Backing From A Spell

[Shaun]

I was reading a system the other day and wanted your opinions these are the rules

1) look for a runner resumeing from a spell or one that has not won since started from a spell

2) horse must be between 3yo and 6yo

3) must have a win strike of 20% or more

4) back the horse at each of it's next starts untill it wins then discard the horse from your selections

5) the staking for this plan is to win a defined amount plus all loses when the horse wins


As an extra few rules i would change the win % to 30% and only look at the top 5 stables in the country

[CosMos]

Got this from a book on punting years ago and posted it in a thread earlier but no-one responded.

FIVE YEAR OLD SYSTEM:

Races 1600m and beyond.
When a top 5 year old who was well up in the weights on going out for a spell resumes again, providing it is starting over its "true" distance, start backing it from and including its third start back. Follow it up to three times. It often churns out good divvies, especially during Spring and
Autumn.

The same book spoke about the re-cooperative powers of a 4 year old. Often all they need is a bit of a spell to freshen them and they win or go close to winning first up. To paraphrase: "Right throughout the season, a good four year old usually continues as a
reliable betting proposition. Usually when a good four year old resumes after a winter spell, you can reasonably expect a bold first up effort. In fact, if it managed good sprint form in the previous season, it is almost sure to go within an ace of winning fresh-up and quite often at good odds.

If they happen to go "stale" and consequently off form, often all they
need to regain form is a "freshener" of about a month or so, to come bouncing right back to winning form. If a four year olds form in the preceding season leaned towards staying potential rather than sprinting
ability, follow it from and including its third start back.

Can produce some huge dividends but haven't followed it for long enough. I would suggest only backing those that have won
(a) over the distance
(b) races to 1400m
(c) win/place 25%+
(d) won freshup in past.

Cheers

[CosMos]

Just rechecking and would alter system rules slightly to

(a) races to 1400m
(b) won fresh up in past
(c) win/place 25%+ over distance