number 2 to place plan

[hermes]

Here's my contribution today. It follows from some of Baghwans older posts where he points out that #2s are in the money almost as often as #1 but pay better. This strategy romped through my sampling with a 7% profit on turnover unfiltered on places. (Wins were break even).

It is very simple. The target group is all #2 runners rated 4 or more points higher than #1 on the TABQ (AAP) ratings. Back to place. Pass races where #1 is scratched.

To filter the qualifier must meet any three of the following (usual) conditions that point to some talent:

*D or C form
*Inside or outside barrier
*Only 100 rater runner in race
*Third race from a spell
*Last start winner
*Two places over last three starts
*Also rated higher than #3
*Among the RadioTab top 2 selections
*Improving positions over last three races

A good strike rate. Check the results yesterday. Five bets. Five placegetters.

Mr Timbula 2.40/1.40
Shangos Image 1.20
Traditional Vain 1.50
Tenesse Tom 1.60
Dangerous Illusion 1.30

Even unfiltered it is a safe and simple placegetting strategy.

Hermes

[pardon me]

hi hermes , i like the sound of your #2 place method and some random checks unfiltered gave 9%pot over approx 6mths of the random sample, maybe i ned to check filters and see what resuts thanks anyway

[hermes]

Hope you can make some money from it, Pardon. As usual the days after I posted the idea it crashed miserably. But it did perform well for placegetters in my samples and I'm glad your sampling matched mine. I don't have stats but I'm under the general impression that #2s are a good group as placegetters. Anyone know how often 2s run in the money overall?

Best of luck.

Hermes

[Our Maizcay]

hermes,

I did a sample today of this. I made one change to the rules...

If it is a 100 rater then it automatically is better rated than the #3 horse, so you gain one of the three requirements by default. I didn't include the #3 rule if the 32 was rated at 100.

I got two selections for today..

QR4 Vertara 3rd 1.60
PR4 Cartridge 2nd 1.60

There were a number of Number Twos that one today but could only manage to match two of the requirements ... c'est la vie...

Anyother testing done?


Regards,

OM

[Our Maizcay]

sorry it's getting late...

too many errors in the previous post..

this should be it...
"I didn't include the #3 rule if the #2 was rated at 100."

"There were a number of Number Twos that won today."