughts behind this.......
We are letting the handicapper do the work for us here.If the 2nd toppie is 2kgs above no.3,then regardless of what weight the toppie is to carry,the handicapper is virtually telling us that in his expert opinion the top 2 in the weights have a class edge on the field.By limiting the toppie to a max. of 60kgs we are making sure our selection is not "carrying the grandstand."The TD and C rule ensures the horse has won at the track and distance.Must have run in the last 15 days ensures it is at least reasonably fit,and eliminates unreliable first uppers.The required SR ensures we are only backing consistent animals.
I left out one important rule!Must have either WON or ran 2nd at one of its previous 2 starts.Again,self explanetary.The horse is consistent,fit,and in form,and ideally drawn.
Baghwan,would it be possible to run it thru your database and see if it has any merit?

If both qualify do we dutch book and back both?Back the shorter price and save on the other?Or vice versa?

Any feedback or ideas most welcome.
Cheers '68

[sportznut]

Well, I think the rules are very sensible, but perhaps just a little bit too strict.
I could be wrong, but somehow I have a feeling that bets with your system would be pretty rare. Mind you, when they did come up, they'd be damn hard to beat!!!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-01-07 14:45 ]</font>

[crash]

Purpleheart,

Barrier rule is a handicapping disadvantage as you would be ruling out half your winners that often pay more than those from inside barriers as punters avoid them and the price usually firms. Statistically, inside barriers win no more races than outside barriers. It has been argued and proved statistically many time in this and other forums.

60kg. in sprint races may be fine if the horse has won with that sort of weight before. Beyond 1150m. [ the grandstand gets heavier the further you go ], weight becomes a major handicapping issue on a horse by horse basis. We have fast big horses and fast small horses and their ability to carry weight varies accordingly.

Generally speaking, when a horse makes it to 60kg. it's winning form this prep. is usually over, especially beyond 1200m. A 3kg. claiming jockey would raises other issues.

You could use a price rule or 'must be either 1st. 2nd. or 3rd. favorite' rule instead of the weight rule as that would show [ from punter handicapping ] if the horse is up to the distance with it's alloted weight or not. I have seen plenty of topweights that would meet your rules that are ofen into double figure odds and run accordingly.


Cheers.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-01-09 07:52 ]</font>