AFL Betting

[Benny]

I'm considering compliing my own results for this seasons afl matches, but I don't know how to go about it or what sort of results to keep.

Can someone please advise.

Benny

[sportznut]

I'd like to help, but can you tell me exactly what you mean? Are you simply wanting to compile Betting results, so that you can work out some sort of betting strategy?

If so, I would suggest that you record prices for head to head betting, margin betting and also starts and handicaps for line betting. By the way, do you use just one bookmaker or several? Perhaps you could use the results to compare prices.

Anyway, if you have any questions, feel free to ask. Did you read about my Football line-betting system on the 'Betting On Rugby' thread? It's picked 6 out of 6 on the Super 12 Rugby so far this year and in the past it's also done pretty well on AFL.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-16 15:57 ]</font>

[Benny]

I read your post on line betting in the rugby. It was most interesting.

Could you explain a little further with a couple of examples and how much one should bet.

Benny

[sportznut]

I wouldn't dare tell you how much to bet. That's completely up to you, but I would suggest small bets at first until you are comfortable with it. I must say that if you like a lot of bets it may not be for you. I think it averages out to only 1 or maybe 2 bets a week for AFL. It has done well for me in the past. Hopefully it will continue.

Okay, going over my system again: If the home team is given the start, I back them with that start, providing they do actually have a GENUINE home ground advantage.

Can I ask, are you a really big AFL fan? If so, you'll probably understand what I mean by a GENUINE home ground advantage in the AFL. If not, it's a bit tricky to explain, but I'll try.

I don't bet when two Melbourne teams are playing each other, because there are no genuine 'home grounds' in Melbourne any more except for Carlton's Optus Oval and even that is no longer a great advantage for Carlton. Some other games are played at 'neutral' venues like the Hawks in Tassie, the Kangaroos in Canberra and the Cats at Telstra Dome. It's up to you whether you want to back the 'home' team in these games or not, but they did actually return a profit last year.

Anyway, in all remaining matches, I back the home team when they are given the start. What I'm really looking for is when the home team plays against a team from interstate and are given a start. Last year the Brisbane Lions won the competition but they lost several games interstate when they were favourites and in a couple of others they actually won the match but failed to cover the start.

As an example, when the Lions played in Sydney, the Swans were given 20 1/2 points start. Not only did the Swans win with the start but they won outright. Usually as well as backing the home team on the line, I will also have a small bet on them head to head as well.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-17 10:13 ]</font>

[Benny]

Thanks for the recap.

Let me take this 1 step further. Say Essedon play West Coast at the MCG. And West Coast had a 7pt start I would back West Coast.

What do you think?

Benny

[sportznut]

Well, you can back them if you like but that's not actually part of my system. Remember, it's only the HOME team that I back with the start. In the example you gave of Essendon vs West Coast at the MCG, if Essendon had the 7 point start, I would back them. Otherwise I'd leave the game alone.

[Benny]

Now I understand? Thanks I'll let you know how I go during the season. One more thing I don't mind 1 or 2 bets as long as i make a profit in the long term.

Benny

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Benny on 2004-03-16 19:17 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Well, hopefully this system will do well this year. I must warn you though that it is no holy grail. To break even on line betting, you need to win about 53% of your bets. Well, in the last couple of years, this system has averaged 60-65% wins on AFL matches, so that's not a huge profit. I use it simply to supplement my own sports ratings which are still my main bets each week.

Anyway, as an example of how it works, I've had a quick look at Round 1 and I think there are a couple of matches that could be bets for the system. The Kangaroos are playing Adelaide at the MCG and may be given the start there. Also, the Western Bulldogs are playing West Coast at Telstra Dome and they will almost certainly have the start. Any more questions on AFL betting, please feel free to ask.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-17 09:33 ]</font>

[sportznut]

On 2004-03-16 14:51, Benny wrote:
I'm considering compiling my own results for this seasons afl matches, but I don't know how to go about it or what sort of results to keep. Can someone please advise. Benny



I'm currently going through the results for last season and I'll be back soon with some stats and a few ideas on what sort of results to look at.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-17 12:09 ]</font>