Time is always my worst enemy what about you?

[Twodogs]

I never can find enough time for form study. Always intend to do what I believe is needed and always find I run out of time or something distracts me. I can fully understand why people look for short cuts to winners.

Cheers
Twodogs

[Desi]

You cant bet on every race and it helps if you have a system or access to someone's system that gives you a bet of the day or meeting...

[Shaun]

the first thing i do when i get the paper is decide on what races i am going to work with.....it is best to find the races that you have the most success on if you try and bet them all you will go broke in the end.....i try to work on open races and higher i won't bet on 2yo or 3yo only races unless they are of Group type races and avoid and restricted races this will give me about 12 races in 5 states more at carnival time....if you cut out the short priced runners and large fields of 17 or more you can reduce this number to about 8 thats plenty of races......if you need more action than that then try this...if you have a bank of say $200 for the day and have say 7 races that you want to bet on devide the bank in to 8 this gives you 7 bets of $25 and $25 left over for your other bets....you won't have much to bet on extra horses say $1 or $2 the win but atleast if they all fail you main bets should get your money back....if you can't handle this maybe you should not be betting

[Twodogs]

I totally agree with both your posts. I suppose with me I get started and focused and would do better if it wasn't for distractions. On a Friday I find smokos and lunch as good a time to do the study but they aren't long enough and by the time I get home in the evening well mentally I am too tired to make a serious effort. Maybe its just me but geeze it would be fantastic if the field were finalised on a Wednesday rather than Thursday.

[Chrome Prince]

Not suggesting that programs or software are the be all and end all, but much time can be saved by at least automating some of the form study.

Perhaps using paper type guides are not as efficient and easy to work with as html files.

The cost of form files is really insignificant if you equate the value of your time.

If anyone needs some help with excel formulae or setup I'll help where I can.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-02-25 17:30 ]</font>

[topsy99]

you need to follow a criteria.
i follow listed horses. i know i miss a lot of opportunities but simply because of the time factor. i use a database and a program and cyberhorse htmls and i instantly have my stable for the day then i need to work out if they can win. some days there are not selections at all. i find this out within 2 minutes.

I couldnt possibly start with a racing page without some selection criteria.

[Merriguy]

Topsy,

How do you define "listed horses". You often refer to them in your posts.

I know there are listed and group races; but how does a horse become listed? Probably obvious; but I'm afraid I don't know the answer :oops:

[topsy99]

each monday in the australian newspaper race results they list all the listed and group race results for australia and new zealand.
i put all the placed horses in a database with the name,date,distance,track conditions,and class e.g. group 1 win = 1 group 1 placed = 2 group 2 win = 3 placed = 4
up to listed.
and then when races are abnormal prizemoney such as eagle farm on saturday where there were two of $50,000 i rate as 7a and 8 b
listed is 7 and 8
e.g. our fabio won on sat as did ski the tide and fires of ireland all of these 3 came from 7a and 8b races on 8/2/04.
not a bad bit of classing eh?
i also do a handicap calculation on them auto in the program which i call my "swing weights".
hope this helps. the method simplifies my workouts and makes it a bit of fun rather than a huge chore.
regards

[Merriguy]

Thanks, Topsy. Will take a bit of digesting by this old guy; but I understand a lot more now.

Thanks tt for the tip about "The Australian". I didn't know they had that service.

[Twodogs]

http://www.nvo.com/racing

The above web site is a beaut for black type events. It has results of black type and also all the upcoming black type races.

My biggest problem I guess is finding my direction. Once I can find that I can focus my time better. It's just finding my direction!!!!!!!!!

Twodogs

[Chrome Prince]

topsy99,

Do you find that:

a) The time since a LR win or placing affects the system?

b)The number of LR wins or placings affects the system?

I would imagine that your longshots come from LR horses which haven't won for quite some time, but what about the strike rate?

I'll understand if you do not wish to divulge this info.

[topsy99]

no problems discussing.
i dont think interpretations of any system makes a lot of difference to anyone else.
due to the fact we could all look at a 10 horse race and come up with 8 different winners due to our selection processes.

back to the question.

i have published on here a study i did over a 16 month period from newpaper results (manually) till i got sick of doing it.

they were. of about 1200 prequalified listed horses that won races over the period, yes there are a lot of winners but then again a lot of starters.

33% had qualified in the past 8 weeks prior to them winning.
80% had qualified in the previous 12 months 95% 24 months only 5% of them were longer than two years since qualifying.
which emphasises that current form is good form.
longshots come from anywhere - recently we were discussing dedicated miss paying $48 it qualified last start(previous).
i recall luther winning in sydney a couple of years ago he had qualified the start before (started 80/1).
when toledo won the manikato it had qualified two starts previously.
piavonic beat sunline at 45/1 after qualifying at group 2 previous start (leap of faith)
i know people will say i am being selective in quoting the above so i shouldnt do it.
on saturday ski the tide our fabio and fires of ireland all qualified last start using the higher prizemoney theory.
i had qualified them and backed them.
i guess to answer your question most recent qualifiers is a good term to use and have some faith.
in ascot on saturday spirit lady qualified two starts previously and won at 12/1.