Unitab System for Mon 15 March

[michaelg]

Only one Unitab selection today:

Stawell R4 no.4 - Shakia.

No selections for my system.

[jacfin]

Michael
If the 100 rater is scratched do you then apply the rules to the top rated horse regardless of points?

[michaelg]

Hi, Jacfin.

I don't know the method that Unitab/AAP calculate the ratings, and it's possible that had the scratching been known by them (an early scratching), they could subsequently rate a horse as their number one selection which might be different to the horse with the most points had the 100 pointer been a late scratching. For example, the 100 pointer might be a slow/fast beginner, a leader, etc. which could enhance/impede the chances of another horse(s), and which Unitab/AAP had factored into their calculations. Now with the scratching, the entire tenor of the race might to Unitab/AAP be complety different. I would be inclined to ignore the race. Maybe someone else might have a different view?

P.S. Today's only selection won.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: michaelg on 2004-03-15 17:03 ]</font>

[sportznut]

They do the ratings for all the horses the day before the race and if the 100 rater is scratched on the day, they simply take it out of the field and don't adjust any of the other ratings at all.

Personally, I'm only really interested in the 100 raters and if they happen to be scratched, then I just tend to ignore the ratings for that race.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-15 17:40 ]</font>

[jacfin]

I've been doing considerable research on the 100 pointers and the situation which Sportz describes is quite common.
I agree with you Michael that the withdrawal of the 100 rater may change the complexion of the race.
Perhaps the rules could be amended to consider only 100 pointers?

[michaelg]

Hi, Jacfin.

We only look at 100 pointers. I have done no research if the top rater is less than 100. From tomorrow I'll have a look at these races, but from memory I don't think there are too many of them. As a matter of interest - does anyone know why a top selection can be rated at 100 points while the top selection in another race might only have 99 points? Is this because the 100 pointer is a scratching, or could there be another reason?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: michaelg on 2004-03-15 20:28 ]</font>

[sportznut]

As I said in my earlier post, they work out the ratings before scratchings and if the 100 rater is scratched, they simply take it out without adjusting the ratings of the other runners. Personally, I find it easier to just ignore the ratings in these races.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-15 20:40 ]</font>