PPF Selections progress

[stebbo]

Jan 25, 2004

Hi All,

the PPF selections have been going through some tuff times of late. The following stats are for backing every one of the selections that I've posted (including the week where I forgot to post - which lost). The original rules called for some race size and distance restrictions, as well as PrePost or SP restrictions... Following those may or may not have improved these figures.

<pre>
No bets 32
No wins 5
S/R 15.6%
Av Div 6.41
Profit 0.03
POT 0.1%
LRO 13

</pre>
.
It's early days yet, and there's no hiding the fact that the system is struggling... Still, it's not losing.........

Personally, I have only been backing those selections that haven't been selected by any other of my systems on the day, and my bank is ahead by 4 units...

Cheers,
Chris.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: stebbo on 2004-01-25 09:07 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Stebbo,
I think I have a couple of ideas for you.

In those original rules of mine, I was looking for value by including horses which finished 1st to 4th at their last 4 starts. However, that doesn't seem to have worked, so I'd suggest it would be better in future to only use horses which were PLACED at their last 4 starts. I also suggest you think about a minimum win strike rate of 20%. Using those two rules, and a distance range of 1100-2400m, I think you should improve your strike rate and profit a fair bit.

Here's the results from Oct 18. (That's when you started the 'PPF' system, isn't it?)
Oct18 B7-7 Roar Talent UNP
Nov8 S7-8 Cataclysm WON (5.30)
Nov8 B7-6 Penola UNP
Nov15 M8-8 Lord Volksraad PLA
Nov15 B6-2 Warrior Trader UNP
Nov22 B7-3 Panzer PLA
Nov29 B7-9 Alfonso PLA
Nov29 S7-11 Portland Singa PLA
Dec13 M3-9 Danrego WON (3.60)
Dec13 B6-3 Poachers Luck WON (6.00)
Dec27 B1-6 Crimson Gown WON (13.00)
Dec27 M8-2 Dare To Be Proud WON (3.60)
Jan19 GC4-6 Picardi Run UNP
Jan19 S7-9 Sunday Service UNP
Jan24 B7-13 Origin Hero UNP
Selections 15, Wins 5, Win return $31.50, Win profit 110%

There you go. What do you think?

I'm also working on another similar system which looks VERY promising. I'll post that in the next day or two.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-01-25 23:39 ]</font>

[crash]

Nice bit of back-fitting Sport !

I understand the placings change and it's a good idea. Not sure if it was improved SR or odds that did the trick [ ? ]. After the 13 ROO's [ ouch ! ], It might be a good time to hop on and bet the thing as it might have been a ' maximum draw-down '.

Cheers.

[sportznut]

Crash,

As I said, when I started with the original rules of my plan, I thought that using first to fourth at last 4 starts would give us some value winners, but it just hasn't worked. Only one short priced winner from 13 selections. So it seems just common sense to change that rule to placed at last 4 starts. As for the 20% win strike rate rule, I also think that is a sensible rule to use in most systems concentrating on metropolitan racing.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-01-26 10:57 ]</font>

[stebbo]

Hi Crash,

32 bets is waaaay too early to tell yet... Over my test data, the S/R was 21%... 32 bets times 21% is 6.7 winners, so we're less than two winners off the long term strike rate...

To be even with the bank after 32 bets is a good effort, particularly given that the S/R is down, and there has been a terrible ROO's in there...... that 1.7 winners would be where the profit was, so we just have to stick it out.... the next 32 bets may (or may not) give us 9 winners, and we might all be smiling....

BTW: The way that I am betting this system is to not double-up if one of the selections is also selected by another of my methods.. I put it in my database as a $0 bet.... My bank for this system is in front by just on 5 units... :smile:

Cheers,
Chris.

[sportznut]

Stebbo,

Can I ask how long was the test period where you achieved that 21% strike rate? I've been looking back at old form guides from 2003 and I came across some nice winners. Anyway, I guess you're right. It is early days with only 32 bets.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-01-26 15:56 ]</font>

[tragic]

oh lord
i dont wanna be a wanna be punter i just wanna be a punter
amen

[stebbo]

Hi Sportz...

I ran the system throo my Price Predictor database in early October, and checked all races back to 1st Dec 2001.

40 wins from 194 selections in 187 races.

Cheers,
Chris.