using don scott's theories

[chua6666]

Has anybody got a copy of one of Don Scott's books handy -- WINNING or WINNING MORE? I have a question on when Don was making his own betting market from his final ratings. He would give his top-rated horse 100 points (or 1.0, whatever). How many points would be allot to horses rated one length (i.e. 1.5 kilos) behind his top rater? And how many points for horses rated two lengths, three lengths, four lengths, and five lengths from his top rater? Has anyone got any suggestions on how many points such horses should get, if the top-rater gets 100 points?

[darkydog2002]

I believe it was 4 points = 1 length
A horse rated at 96 would be rated 1 length inferior.
Cheers.
darky

[thetout]

top rater=0 kgs or 1 =100 > .5 kg =.90 or 90% > 1kg =.80 or 80% > 1.5 kgs =.67 or 67% > 2 kgs =.57 or 57% > 2.5 kgs =.50 or 50% > 3 kgs =.40 or 40% >3.5 kgs =.33 or 33% > 4 kgs =.25 or 25%. Scott said to price down to 3.5 kgs inclusive.So if you have 5 horses say t/r=0/1-/1kg=.80-/1.5kg=.67-/2.5=.50-/3.5kgs=.40.Add 1+.8+.67+.50+.40=[3.37]divide 1/3.37 or 100/3.37=29.67 then 100/29.67=$3.37 or 3.40[100%]then do the same with other rated horses.

[chua6666]

Many thanks darkydog2002 and thetout for your help.
Does anyone out there make their own markets for the horse racing?
If so, is there a better way that using Don Scott's method?

[thetout]

Chua6666. Scott's ratings was for betting so called value if he could obtain a price above his rated horses they became a bet if not they were passed up as non-value.I prefer to rate the horses and bet my top pick or ditch book top 3 on bookies perc%.Or take my top 3with next 2,with next3/4 in tri or 1st 4.=3*5*8*8 for a perc%.100%=$360 for 1 unit.10%=$36

[thetout]

Chua6666. Scott's ratings was for betting so called value if he could obtain a price above his rated horses they became a bet if not they were passed up as non-value.I prefer to rate the horses and bet my top pick or dutch book top 3 on bookies perc%.Or take my top 3with next 2,with next3/4 in tri or 1st 4.=3*5*8*8 for a perc%.100%=$360 for 1 unit.10%=$36

[the raven]

i have read dons book winning more and have developed a ratings approach based on his class ratings. i have used this approach for 3 years and i have achieved a pot of 240%. obviously, dons ratings are still very relevant in this day and age, is anyone else using dons ratings successfully?

[shoto]

the raven, well done. Do you use the class figures as given or have you modified them, and how would you normally back your selections?

[the raven]

i use dons ratings straight from winning more but only the class figures from his tables of different states, i make my ratings based on the results of major meetings and apply the most recent performance to any race i am handicapping.
i work out the rating for each runner in an event but bet on the first 3 rated horses paying $10 or greater on the tote, in this way i get maximum overlays. as for the staking plan l want to protect the details involved but it involves a moderate progression plan which wins overtime, its necessary not to be too aggressive. i restart the progression each time i make a profit.

[Sandgroper]

My main rating system (focusing only on Perth metrop) is based on Don Scott’s ideas – have been using successfully for well over 10 years. Wrote my own programs in the original “basic” programming language. These programs still work today! (DOS based) – thinking of updating though to say Access or straight VB. Have developed my own class figures, did use Don’s to start off with. Have developed and maintained my own jockey ratings. Also have modified the barrier factor (don’t think as important), consistency and form pattern factors. Frame my market as per Don Scott’s formula but frame it say 5% or 10% in my favour for the higher class races. Punt on them as per the DS method, but also focus on first six rated for the multiples. Anything I’ve rated 8/1 or less, that I don’t get on (odds on offer are under) I use as a banker in various multiples. Have gradually increased my base betting unit over time.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-03-15 10:55 ]</font>

[nevets]

chua666 heres my email addy vonnika@hotmail.com
Ive got a copy of Winning... email me where to send it and its yours gratis ..no point in having it upstairs on the shelf if somebody can use it ...cheers nevets

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: nevets on 2004-03-16 11:27 ]</font>

[Burdekin]

To all you systems guys that use Don Scott, I am trying to track down some info on his Barrier Position Tables that would apply to new/altered tracks since his publications. (I have submitted this to a separate post, but am keen to find out how others coped with this).
.
.
Barrier Position Tables - Appendic C of the book - "Winning More"...
I use them in rating races but do not have them for Randwick-Kensington, Sandown-Hillside and Sandown-Lakeside. Has anyone researched what they would be for these tracks and prepared to pass them on ? Any info would be greatly appreciated.

[Paddy]

Perhaps you could work backwards Burdekin, get winning barrier position stats for distances at those tracks & then formulate your own barrier position tables.