Unitab's selections for Tuesday 16 March

[michaelg]

Hi, Peakester.

I've looked at races where the distance exceeds 1,600 metres. From Mon 8 March to yesterday there were 9 races for 8 placings including 7 winners. Maybe our filters have eliminated poor selections, and also maybe Unitab's ratings are worthwile - we hope so.

Update: - there have been 5 selections since Sun 15 March for 3 placings including 2 winners. For these two days, Place betting is losing $0.50, and win betting is losing $0.80.

Today's selections are:
Warwick F. R7 no. 7 - West Country
Townsville R3 no. 3 - Social Swing
Townsville R6 no. 2 - Gazzam.

If anyone is interested, using the same rules there is one selection today from Tabcorp's ratings:
Bendigo R4 no. 2 - The Challenger.

For the same period (Sun 15 March to yesterday) there have been 2 selections for two places and a winner in my system.
Only one selection for it today:
Townsville R6 no. 2 - Gazzam.
P.S. - I don't have a pre-post market for Bunbury, but R8 no. 10 - Blondelle, would have been a selection in my system if the Telegraph had listed it in in the top three outright faves. But as I can't be certain, I'm not showing it as a selection.

[sportznut]

Well, Blondelle is $16.00 in the Courier Mail, certainly not in the first three.

[jacfin]

Michael
I examined a full week from this time last year. I used the tote final price to determine if in the first three favs.
It resulted in a loss of about $4 win and a profit of about $5 place.

[michaelg]

Hi, Sportznut. Even though pre-post prices may differ in the papers, I doubt a $16 horse in the Courier Mail would be in the top three favs in any newspaper.

Hi, Jacfin, I recall when originally looking at one of my selections (not posted on this forum) it was in the top 3 Telegraph outright faves, yet probably fith or sixth at the TAB. It placed, paying $3.10, in a field of nine. Maybe that was an exception. But it's good to know your testing of that week showed a profit, even small, on each-way betting.

[michaelv]

Michael, Looks as though the distance rule doesn't apply. What about MAIDENS or class 1's?

Also, it might be my imagination (as it does tend to run wild sometimes) but it appears that when there are 7 runners or less the 100 raters seems to either win or run 2nd in lots of them? Do you have any definitive figures for the 7's or less for the total period you've been following this?

2Wins(3.3)/3places(3.74) out of 3 today is OK even if the prices were a bit skinny but we ground out a profit nonetheless.

[michaelg]

Hi, Michaelv. I did have a look at Maidens. To date they have performed okay. Even today's sole Tabcorp selection was a maiden, and it won.

As for under eight runners - I really haven't paid any attention to these races because they have not fared too well in other systems. But from tomorrow I'll take note of them, and any of these selections will be so indentified on future postings.

[michaelv]

It just may not be worth it, Michael, as I decided to go back over the unitab ratings from Mar 6th till TODAY (11 days) and came up with the following stats:

Notes:
* I used the unitab divi (for ease of research).

* I also looked at ALL the 100 raters (regardless of prepost price - but it looked like most would've been the prepost fav or very close to it anyway with only a couple of exceptions).

* I recorded the 'gaps' as well (from 1 above).

* I ignored meetings that were slow or heavy.

* I ignored races of less than 5 runners as there's NO place pool

* I ignored races without a 100 rater in the field.

* I ignored races where there were 2 or more 100 raters listed.

ALL 'GAPS'
==========
Total Win Bets : 56
Total Wins : 23 (41%)
Total return on Win: 61.16 units (but included 1 winner at $11.10)

Total PLace Bets: 56
Total wins/2nds: 38 (67.9%) - no third divi
Total return on Place: 60.08 (but included $4.40 for the $11.10 winner above)

Gap of 1 & 2 only
=================
Total Win Bets : 20
Total Wins : 10 (50%)
Total return on Win: 35.3 units (but included 1 winner at $11.10)

Total PLace Bets: 20
Total wins/2nds: 16 (80%) - no third divi
Total return on Place: 29.30(but included $4.40 for the $11.10 winner above)

Gap of 3 plus
=============
Total Win Bets : 36
Total Wins : 13 (36.11%)
Total return on Win: 25.86 units

Total PLace Bets: 36
Total wins/2nds: 22 (61.11%) - no third divi
Total return on Place: 30.78

Based on this I don't think they are worth following as the only saviours were 1 $11.00 winner plus 2 other winners of $5.50 and $4.90 which leaves the rest as giving pretty poor returns. Note that ALL of these were in the 1&2 gap races so the other group missed out completely on the bigger divis.

I then looked at the horses with a placing at the last start and things got even worse with only 5 wins from 17 bets (returning 11.3 units) and 12 placings (which returned 16 units).

Hope this saves you a lot of 'non-worthwhile' extra work and I apologise for bringing it up in the first place.

[michaelg]

Hi, Michaelv.

I was going to suggest the selection had to be in the top 2 faves as there are only two place dividends, but I'm sure it would have missed the $11 winner. It seems the small fields can be somewhat inconsistent. Maybe we can devise some other filter or include a special rule for these races, especially that the Unitab 100 pointer selected the $11 winner?

There seems to be a lot of action - 56 races in 11 days. If you have kept a record of the races and have some spare time maybe you might find some consistency in them. Or alternatively, omit one (or more) of the existing rules?

And going on your figures, it would seem the smaller the gap the better the result. So from today, I'll keep a record privately of the one and two-gappers that would qualify in our normal system. I'll report on them sometime in the future.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: michaelg on 2004-03-17 09:15 ]</font>

[alblyn]

Hi Michaelg
last thursday i started writing on the race guide marking the 100pters, as well as the results, to try and find a common dominator.
from last thursday to tuesday (6 days).
there were 55 bets for 24 wins with a return of $76.23win & $60.70 place. I capped the pre bet price at $6.00. i don't know how this will pan out in the future, but so many bets for little return, but still ahead. Thursday was the only loosing day by .80cents. also there were 7 u7, for 3 wins returning $7.30win & $8.30place.

[michaelg]

Hi, Alblyn.

It's good to know that after 55 bets both win and place were in profit. The win bet profit was quite acceptable, and one losing day is amazing. As you say, we don't know if it will continue, but it seems promising. Capping the price at $6.00 - is that pre-post or TAB price just prior to the race? There is a selection today which I am about to post that is equal-second fav and showing $7.00 (N'cle R5 no. 6)in the Telegraph.

[alblyn]

hi michaelg,
my capping on the 100pters is pre-post using the courier mail.
today i had 9 selections,(including 2 u7) only one was the same as yours.

[michaelg]

Hi, Alblyn.

How did your selections fare? Could you list them?

From today I'm going to delete all Maiden races for the system as they have shown an overall profit of only $0.30. One more loss and it would put them into arrears.

[michaelv]

Michael, I'm assuming that $0.30 profit is based on Place bets, so do you have the figures for maidens based on Win bets?

[alblyn]

hi michaelg, not a good wednesday. 9 x 3 wins returning $8.40 & $5.80pl. willcannia, amtrak & its a grey. at present i look at all 100 whether they are u7 or doubles, and will work out at the end of the week (saturday)how to maybe delete some of the selections. tuesday fared better with 11 x 6 wins = $16.62 & 12.10pl, West country,gazzam,warrier rose,the challenger,jeubeauty and ifestic. i don't bet on them preferring to just wait and see.

[michaelg]

Hi, Michaelv.

There were 9 maiden races. The win bet returned $10.10 for a profit of $1.10. The place bet returned $8.20 for a loss of $0.80. For an overall profit of $0.30 with 9 races isn't really acceptable. And if the next selection in a Maiden race does not place it would then mean an overall loss. I've kept some records for TABLTD selections (6 points gap), and reviewing them, Maidens lost for both win and place betting. Some Maiden races have unraced horses, and others with only one or two race starts. Because of this, the ratings may not have enough information to make an accurate assessment?

Alblyn, how do your results fare with Maiden races omitted?

[michaelv]

Thanks for clarifying that Michael. I always thought, due to the reasons you mentioned, Maidens COULD be tricky and you might have just shown that. Time will tell.

Also, there don't seem to be any Unitab ratings for today's fields yet (at 11am - Sydney time) so maybe they're not going to come out today?

[sportznut]

Yeah, they certainly are a bit late today. That happens every now and then, but in my experience, they've always had them up before the first race.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-18 11:25 ]</font>

[alblyn]

its only since monday that i have kept a better record of things and noting maidens,
on monday i had
1 x 1w maiden $3.83 & $1.40
2 x 0 rest (both in the same race-double)
tuesday - 11 x 6w,
2 x 2w U7 $4.90 & $3.00
3 x 2w maidens $6.52 & $4.20
6 x 2w rest $5.20 & $4.90
wednesday - 9 x 3w
2 x 1w U7 $1.90 & $1.10
6 x 1w rest $2.20 & $2.80
1 x 1w triple $4.30 & $1.90
hope you can understand this, but now you have made me think about this a bit more