eliminating false favourites

[purpleheart68]

Any thoughts on this topic?
My basic rules for discarding what I consider false favourites.
Rule 1)Bypass any odds on favs
Rule 2)Do not consider any fav which has not raced in the last 21 days
Rule 3)Do not back any fav that has won more than last two starts
Rule 4)No fav with less than 25% SR
Rule 5)No 3kg apprentices to ride
Rule 6)No first OR second uppers
Rule 7)No fav from a minority stable up against a well supported runner from a top stable
Rule :cool:Distance range from 1200/1600mtrs only
Rule 9)Must not be going up/down 2kgs from last start
Rule 10)Drawn barriers 1/8 only
Any feedback??

[partypooper]

G'day purple,
based on statistics, I would only add this:
(a) no bet,maidens, hurdles, ladies only races, or races for Fillies and Mares only.

(b) no bet where a conveyance is set to carry 3.5kg's (more or less) than set to carry last start. IGNORE ALL CLAIMERS.

(C) No bet where a conveyance did not did not travel within 3.5 lenghts of the winner last start (regardless of finishing poosition last start)

[partypooper]

Sorry I would also add:
(1) No bet in a race that has at least one contender that has NOT had a run.

(2) The contender must have at at least one placing on the current going.

(3) The rule on 2nd up relaxed to, NO BET 2nd up "IF" won 1st up.

[purpleheart68]

Partypooper,areyou and I the only one's who can't sleep??I would not rule out maidens(see my other post as to why)I guess there would be lots more rules we could use,average prizemoney etc.
I was just thinking along the lines of favs winning 30% of all races.So every 100 bets we expect to back 30 winners.If we can eliminate 30 false favs,yet still maintain the 30%SR,are we not on the path to success????

[partypooper]

Yeah, still awake, but of course I am in the "West"
Anyway they say that last run must be within 100m of current run,
And (b) must have a win and placing in last 3 runs.
But there you go.
But I am basically thinking along the same lines that it seems that we should be able to "TILT" the scales in our favour wuth the "RIGHT" set of rules????? but it still aint easy!!!

[crash]

Hi guys,

Up with the milk cows. You both have the right reasoning working.
You could add no Cup races and rule out all races below Hcp. class as form below this level is often very inconsistent and narrowing down to consistent as possible is the goal to improve favorite SR %.

Don't bet on anything less than a good track. A well worn adage for good reason but often ignored.

Why bother if the goal is to improve the favorite win % ? Problem with even a dead track is knowing the track surface make-up and how it became dead. A quick burst of rain or from a slow overnight drizzle ? Depending on track surface from track to track it can be dead but slippery everywhere, or just here and there or ... ???
A horse with seemingly good 'dead' form will perform differently from one dead track to another and even on tracks it has won on under so called 'dead' [or worse ] condt.

Have a little chat with your local Green Keeper about different soil make-up across Aust. and water precipitation effects. You will never bet on anything worse than 'good' again except for an interest bet [ if you must ]. This 'good only' rule is nit picking I suppose, but not in the context of improving fav. SR.

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-01-15 07:31 ]</font>

[BettyBoop]

What's the logic re ignoring if substantial drop in weight. Are you assuming a class rise?

_________________


<font color="#FF00FF">BOOP - OOP - A - DOOP !</font></p>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: BettyBoop on 2004-01-14 12:18 ]</font>

[partypooper]

BB, re: weight change,

No not really although that could be the case, my rule is purely mechanical i.e.80%+ of winners raced within 3.5kg's of the weight they were set to carry the previos start (ignoring claims) it would be interesting though if someone with the right data base, could analyse that properly.

[crash]

Anything going up or down 3.5 kg. is making a mighty class change. I would be wary of a 2.5kg. weight change. Up in weight usualy means down in class and vis-a-vis Betty.

Stebbo has that capability Becareful. You would have to ask him.

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-01-15 07:33 ]</font>

[darkydog2002]

Using WIZARD.
No Fav wt.rated below 91 or time rated below 92 or field strength above 3.
Cheers.
Darky.