Group and Listed Race Plan

[Our Maizcay]

Over the last few weeks I have taken note of hermes preference to backing horses in the outside barrier, and how better prices may be obtained by doing so.

I have taken heed of this and looked at how some of my current systems would perform using the outer barriers (not necessarily THE outer barrier).

I have a very limited amount of data to go back and check these figures beyond what I have, so if anybody can supply a few years worth, then that will be great.

Here goes...

1. Group or Listed Races
2. Won last start
3. Placed the start before .. ie..1,2,3
4. Racing within 15 days of last start
5. Distance change .. -150 to +150
6. Barrier position 10 or more

This will obviously rule out races of 9 or less.

My limited data shows a profit of over 300% for the win and 100% for the place. A larger sample would be more appropriate.

As I am typing this, there is a contender at Ascot in 35mins (Ascot Race 5#1 - Kentiara). This is a Listed race.

The outside barriers can be more profitable, and some of the good horses can overcome this. Our Maizcay was a superb example of this when he sprinted from the outside barriers to lead all the way in his races. Sunline was the same.

The lesser known horses obviously get pumped up a few dollars because they are initialy hanging out wide.

Thanks for thoughts hermes, most appreciated. I hope this proves profitable in the long term, and if it does, everyone here can benefit from it...

OM

[Our Maizcay]

Well, Kentiara got up and paid $3.50/$1.70 on UniTAB.

Interested in others thoughts...

OM

[alblyn]

doomben race 5, number 15, ski the tide
1. group 1222m,
2. won last race
3. place last start- 3rd
4. 24.01.04
5. distance change 129m
6. won today paying $23.50 & $7.90place
I hope this is right.

[Our Maizcay]

alblyn,

All the criteria was met except that it wasn't a Group or Listed race .. (It was the BMD Group .. a group of companies).

Maybe it might be relevant to other races, I'm not too sure. I just re-adjusted one of my major races systems to come to this conclusion. I haven't tried all other race types. I don't have enough data to carry out a conclusive study.

I am trying to win cash to pay for Cyberhorse historical zip files. That's where any current profits are going!!

alblyn, glad you had a look though, there is always a possibility I may overlook a race.

Regards,

OM

[Our Maizcay]

Another selection today in the Hobart Cup. (I had no idea that Tasmania had a Group 1 race, let alone any Group races!!!).

Selection..
#3 Dream Quest 2nd $2.20 on UniTAB

No selections in the 2 Group races.

[Freak]

Being a bit naive, what exactly are "group" and "listed" races. How are they identified?

[sportznut]

Group and Listed races are simply the major feature races and are generally contested by the best horses and carry the most prizemoney. Group 1 is considered to be the strongest class of racing, followed by Group 2, then Group 3, then Listed races. There are only about 65 Group 1 races in Australia each year and they are the races that the owners, trainers and jockeys want to win the most.

Some form guides will actually identify these feature races for you by printing at the top of the race 'Group 1' or whatever status the race has. Not all form guides do that however.

By the way, can someone check on the status of the Hobart Cup please. Someone said it was Group 1, but I think it may actually be Group 2 or 3.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-10 08:53 ]</font>

[stebbo]

Hi Sportz,

Cyberhorse form has the Hobart Cup listed as a Group 3.

Cheers,
Chris.

[Freak]

The Hobart Cup was a Group 3 as stated in the Melbourne Sun. I can now see where the info comes from (in most cases).
Cheers

[sportznut]

Yeah, that's about what I expected. I thought it was about Group 3 or Listed race standard.

[Felicity]

On 2004-02-07 18:07, Our Maizcay wrote:

1. Group or Listed Races
2. Won last start
3. Placed the start before .. ie..1,2,3
4. Racing within 15 days of last start
5. Distance change .. -150 to +150
6. Barrier position 10 or more

profit of over 300% for the win and 100% for the place. A larger sample would be more appropriate.


Looking at a larger sample (1991 - 2003) satisfying your criteria ........

WIN SR........ 17.11%
AVDIV..........$5.37
POT............-8.16%

PLACE SR.......36.51%
AVDIV..........$2.60
POT............-5.16%

Sorry to rain on your parade :sad:

[Our Maizcay]

Thanks Felicity,

q/ Sorry to rain on your parade q

The larger sample gets ya everytime.

Maybe I should sell the idea now while my figures look good, and let all purchasers suffer down the track :smile:

Seriously ... I appreciate the feedback and for you taking the time to publish the results.

OM.

Felicicty, with that many years of data, are you able to shed any light on what works and what dosnt, what have been the main key factors in a successful selection method, one in which you may be using just so we can see what you look for in a successful profitable method.

[crash]

Adam,

The % of favorites winning is around the 30% mark and hasn't change since the year dot.

Computing power helps reduce the work load, but has not improved the fav. SR. one iota. Otherwise, every one with a puter would be rich and the fav. SR would have improved.
Ditto regarding systems [ yes, they can work for awhile but the fav., SR is still 30% so something is not working !!! ].

If time is an enemy, software has a definite place and will improve your handicapping efforts. What it won't do is make you rich. Beyond 30%, the variables get you and your puter.

Convincing you otherwise is the secret of selling 'race winning' software and tipping services that claim 'worked out by a computer' !!!

Software such a Cyberform and what is sold here are no more than great handicapping tools that do a lot of the legwork for you and even offer up suggested selections and other handy features [ If you have XL and know how to use it, Cyberform and Price predictor pro. are a great combo ].

After 30% though you are on your own and it is up to you to make the right 'guesses' based on your experience and good/bad abilities.

An individual punter can improve on 30% because there are others getting nowhere near that, but the wash comes out at 30% overall.

The air shared among consistent profit takers [ pro. punters ] is rarefied indeed.
Software and puters has made no difference to their number [ as a % of punters ] and I'm not one of them either.

Cheers.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-02-27 11:15 ]</font>

[Mark]

Well put Crash.

[crash]

Thanks Mark,

The greatest gift and tool any punter has is his/her power to 'reason'.

Why is it the first thing thrown out the window when the illogical is presented as possible $$$ in the bank ?

Cheers.