favourites winning sprint races

[limestone lad]

can anyone give me stats on the winning percentage of favourites in races 1200m and shorter .Any info from any track much appreciated

[kenchar]

33%

[limestone lad]

cheers kench do you know which tracks have a high %of favs winning and which tracks are a bookies benefit as im new to aussie racing and need to obtain a bit of basic info

[michaelv]

Here's another question for Sportznut.....based on the info kindly provided by Kenchar in this post, could you let me know why one of your favourite exclusion rules is to exclude all races below 1200m?

It would seem the winning percentage (33%)for these favourites is pretty much the same (if not a little better) as for other distances so would it not be correct to assume that the place strike rate is also similar? (ie 60%) Just curious.

[kenchar]

Favs is favs here there everywhere and have been the same for 100 years any track any distance any country, they average out around 30%.

As far as Sportz not betting under 1200 I should imagine his reasoning is no matter how good the horse is if it misses the jump in the shorter races it's got no chance of making it up.

That's my thoughts anyway I stand to be corrected.

[sportznut]

Michael,

What Kenchar said is partly true. If your horse misses the jump in a short sprint race, you do have almost no chance, but that's not the main reason I don't include them in most systems.

It's a bit hard to explain, but while favourites might do okay in shorter races, they're usually unsuitable for my systems. A high % of runners in short races are either first-up or second-up and a LOT of sprint races are actually won by those runners. In most of my systems, I prefer horses with good consistent recent form, but they just don't tend to perform as well in races less than 1200m. After years of tests, I've found that most of my systems are more profitable if I simply leave those races out.

By the way, favourites also do okay in 2yo races and you'll notice that I don't include those races in my systems either.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-04 21:37 ]</font>

[Felicity]

On 2004-02-03 21:13, limestone lad wrote:
can anyone give me stats on the winning percentage of favourites in races 1200m and shorter .Any info from any track much appreciated



From 1/8/91 to 31/7/01. All going, all fields, all trax. Dist. LESS THAN 1200 m.

61,402 Sole faves.
23,072 Wins (37.6%)
43,919 places (71.5%)

[kenchar]

I am corrected :smile:

I'ts interesting actually as the shorter races are usually the lower class races, and that stacks up the stats on Masseys site (English races) that the favs in maidens + 2yr olds have the highest strike rate.

Must be a system here somewhere :roll:

Thanks Felicity

[crash]

Kenchar and Felicity are both right as Kenchar's figures where an average over all races only.

Felicity's figures represent the early races on most cards where the favorite strike rate is higher for maidens/2yr. olds etc. and are mostly 1200m or less. Favorite win % SR sinks lower than 30% for later races, which explains why it generally gets harder to pick winners as the day goes on.

Sound race track economics is the reason for having these winning favorite weighted races on early, as they are an attraction for exotics players and favorite bettors [ gets them to the track ] and also explains the saying ' giving with one hand and [later] taking back with the other'!

Cheers.

[purpleheart68]

I did try to alert you guys to the high SR in maiden races in a previous post,it is also high in class 1 races too.Every system will tell you not to bet in these races.
Take a look at this:
Thursday 5th FEB
Ipswich
R1(C1)1st 1.60
R2(M) 1st 2.20/2.00
R4(M) unpl.
Echuca
R1(C1)2nd 1.10
R2(M) 1st 3.40/1.30
R3(M) 3rd 1.40
R4(M) unpl.
R10(M)unpl.
Grafton
R1(M) 2nd 1.30
R4(M) 1st 1.60/1.00
R5(M) unpl.
R6(C1) 1st 3.40/1.50
R8(C1) 2nd 1.50

13 races
5 winners
9 places(incl winners)
you don't have to be Einstein to work out the % here.
With this method(it's NOT a system)there are no intricate rules to adhere to,you are simply following "the money" so to speak.
I have bought and paid for my last 2 cars from this method.It does have some "off"days,but overall the SR holds up.
Does anyone else have a method(or system)that has an SR that is consistently between 40/50%??
cheers

[purpleheart68]

Just an aside,do NOT use the prepost market if you wish to operate this method.you must wait as long as possible,because it sometimes happens that the "late money" will cause the 2nd or 3rd fav to become fav just before the jump.

[Felicity]

On 2004-02-06 05:38, crash wrote:


Felicity's figures represent the early races on most cards where the favorite strike rate is higher for maidens/2yr. olds etc. and are mostly 1200m or less. Favorite win % SR sinks lower than 30% for later races, which explains why it generally gets harder to pick winners as the day goes on.



All races 1/8/91 to 31/7/01 ONLY criterion is race number. SOLE FAVOURITE.

R1....37.8%/72.8%
R2....36.6%/70.7%
R3....35.3%/69.4%
R4....34.4%/68.6%
R5....32.8%/66.5%
R6....31.5%/64.3%
R7....29.5%/60.6%
R8....28.2%/58.6%

For the same period 48,111 Maiden race Sole Faves gave 35.7%/69.4%


I'm sure sportznut will come up with a system to cope :smile:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Felicity on 2004-02-06 10:06 ]</font>

[kenchar]

Felicity,
That's amazing how the winning % virtually has a uniform drop from R1 to R8.

So we now have R1 to R4 winning 36%

Races under 1200 winning 37.6%

There is a definate picture forming here.

I know it's a big ask but would it be possible to run through R1 to R4 but only on races 1200 and under.???

Cheers

[Felicity]

I know it's a big ask but would it be possible to run through R1 to R4 but only on races 1200 and under.???


Period as b4. Sole fave. 1200 m. and less.

R1...39.6/74.5
R2...37.9/72.2
R3...36.7/70.9
R4...36.1/69.6
R5...34.7/68.5
R6...32.9/65.5
R7...31.5/62.2
R8...29.8/60.4

Time for a little rest.

[kenchar]

Felicity,

Thanks for that much appreciated.

Cheers

[sportznut]

Sounds brilliant, doesn't it Kenchar. However, I would think there is a fair chance that favourites in the earlier races would also start at proportionally shorter odds than the favourites in later races.

Actually, those figures don't really surprise me all that much, but it is quite amazing that the strike rate goes down in such a uniform scale from the first race to the last. Interesting isn't it? Definitely could be something to look at there.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-06 10:46 ]</font>

[Felicity]

On 2004-02-06 10:39, sportznut wrote:
However, I would think there is a fair chance that favourites in the earlier races would also start at proportionally shorter odds than the favourites in later races.


Luckily I was waiting for Mellors to work up a sweat ..........

Period as b4. Sole Faves <=1200 m.

Race .. Av. Fave Price/Winning Fave Price

R1...$2.60/$2.40
R2...$2.50/$2.30
R3...$2.60/$2.40
R4...$2.60/$2.40
R5...$2.70/$2.40
R6...$2.80/$2.60
R7...$3.00/$2.70
R8...$3.00/$2.80

Now stop tickling my fancy, I've got work to do.

[Chenille Prince]

Perhaps I've missed something Felicity, but is there a reason we are not including stats for recent years ie > 2001

[Felicity]

On 2004-02-06 11:10, Chenille Prince wrote:
is there a reason we are not including stats for recent years ie > 2001


The d/b is presently over 700 mb and Paradox objects to files much larger than this. Hence I've held off adding 2002 and 2003 until I figure out a way of tricking its tiny mind.

[Chrome Prince]

On 2004-02-06 11:40, Felicity wrote:
The d/b is presently over 700 mb and Paradox objects to files much larger than this. Hence I've held off adding 2002 and 2003 until I figure out a way of tricking its tiny mind.


700Mb and Paradox objects?

Lordy, switch to Access :wink:

[kenchar]

FIRST ONE HOME ORANGE R1 #1 $2.1 TAB GOT $2.9 FIXED ODDS :grin:

Way to go got another three $1.8 $2.5 $3.2 all fixed odds.

Finished for the day and haven't had a place bet :grin:

Thanks Felicity


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-02-06 15:32 ]</font>

[Felicity]

On 2004-02-06 13:26, kenchar wrote:

Thanks Felicity



Yr welcome.

Here's an enhancement (about which the titled commentators of this topic will doubtless whinge because it's made up of only 10 years data on the wrong software) that you'll find useful.

As before but NO Slow or Heavy going and NO Maiden races. <=1200 m. Sole Fave.

R1...41.4%/76.9%
R2...39.5%/74.9%
R3...38.3%/72.9%
R4...36.8%/70.7%
R5...35.4%/69.6%
R6...33.1%/66.2%
R7...31.9%/62.2%
R8...30.1%/61.1%

Nice to be able to squeeze an extra point or two.

[kenchar]

Felicity,
This could be what I am looking for, a definate selection with a good strike rate.

I will still run my knock off policy as I've always bet that way.

The only difference to the place is that I can probally have my extra bet if I get over my "wages"

e.g today 1st bet +1.9 2nd bet +.8 total +2.7 so I had the .7 on the next bet that got up so had a full bet on the next which got up.

Then thought bugger it's been a great day why be greedy and stopped.

I don't want to harp on knocking off for the day BUT this could be a very good way to run this method considering the action is early in the day??????

Cheers

[Felicity]

I don't want to harp on knocking off for the day BUT this could be a very good way to run this method considering the action is early in the day??????


Bet the way you feel comfortable with.

One 'extra' you might consider is to bet yr normal way but have a 'yankee' on the side. If you get 4 up, as you did today, it'll pay very handsomely.

[sportznut]

So what races did you actually bet on Kenchar??? I'm sure there were a couple of early races over 1200m or less where the favourite was beaten.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-06 18:11 ]</font>

[kenchar]

Sportz,
Read my last post to micheal on NO1 system

[sportznut]

Oh, that's it. I've just seen your post on the other thread. I take it you set a price limit of $1.70 or $1.80 or something, huh?

[kenchar]

Sportz,
I'm really looking for 2.0 or better, but as I always seem to do is still sus the race out.

e.g Tamworth R1 the fav 2.0 first starter.
The topweight had a couple of starts for a couple of places.
If I would have backed anything in that race it would have been 1 or 3 but I was supposed to be on the fav so left the race.

I think the fav was that just because of jockey and trainer, and they never stopped harping about Rogerson and Cassidy on sky ???

I know it's not exactly what Felicity posted but I think some human assesment has to come into it whether to bet or not.

NOT to change the selection though.

I just think it is a very very good starting point, even to going up to say 1400 metres.

For what I do hit and run I"m hoping it will be a good method.

Time will tell.

Cheers

[becareful]

On 2004-02-06 12:38, Chrome Prince wrote:

700Mb and Paradox objects?

Lordy, switch to Access :wink:



Got to agree with that CP! My db is 1.3GB and Access has no problems at all with the size - I was going to upgrade to SQL server but I like the portability of Access (I can put it on my laptop which can not run SQL server).

[purpleheart68]

Pardon me for "butting in"on your private "tete a tete".There were 14 bettable races across the 4 venues that Unitab operated on Friday 6th,consisting of 10 maiden races and 4 C1.
Results as follows;
Maiden races:
10 races
7 winners
9 places
C1
4 races
1 winner
3 places
I had a field day using parlays(or yankees).
Okay,yesterday was a very good day,but how can you ignore those figures in the maiden races? 70%win SR and 90% place SR.
I will now leave you all to it as nobody seems the slightest bit interested.

[kenchar]

PH,
Dunno what that last post was about????

The thread has been a general discussion on favs in the early races ( low class ).

Every body has put their bit in so I don't think it has been a private conversation

I believe a lot has come out of it, and that is from ALL contributors.

Cheers

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-02-07 09:54 ]</font>

[Felicity]

Time to leave this topic.

The kiddie-winks have moved in.

[sportznut]

Kenchar,

I'm actually working on a plan at the moment for 1000-1200m races. It mainly picks roughies though, so perhaps they might be good to couple up with the Favourites. Anyway, here are the selections for today.

B4-3 Gramodale Gold (5.00)
B6-13 Sweetpick (8.00)
B7-1 Clay Shaker (5.00)
B7-2 Slipstream (7.00)
S3-3 Miss Ivy (6.00)
S6-1 Victory Vein (7.00)
S6-7 Zakynthos Star (9.00)
M7-6 Lady Sophia (9.00)
M8-6 Pretty Penny (8.00)
A3-1 On A Jeune (5.00)
A7-3 Hydrometer (21.00)
A8-1 El Comba (7.00)
A8-12 Relativity (5.00)

PLEASE be EXTREMELY careful if you back them as I've only just started working on this plan and I still need to iron out a few things. Anyway, let's see how they go today.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-07 11:43 ]</font>

[RAG_OX]

The only horses to back in sprints r high winning strike rates "first up" and last start winners,with a strike rate of better than 33%.

[peakester]

MichaelV, Kenchar, Felicity etc

Thanks for the input & discussion on this topic.
As Felicity suggested, Sportsnut we are all awaiting your new you beaut system to incorporate all this info.
By the way Sports, thanks for all your interesting plans - all power to you! It continues to make the forum such a vibrant place. Crash, if I can get the energy I'll give you the spray you so thorougly deserve from your cutting remark/s about forum users on another post.
This info re sprinters does not seem surprising & contrary to other systems, I would have thought 1600m races or less were more reliable than those dawdling distance jobs. In fact some time ago I used to have success with horses racing first up from spells that were rated 90+ in the paper ratings. These often came in at good prices. Has anyone run any data in this area?
By the way, MichaelV other than parlay which I'm not familiar with, how would you suggest betting the 6/2 results.
Is it win only or can it be place only or a mix?
For the others, can it be used as a prepost option - Felicity do you have pre-post data for your results?


Cheers

[sportznut]

Thanks Peakester :smile:

It's actually a bit tricky to make a system with hard and fast rules out of this one. After all, a lot of horses that start on track favourite in these races aren't pre-post favourite in the paper. That makes it tough. However, it does appear that if you back horses which start on track favourite in races over 1200 or less early in the program, you do certainly have a good chance of a high winning strike rate.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-07 13:19 ]</font>

[Felicity]

On 2004-02-07 11:51, sportznut wrote:
However, it does appear that if you back horses which start on track favourite in races over 1200 or less early in the program, you do certainly have a good chance of a high winning strike rate.


Indeed you do ......... but sadly .....

10 yrs data. Sole fave, R1 to R4, FGD going, dist <=1200 m.

SR......... 40.1%

Av. Div ....$2.31

LOT ........-7.6%

cheers

[kenchar]

Felicity,
You beat me to it, I'm behind but not as bad as you posted.
The day is not over.

My actual post was going to be,

MMMMMMMMMM Saturday QUALITY RACES, the ones we are supposed to bet.
I think I'll stick to all those rubbish races mid-week.
I actually backed Charlie Bub, my own pick which helped a lot.

I'm still smiling :smile:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-02-07 15:59 ]</font>

[kenchar]

Smiling even more just got $3.0 special harmony which puts me just ahead.
That will do for the day I'll wait for the rubbish races tomorrow :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-02-07 16:03 ]</font>

[alblyn]

have to agree with you kenchar, the only race that i was going to bet on today was charlie bub, but missed it, i too, seem to do better during the week

[sportznut]

Yeah Felicity, that's pretty much what I had expected. Still that strike rate isn't bad and it could give us something to work with.

[kenchar]

Sportz,
Why didn't you make a typing error in B6 and put in #12 instead of #13 :lol:

And again A7, this might be a good system for roughies, pick the horse for your new idea and back the one either side of it. :smile:

Just joking.

Cheers

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-02-07 17:20 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Yeah, that would have been good. :smile:

I actually did make a BIG BIG mistake with those selections. I sincerely hope nobody has lost too much on them, because by mistake, I included a few horses that should actually have been deleted. I'M REALLY SORRY!!! Geez, it's a bad state of affairs when I'm not even sure of my own rules! :roll:

Victory Vein was a good winner though!!!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-07 17:50 ]</font>

[michaelv]

Peakester, I think you should be directing your question to Purpleheart68 as I don't have any details on the results for the races he mentioned in his post. Sorry

[kenchar]

Felicity,
Sorry I got confused on your last post, probably because it was during the day and was betting.

OK it shows a LOT but can you tell me if the average divi is based on tab prices, because 90% of the time on these races fixed odds is much better than tab.

Just about every bet on this I've got fixed price as better.

I still think it will suit me for my hit and run.

Will update in a few days.

If no good can still go back to the place, but really want to bet for the win.

Cheers

[Felicity]

On 2004-02-08 11:51, kenchar wrote:
can you tell me if the average divi is based on tab prices


Based on SP's

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-02-08 19:47 ]</font>

[Felicity]

On 2004-02-08 11:51, kenchar wrote:

I think it will suit me for my hit and run.



Be a little circumspect with it until yr happy with what's going on.

I had a look at Race 1 1991 to 2003 this afternoon (no S or H).

Sample 26,478 races.

Odds On Faves 6,325
Ord Faves ...20,153

56.1% of the o/o's won at an avdiv of $1.70 (you need $1.80 to b/e)

33.3% of the ords won at $2.60 (you need $3.00 to b/e).

P'raps as a casual "hit & run" it's OK, but long term .................

[emu]

To purpleheart68,

On the first page of this topic you detailed maiden races on the 5th of Feb. ,(last Thursday). Your results were the favourites in each race.
If you backed them all for the win or all for the place (level stakes) you would have suffered a losing day for that day. Am I correct?

[kenchar]

Felicity,

I think I have to agree another baddie today, I think it"s back to the place and Sportz.

Cheers for all the Info.

[sportznut]

Kenchar, I was actually working on a bit of a system for you guys involving pre-post favourites in sprint races.

For a while, I thought I was onto something REALLY good, but after looking back a bit further, the results don't look so good. Anyway, it may still be worth a look. Perhaps you could try it on paper for a few days and see how it goes, before you decide if it's any good:

Races up to 1200m
No 2yo races
At least 8 starters
Clear pre-post favourite
$2.00-$4.00
Must be either a last start beaten fav OR a winner at this track at this distance (simply look for b or c next to the horse's name in the form guide)

Here's how it went on Saturday:
Bris 4-6 Paralo WON 2.80/1.50
Sydn 3-5 Taikun WON 4.40/1.50
Sydn 8-3 Marcellin WON 2.30/1.40
Adel 7-9 Skewiff PLA 2.50

Don't expect results that good every day!!!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-08 22:54 ]</font>

[kenchar]

Sportz,

Thanks for that I'll paper it for a few days just to see, But tomorrow I'm back on the place, and your other methods.

Cheers

[kenchar]

Sportz,

Thanks for that I'll paper it for a few days just to see, But tomorrow I'm back on the place, and your other methods.

Cheers

[kenchar]

Bloody wine has give me the hiccups :lol:

[sportznut]

Okay, I've done some more research on those rules and it looks like the excellent results obtained in recent weeks were probably just a flash in the pan. Sorry about that! Oh well, back to the old drawing board!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-10 14:03 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Well, they did okay today. 2 out of 3 and a nice little profit. Who knows? There may be something in this!

[michaelv]

Sportz, I have a valid question that I'm sure many of your followers probably would like to ask but perhaps haven't thought of it just yet..........

As you know some of your systems have a 'spell' filter in place so could YOU clarify the number of days that constitute a spell? Some form papers only put an 'x' in the form column if the last start was 80 days ago or more so how would say handle a break of 60 or 70 days for example?

In this instance, the horse's form line would show no 'spell' (eg 5731) but in reality there probably was one (eg 5731X). But, I would like your thoughts on this so that I use your systems correctly.

[alblyn]

lucky for me that I had pre bet, also had valiant lad, had a win yesterday at hobart on this system. thankyou

[sportznut]

I hope you did well with it. As I said, this plan has been doing BRILLIANTLY in the last few weeks, but when I looked at the results from a little further back, it didn't do anywhere near as well. Anyway, we may as well enjoy it while it's performing.

As for the spell, I use it exactly as it is shown in the form guide. If there is an X next to the horse's name, I regard this as a spell. In the example you used, I would regard this horse as NOT returning from a spell, even though it HAS actually had quite a while off.

[michaelv]

Thanks for the clarification Sportz......

[slapstick]

Felicity, sorry to be a pain in the arse but if you get a chance could you please give me a couple of stats.

1. For <=1200, Sole Fav., No Slow/Heavy/Maidens, I would like the average starting place price for the favourite and the average starting place dividend for the favourites that have placed.

2. The same but simply <= 1200, no restrictions.

...in the same fashion as your previous R1+ results posted?

[Felicity]

On 2004-02-10 22:33, slapstick wrote:

1. For <=1200, Sole Fav., No Slow/Heavy/Maidens, I would like the average starting place price for the favourite and the average starting place dividend for the favourites that have placed.

2. The same but simply <= 1200, no restrictions.


Coupla things.

"sorry to be a pain in the arse"
You remind me of some of my husbands.

As a busy person I generally only supply stats where there is a possibility that others may get into trouble because of small sample size system generation. It's very easy to pick a couple of years stats and build a system around "data-clumping" of some statistical aberration only to have it fail shortly after you've ploughed your hard earned into it.

If a method interests me then I'll have a good look at it, but I rely on my own ratings to make a bob or two.

Sportznut's #1 system is one that yr unlikely to get into trouble with and generates a profit (albeit modest) in the medium term.

Now, having stepped down from the pulpit ...

1/8/1991 - 1/8/2003

SOLE FAVOURITE

<=1200, no S or H, no MDN
AVSPFAVE....... $2.63
AVSPPLACEDFAVE. $2.49

<=1200 no restrictions

AVSPFAVE........$2.68
AVSPPLACEDFAVE..$2.55

rgds

[slapstick]

I agree with your thoughts but I really am not looking to create anymore systems I was just interested to match up the dividends with the 74-76% ratios of placings.

Thanks for that Flip!

[nevets]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: nevets on 2004-03-11 13:07 ]</font>

[markallan]

i have run 1200 mtr races and below since 1/8/01 (since felicity's database result) up until last weekend for the following result:
number of races:16,358
favourites won
race 1 = 35%
race 2 = 34%
race 3 = 34%
race 4 = 31%
race 5 = 33%
race 6 = 30%
race 7 = 28%
race 8 = 27%
race 9 = 29%
race 10 = 13% (only 45 races)

total: 5304 winners from 16358 races (32% win s/r) and a loss on t/o of 11.5%.place s/r was 63%!!. all races lost money irrespective of their s/r.

maidens only result: had a 34% win s/r but still lost 10%.