Unitab System for Sun 14 March

[michaelg]

There will be no selections for races where there are more than twelve runners. To recap the rules:
1 ) No Slow or Heavy tracks.
2 ) Only races between 8 and 12 starters inclusive.
3 ) Gap of 3 points-plus on Unitab ratings.
4 ) Selection must have placed at last start.
5 ) Selection must be in top 3 pre-post faves.
6 ) Selection must have had at least 2 starts this campaign.

The results based on these rules for the past seven days (Sun. to Sat. inclusive) are:

27 races for 22 placings including 17 winners. One of Thursday's selections was Rocky R6 no. 1. The track was Dead and the forecast was for showers - the track was subsequently downgraded to Slow. The selection won paying $1.80 and $1.20, but I have omitted this from the 7-day results, and will omit all venues where the track is Dead and showers are forecast.

The return for the win bet was $48.40 (79% POT), and $30.50 (12% POT) for the place bet. 6 selections paid $1.04 for the place, but I have reduced this to $1.00 which has been reflected in the results.

For my Place bets, there were 14 selections for 10 places including 6 winners. The return on win betting was $21.80 (55% POT), and $15.50 (10% POT) for the place. I would not be surprised if this system outperforms the Unitab system.

Today's Unitab selections are:
Canberra R2 no. 11 - Perette
Albury R6 no. 2 - Regal Hawk
Hobart R3 no. 1 - Tom's Top
Hobart R7 no. 1 - Squire Moor.

My Place bets are:
Albury R6 no. 2 - Regal Hawk
Hobart r7 no. 1 - Squire Moor.

[Freak]

Michealg,Still wondering about the rules for the place system?
Ken

[michaelg]

Hi, Freak.

I haven't listed the rules and have not yet decided if to reveal them. However, if the system continues to perform I might. I should not call it a Place system as it is an each-way system which shows a profit for both the win and place. I have used it over the past five Sat's on metrop racing only, and yesterday was the only losing day. Although if I had kept to metrop tracks only as I did for the previous weekends I would have won. Yesterday, there were three selections (two at Adelaide and one at Brisbane) for three placings including a winner. The win return was $4.00 and $3.50 for the place. It's only recently I decided to test it on all racing, and to list the selections with those of the Unitab system.

There have been two Unitab selections so far today, and they have both lost! The next two selections coincide with my system.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: michaelg on 2004-03-14 16:15 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: michaelg on 2004-03-14 16:20 ]</font>

[michaelv]

Hi Michaelg, the system certainly seems to be going fantastically at the moment but concerning yesterday......I noticed Force Apollo too but in my paper (Syd Morning Herald) it was 4th fav at $6.50 with Regal R $3.00, Tintagel $4.00, Vicksburg $5.50 and then Force Apollo. Therefore not in 1st 3 favs so not a bet (damn it). Which paper do you use?

And also, for today......does not Geraldton R3-2 Grey Feather (gap3-form1321-8starters-$3.50 2ndfav) qualify?

And I decided to do a 'spot-check' on the week beginning Sat 7th Feb using these rules and the unitab ratings and the results came as quite a shock.

Now mind you, it was a very quick look but the Sat showed 6 bets for only 1 sole placing at $1.10........Perhaps I'm not working them out correctly or perhaps the ratings have changed lately but you might like to do a spot check yourself and see if I'm right.

The Sunday (8th) was much better with 2wins ($2.70/$1.40 & $2.20/$1.40) and 1 other placing ($2.00) from 4bets. However the Monday (9th) had 2 non-placed bets while Wed (11th) secured 1 placing from 1 bet ($2.10) and Thurs (12th)got 2 placings ($1.30 & $1.20) from 3 bets while Friday (13th) managed a Win ($2.40/$1.30) from the 1 bet.

Overall there seemed to be 17 bets (for the week) for 3 wins ($11.60) and 8 placings ($11.80). I hope I AM wrong. I happened to have the form papers for this week so thought I'd see how it went. If you look carefully at the above results it was really only the Saturday that let the side down....6 units down for the win and 4.9 units down for the place.

_________________
Regards

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: michaelv on 2004-03-14 16:41 ]</font>

[michaelg]

Hi, Michaelv.

The newspaper I use for the pre-post market is the Telegraph. Yesterday, Force Apollo was the $4.00 fav. Tintagel was second fav at $4.50, and third outright was Regal Roller at $6.00.

Unfortunately, today's Tele doesn't give a market for Geraldton or Terang, so I've had to omit them. As it seems the Tele and Herald can differ quite substantially in the prices, Grey Feather might not be a selection according to the Tele.

I don't know how to get Sat Feb 7 Unitab ratings. If I could I'd certainly have a look at them, as it would be a big worry if there was only one placing from 6 bets. Did you use the prices from the Herald? If you list the six selections here I'll have a look at the prices in the Tele. And it's not too difficult to make a mistake identifying the 3-point gaps on Unitab. I've done it a few times, so I double-check now. Even that does not guarantee accuracy.

[sportznut]

Michael, when you go into the Racing section of the Unitab website, simply click on 'Racing' again and you'll find a 'Results And Search' section. Click on that and you can check all the results and ratings for the last 2 years if you want. You'll also see a 'Tomorrow' section which usually allows you to check all the ratings for the following day. Tomorrow's ratings for Armidale and Stawell are up already.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-14 17:49 ]</font>

[michaelg]

Hi, Sportznut.

Thanks for the information. Tomorrow (Monday) I'll check it out. Hopefully Sat 7 Feb will not be a disaster.

[michaelg]

Hi, Michaelv.

I've looked at the Unitab system results for Sat 7 Feb. I agree with your figures of one placegetter from six selections. Not very good!!!

Out of interest, the results for Sat 6 Mar was five selections for five placegetters with 3 winners. Last Sat was also profitable. The last two Sat's produced 14 selections for 13 places with 9 wins, so maybe 7 Feb was the exception. The profit on place betting was $4.30 and $11.50 for the win. This would have eased some of the pain from 7 Feb. If I get some spare time I'll look at the results for more Saturdays.

[michaelv]

I too have been looking at a few other days and yes, there were some great days. I guess you can't expect to have EVERY betting day a profitable one...it's just not realistic is it? Does anyone out there have a system that works EVERY betting day?

As long as you come out in front over overall the odd 'LOSING' days won't hurt that much. It's only when they happen day after day after...then they hurt the bank as well as the spirit.

It's certainly in a 'good run' period at the moment even considering the small dividends. You know betting for the WIN might be the way to go with this plan.

Would you mind providing a running total of Wins/Places/returns as you go each day - if it's not too much trouble?

It saves all of us having to keep a tally ourselves with the distinct possibly of making silly errors and doing the system an injustice.

[michaelg]

Michaelv.

I keep a daily record, so when I post the selections I'll list the results. I'll do it commencing the 7-day period, so tomorrow I'll show the results from Sun 14 and Mon 15. Then at the end of the 7-day period I'll show the progressive results from commencement which is Sunday 7 March - that is of course if the system doesn't completely crash.

[peakester]

MichaelG,

Congrats on your system - it is neat, the rules logical & so far it is doing well.

Is distance of race another possible filter? In my opinion races up to 1600m tend to be more truly run. Have you found the losing selections to be in races greater than 1600? Are there any other filters you might consider or are these your final rules?

Well done again & thanks for sharing system with the forum.

Cheers!

[michaelg]

Hi, Peakester.

The current rules are not final. There have been a few contributors who have suggested new rules which have proven to be beneficial, and these have consequently been adopted for the system. If anyone can provide further suggestions I will be happy to look at them.

I haven't considered the distance factor. However, I will do so now.