3 Horse plan

[Bhagwan]

This idea is based on following the tipsters as shown on the TABQ .
This is very much a waiting type plan ,so its an idea to have small interest bets only while waiting for the qualifying race so as to prevent too much boredom creeping in.

1)We only bet on races where the Fav is paying $3.80+ on the TAB 1 min to jump.
2)We then bet all 3 selections the allocated tipster has selected.
Same amount on each.
Bet $1.00 on each with a $100 bank ,this allows for 33 outs in a row @ $3.00 per race.

You could use the Radio TAB selections where there is no allocated tipster.
The allocated tipsters tend to pick winners in the higher price range, whenever they get up .

The idea behind only targeting races with a $3.80+ Fav is simple, they pay more if they get up & their win percentage is less allowing us scope to hook onto a strong payer if one of the others gets up.

Lets see how it performed on Sun 25 Jan.
10 from 18 races using $10 win bets on all 3 selections.
Outlay $540
Return $974
Profit $430 = 80% POT

This was higher than average because of the 2 big payers of $20.10 & $29.40 TABQ , but the S/R is there.
Other divs were $5.60+11.10,6.50,5.40,4.50,5.00,4.20,5.60
If you took the 2 big payers out & pretend it was a non betting race ,you would still have made 27% POT.

[kenchar]

Bhagwan,

I just checked saturday WOW :grin:

Have you done any long term checking on this, and if so how consistent.

If you haven't let me know and I'll spend the time and run 6 months off which should give a reasonable idea if any shockers.

Good Stuff,

Cheers

[good 4th]

Hi
Thats a great idea but after one year at trying this both with the tipsters and radio tab you would have made a loss using flat staking, you would need to use some sort of progressive staking as there are days where you do your bank a little bit without ever really coming in front.
Strike rates are;
1st 25%
2nd 16%
3rd 12%
Theses are a roughg guide of percentages for all codes of racing and also selective codes.
One staking plan could be The Power of ten, Target betting but then again you will need a large bank as it is not uncommon to have runouts as large as 30 plus which you will need nerves of steel which i dont have and i cant justify putting down a $300 to make $10
I wish it did work as easy as you say,have tried for the pass year, still working at trying to filter out the losses but it all seems to be a bit random..

Cheers

[good 4th]

That did'nt work out dont know why?? I was trying to paste from excel but it does not want to play. This is a race day just gone the 6.1 is from tip three and the 2.1 is from tip two hope it makes sense if not i give up on this..
race 21/1/04 tipsters 1st 2nd 3rd
b1
m1 2
a1
s1
b2
m2
a2
s2
b3
m3 1.6
a3
s3 1.8
b4
m4
a4
s4
b5
m5 6.1
a5
s5 2.7
b6
m6
a6
s6
b7
m7
a7
s7
b8
m8
a8
s8
<ont size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: god 4th on 2004-01-26 11:00 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-01-26 11:02 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-01-26 11:07 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-01-26 11:14 ]</font>

[kenchar]

good4th,

Have you run it using Bhagwans rules???

I think you misunderstood his betting, nowhere did he say $300 to win $10.

The main thing I'm interested in though is there any days where it is NOT in front at some stage.

If it pans out there are no days where it is not in front then Bhagwan has given me the grail, as I will not change my betting ways ( grab it and run ) but will be able to have larger bets as betting to win pool.

Cheers

[good 4th]

Kenchar
I was just using an example for progressive staking and was not referring to Bhagwan at all, have a look at the 21st of this month would have done your dosh

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-01-26 11:19 ]</font>

[kenchar]

Would have to agree with you there.

Thanks for that think I,ll stick to what I'm doing.

I,ve tried two different methods in the last couple of weeks and lost both times.

Cheers

[Bhagwan]

Hi Kenchar
I have not done 6 mnths straight but a series of 4 days in a row at random dates to see if the wheels fall off & how badly.
It showed a profit overall.

If you can get back to us on the 6 mnth result it might prove interesting.

Hi Good 4th.
Thanks for your stats.
I know you have overlooked 1 of the only 2 basic rules ,thats why you claim Jan 21 feel to pieces, & so it should have.

If you constantly chase races with poor value, where short priced favs get up all day,you are going to pay the penalty.
These are precisely the races we avoid.
I wont bother repeating what that rule is either.

Jan 21 had 3 wins from 12=25%SR
$30 per race = 1 unit ($10 on ea horse)
Loss -7.0 units.(not too bad for a bad day.)

Jan 22 had 6 wins from 9=67%SR
profit +0.76 units or 8.5% on turnover.

Jan 23 had 2 wins from 5=40% SR
loss -0.7 units.

Jan 24 had 14 wins from 18=78%SR
profit +11.3 units.

TOTAL FOR THE FOUR DAYS=
25 wins from 44=57%SR
Outlay= $1320
Return $1463
+4.7 units Prof.
Profit $142 = 10.75%POT

This result from 1 good day ,2 break even days & 1 loseing day, backing 3 horses a race with no fancy prices in this particular run.
And thats the ups and downs of punting.
Good days with not so good days, but overall a profit.

THE NUMBER 1 RULE THIS WHOLE FORUM SITE HAS BEEN PREACHING AS A MANTRA AND STILL BEING OVER LOOKED, AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN FROM OUR GOOD FRIEND, GOOD 4TH, IS OVERLOOKING THE VALUE COMPONANT OF THE TARGETED RACE.
(Is this race worth the risk at the presented values?).

[kenchar]

Bhagwan,

I'll run a month to start with and see how it pans out.

If that ok will do another month etc.

As I said what I am personally looking for is twofold.

1/ A definate selection process ( whether 1 2 or 3 selections ) for a win so I can bet to bigger pools, or fixed odds.

2/ That selection method MUST give me at least 2 units profit every day.

Big ask I know but it's out there somewhere.

My place thing still OK but too many restrictions with the method.

Will post when have results.

Cheers











<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-01-26 14:50 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-01-26 15:02 ]</font>

[Bhagwan]

Hi Kenchar,
More results
Sat17 to Tue20

sat 17 12 wins from 16
75%SR
6.3 unit profit= 39%POT

sun18 3 wins from 9
33%SR
loss - 3.7 units.

mon19 1 win from 2
50%SR
loss-1.7 units.;

tue20 4 wins from 7
57% SR
profit + 6.6 units

TOTAL
20 wins from 34 = 59%SR
outlay $1020
return $1147
4.23 units profit
$127 = 12.45 POT

longest run of outs=2
longest carreer run of outs=8 in chronological order.

Kenchar,
Could you research which is the strongest day to bet on?
The figures at this stage, indicate Sat.

[good 4th]

Hi Bhagwan
I Did look at your rules and i was'nt trying to point you wrong as you are very correct in your research, I was just pointing out if you try and back all the tipsters and radio tab tips you lose in the long run.
But here's another angle instead of backing the first tip selection back the last two on both tipsters and radio tab some good days and some well not so good days..

I think if we all try together maybe something might work as a long term thing. I have been looking at theses tips for so long.. So close but still so faraway you would think there is some common thread amongst all this but its so random and unsure.

Hey Kenchar, if i can end up .1 infront with out lossing my shirt at the end of the day I would be rich & it would be just a matter of investing more?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-01-26 16:49 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-01-26 17:04 ]</font>

[hermes]

Bhagwan, it is only rarely that I can play the waiting game. Usually set and forget systems only. So I'm looking for a device to get close to $3.80 favourites pre-post. I tried:

*favourite must be rated at least 4 points below the highest rated horse on the TABQ ratings. (Usually 96 because the highest will usually be 100)

Hard to find but this will usually give you a race with a longish priced favourite or two equal favourites and other races where there's no concensus among the punters. Not always, of course, but since you are working from the TABQ its a prepost way to target suitable races where the specialist Tipsters excell.

You can also often find long priced favourites in races with 2 or 3 or more 100 raters on the TABQ.

Thanks as always for your ideas Bhagwan. Always get me thinking.

Hermes

[hermes]

There's an example today. Randwick R7. Two 100 rated horses and the prepost favourite was neither of them and was rated 96. The favourite was $3.40 one minute to jump and jumped at $3.20. It is fairly predictable that that favourite was going to jump in the $3-4 range rather than be short priced. Still not very precise though.

Hermes

[kenchar]

good 4th,

That is exactly what I am searching for.

I posted a while ago, give me one unit profit every day I bet (win bet) and I would be a millionaire in a year.

I got absolutely howled down, but that's how simple this punting game should be, but no one can perfect it

What I currently do is good and a nice income but as stated very restrictive.

I have looked at sportodds fixed place prices ( which was kindly posted ) but their prices in most cases on what I back are lower than the tab. I bet to a very fine line to get a profit I have to get the best odds.

I'll run Bhagwan's method through ( better than watching TV ), but at the same time I will combine my place method of selection with Bhagwan's rules for the race and see what comes out of it.

You never know????

Cheers

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-01-26 17:38 ]</font>

[kenchar]

Bhagwan,

Not much good news I'm afraid first month I checked no good. Couldn't see any pattern anywhere so only ran 2 weeks, and no days better or worse than others.

The first day is a tuesday so you can work each day from that.

Radio tab Tips
-.8 +.6
-20.4 +7.2
+3.3 +4.1
-3.5 -6.3
-2.2 -.2
+11.3 -14.5
-6.5 -3.3
+2.1 -13.8
-18.2 +4.6
-16.6 -17.3
+7.4 +1.8
-11.3 +.8
+19.6 -6.9
-6.9 +4.5

-40.7 -38.7

Using my selection method with your rules a disaster.

Back to the drawing board it's out there somewhere.

Cheers

[Hay Chee]

of course its out there just go to a casino play blackjack at 200 a hand and when your 400 up stop and run youll make 400 a day

[kenchar]

Hey Hay Chee where you be I miss you velly much.
I haven't had any 40/1 winners since you stopped posting.

Actually I know where you've been you little bugger, you've been learning spelling 100% improvement.

CONGRATS :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-01-26 23:20 ]</font>