Probability in beating the tote

[Benny]

Can someone help? Is it possible to work out the probability(looking for value) i.e what price a horse should be.

Benny

[kenchar]

100/1

[puntz]

Benny,
the market is a "refleection"...
You need then to determine in "who's image" is that reflection coming from and why those prices are there.
Not sure what you mean about probability, cos it ain't a roulette wheel, or "chance based"
The "base" is the punter.

[crash]

Considering we can accurately predict consistently only 30% of race outcomes, the other 70% is indeed chance. Not random as our own efforts of measuring variables accurately some/most of the time, vary the probability of us getting it correct beyond 30%.

Cheers.

[puntz]

So perhaps then it's the probabilty of the punter getting it right ?
Emmm, dare I say, the, bookies seem to get it right more often than the punters ?
The rest follow...won't go into that one but the market does have it's odd days (the enigma of the "bias phenomenon")might throw things way out of proportion.
another one for the equation...therefore a % of random to think about,33.3%'s of fav's, your own strike rate, etc etc.

[crash]

Puntz wrote: 'So perhaps then it's the probability of the punter getting it right ?'

Yep, exactly what I had said [ ability to interpret variables or, 'the punter getting it right' ].

Bookies are professional gamblers that also have the advantage of setting the odds so they are hard to beat.

'Bias' is just another variable to be interpreted.

The favorite strike rate [ 30% ] is as good as it gets in overall year in, year out collective consistency. Beyond that, individual skill [ interpreting race variables, race selection etc. ] can improve/diminish our overall personnel success beyond/below 30%.

The above refers to our ability to select winners only and not other areas such as the skill involved in turning a profit [ betting strategy, money management etc.].

Horse racing [ 70% of it anyway ] is just another game of chance where we can select our own numbers, like Tattslotto. The only difference is the odds and degree of randomness. One, variable through skill, the other, completely random.

Benny asks, what price a horse ? In who's opinion would be the answer as a horse's value [odds of winning ] can't be scientifically measured.

'A horse, a horse, my Kingdom for a horse !'
Obviously, opinions differ.

Cheers.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-02-17 10:26 ]</font>

[darkydog2002]

Benny.The form pro site has an article on what your after.
Cheers.
darky.

[hermes]

That was a great post Crash, thanks.

Hermes