Handicap / Line betting stats 2003

[sportznut]

Okay, I've been going through all the betting results for 2003 and I thought I'd share some stats with you. This is how successful each team was in 2003 when it came to Handicap / Line Betting:

(Team Wins/Losses Win%)

AFL:
Collingwood - 16/8 - 66.7%
Hawthorn - 12/8 - 60%
Adelaide - 14/10 - 58.3%
Port Adel. - 14/10 - 58.3%
Sydney - 14/10 - 58.3%
Geelong - 11/8 - 57.9%
Essendon - 11/11 - 50%
Kangaroos - 10/11 - 47.6%
Fremantle - 9/10 - 47.3%
W.Bulldogs - 9/10 - 47.3%
Richmond - 9/11 - 45%
West Coast - 9/11 - 45%
St Kilda - 8/10 - 44.4%
Brisbane - 10/15 - 40%
Carlton - 8/13 - 38.1%
Melbourne - 6/15 - 28.6%

NRL:
Penrith - 16/6 - 72.7%
Canberra - 16/8 - 66.7%
Nth Qld - 14/7 - 66.7%
Melbourne - 14/11 - 56%
St Geo/Illawarra - 10/8 - 55.5%
Sydney - 13/11 - 54%
Bulldogs - 14/12 - 53.8%
Newcastle - 12/13 - 48%
Manly - 10/11 - 47.6%
Parramatta - 10/12 - 45.4%
W.Tigers - 10/12 - 45.4%
New Zealand - 11/15 - 42.3%
Souths - 9/14 - 39%
Brisbane - 8/16 - 33.3%
Sharks - 7/16 - 30.4%

Super12:
Chiefs - 8/3 - 72.7%
Bulls - 7/3 - 70%
Blues - 9/4 - 69.2%
Sharks - 6/4 - 60%
Hurricanes - 6/5 - 54.5%
Qld Reds - 5/5 - 50%
Crusaders - 6/7 - 46.1%
ACT Brumbies - 5/6 - 45.4%
Cats - 4/6 - 40%
Highlanders - 4/7 - 36.3%
NSW Waratahs - 3/7 - 30%
Stormers - 2/8 - 20%

By the way, I'm actually a Broncos and Lions fan, but I often bet against them because I feel that the Bookies tend to rate them too highly. Despite the fact that the Lions won the Premiership last year, I successfully bet against them many times. I was even more successful backing against the Broncos. When you look at the figures, you can see why.

By the way, I used TAB Sportsbet for the starts on all of the matches, but most Bookies' starts would be pretty much the same. Anyway, I hope you got some useful info out of all those figures. Some of them make for interesting reading.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-20 23:06 ]</font>

Geez sportznut you are a marvel, you should work for Smartgambler :grin:

[sportznut]

Thanks. :smile:

[jimmyc_dogs]

hey sportznut, do u gamble professionally??? is this your job,

very good indeed

[nevets]

how can we relate that to this season Sportz

[sportznut]

These stats are just an illustration that positions on the table don't necessarily equate with results as far as line betting is concerned. Line betting is all about the Bookie's opinion of how much better one team is than another, and these opinions often tend to be skewed towards certain teams.

What I suggest you do is look for teams which you think can improve this year. Anyone who had managed to pick out Canberra and Penrith in the NRL early last year would have done brilliantly. Likewise, you should look for teams which the Bookies tend to under-rate. Nth Qld fall into that category and they also did well on the line last year.

Alternatively, you can bet against teams that you think will drop off a bit this year, because Bookies will tend to rate them on past performance. Or you can simply bet against teams which you think the Bookies seem to rate too highly. As I said earlier, both of the Brisbane teams are consistently over-rated and I've done very well betting against them. When the Broncos started that horror run towards the end of last season I could tell there was something horribly wrong with the team. It was obvious their hearts just weren't in it and they were playing like wooden spooners. However, the Bookies kept on making them favourites purely on reputation, and I kept on betting against them game after game with success.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-21 13:53 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Well, the over-rated Broncos go down once again as short priced favs and once again I collected. I was amazed at the head to head price and the start that Parra were given, considering their previous good form against Brisbane in Brisbane.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-21 17:36 ]</font>

[nevets]

I went to Noosa and Coolum today so I didnt reinvest on the broncs so I kept my$4.76 profit I won on the doggies but in theory I lost .Its amatter of giving advice and not keepking to it I said I was going to pick one team and i picked 2 and it is still to early in the season ...and before last week I said I was going to take the points start for a few weeks and have some doubles without considering the form didnt do that either ...... Im not dedicated enough gotta get my head down and arse up and get a bit serious ....

[nevets]

And like ya said about broncs being overated they had a shocker last season and they still kept rating them and I think they always will have a midyear slump with Origin committments ...........

[nevets]

I think from memory the first time parra played Brisbane at ANZ (and Parra were doin it tough at the time )they gave Brisbane a pasting

[Mr J]

sportznut did you record those figures yourself?

does anyone know of a website that records the line for aussie footy codes?

[sportznut]

Yes, I did record them myself, but with TAB Sportsbet, you can actually check out the starts in past matches in their results section. It takes a lot of 'clicking' to go through them all though.

http://www.tab.com.au/sportsbet/index.asp

No, I don't know if any other Australian bookies do that.

[Mr J]

thanks for the site, might give some good angles to play. Wish it went back further than 2003 though.

[sportznut]

This site gives exactly the same results and it goes back to 2002.

http://www.tabonline.com.au/default.stm

Simply click on 'Sports', then click on 'Sportsbet' and you'll see a 'Results and Search' section. It's easier to use than the other site, but unfortunately, it's a bit unreliable. A few of the results may be missing.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-24 20:07 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Mr. J,

If you don't mind me asking, are you American? You use a fair bit of American betting lingo. Anyway, you seem to be doing well with the Rugby Union. Do you want any advice on betting on Rugby League or Aussie Rules as well???

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-24 20:16 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Something is definately wrong with the first site. The dates and results don't match up at all.

E.g. in week 3 (march 8, 2003), NSW beat the sharks 49-36. The spread listed was NSW -18.5, listed as a winner yet the margin was only 13?

The 2nd website seems have the right dates although it doesn't list all of the spreads, still much better though.

[Mr J]

Na I'm just as aussie as anyone here, I just have alot more experience betting american sports.

Would be interesting in betting league, longer season more games and props. Do you think league is much harder to beat than union? Haven't really watched much league since I started getting into union (bout 8 years ago). I guess super league sort of killed it for me.

[sportznut]

Yes, I've had another look and I'd say DEFINITELY use the 2nd site. The other one only seems to give results for the previous 365 days, so that's no good. By the way, I think you may have typed in the wrong dates when you used it, because you were actually looking at this year's Super12 results. That Waratahs/Sharks game with the 18.5 start was this year's game, not last year's. No wonder you were confused!

By the way, you said that sometimes the 2nd site didn't list the 'spreads' on some matches. In most cases, that's because TAB Sportsbet didn't have any 'line' betting on those games. In the results, such games are listed as 'pts' or 'N/A'.

TAB Sportsbet put their line betting for AFL, NRL and S12 out on Wednesday afternoons. If you're interested, this week's S12 games are:
Hurricanes (+6.5) VS Blues (-6.5)
Chiefs (+4.5) VS Waratahs (-4.5)
Crusaders (-10.5) VS Highlanders (+10.5)
Stormers (+3.5) VS Bulls (-3.5)
Brumbies (-10.5) VS Reds (+10.5)
What are your thoughts on those?

You could certainly bet on League, but you seem to be doing okay on Union, so perhaps you could stick to that for now. Yes, I do think Super12 is possibly a bit easier because of the home ground advantages. I guess my line betting system seems to work best on Super12 for that very reason.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-26 14:02 ]</font>

[Desi]

The Chiefs game might be a good bet...Rogers is out for the Warratahs and it might be a good home game for the Chiefs, who are playing strong, but very safe rugby. Warratahs needed Rogers confident attacking approach to unlock the Chiefs defence...

[sportznut]

Well, I hope you're right, because that's actually a bet for my line betting system this week.

[Mr J]

Yep losing rogers definately affects their ability to score.

I'm with you sportsnutz, home dogs...

So far I've only looked at the hurricanes blues game in detail - the hurricanes a bet for me.

Chiefs +4.5 is interesting, this is the third road game for NSW. This probally will be a close one so +4.5 is looking good. Good enough for me to look into. I'd look at the chiefs results from last weekend. Unimpressive at home but we'll see.

Note I'm only just forming an acutal system and have only done 2 teams.

Stormers +3.5, another home dog. Not crash hot on this one although I'll look at it again when I've done these 2 teams.

Brumbies -10.5 gives me a good feeling, although I'd wait until I've checked my numbers.

Crusaders vs Highlanders. Crusaders effort last week coupled with the highlanders with a small win over the cats does not make me feel confident backing the highlanders.
-10.5 does feel a bit high though. I might get confidence after doing the numbers :wink:

Like I said I haven't done most of the teams for my systems yet but they're my general thoughts.

[Mr J]

So far hurricanes +7 for me.

Chiefs vs NSW
NSW is 4-0 in H2H. That includes 2-0 in NZ.
The chiefs have won just 2/5 home games vs aussie teams since '00 (both wins were vs the reds). Although rogers is out there is still plenty of talent in the NSW team.

Don't wanna go against a home dog but I am leaning towards NSW here.

[kiwi@nz]

Great rugby disscussion,I will be at the Hurricanes game tonight,but find it hard to support the Canes at this stage.
I have the Blues winning this one 31-26 but if your taking the line there is some value in the Hurricanes at +7
I also have the Blues with an edge in forward strength.
Does anyone have the dividends from previous years they could share with me.It would be appreciated greatly.
Keep this Rugby thread pumping and yes there is some good value to be found betting on Rugby because there is very few meaningful stats availiable to the public.

[sportznut]

What do you actually mean by the dividends? If you mean head to head prices for Super12 matches, unfortunately I've lost that info. Sorry about that.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-26 10:16 ]</font>

[kiwi@nz]

I was thinking of the 'Line'prices
I have most of last seasons but don't have any more from previous seasons

[sportznut]

Well, I have all the 'starts' for 2003 and almost all for 2002. Unfortunately, I'm missing a few games. I have all the winners, scores and margins for 2002/2003.

[Desi]

Jeez Kiwi, the Hurricanes played a shocker last week, like a ship without a captain or game plan. They should have won and the first five should have been shot as well as a few of those ill disciplined forwards...but as always the game today will depend on which Hurricanes team turns up and I would not bet on this game cos the Blues may also turn up and blow them away...they are a sleeping giant the Blues but they will need to cut their error rate, be more aggressive in the forwards and change their backline attack lines and patterns (every other team esp Aussie teams) have changed their defensive lines after watching the Blues and ABs last year...hence the lack of penetration from the Blues much vaunted backline...also note the lack of focus which I would not be surprised has a lot to do with the absence of Fitzpatrick (he is a big loss for them)! Go the Chiefs, Queensland, Dockers and the Bulldogs! Good Luck and Good Punting!

[sportznut]

With the Blues, they depend so much on King Carlos and at the moment he's not there. Caucaunibuca and co just aren't quite the same when he's missing.

Actually, I was reading a Super12 report on a NZ website and it said that a semi final spot is 'pretty much mission impossible' for the Blues. I don't know about that. I think they still have a chance of making it, but a win today is pretty vital.

Hey Desi, you've got quite a few teams to support this weekend! :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-26 11:52 ]</font>

[Mr J]

That's true, blues will have motivation to win today.

Thank god we only have 1 game today.

[Desi]

Reckon Ive got a chance with 2 of them Sports...we shall see...

[sportznut]

Mr J,

Well done with the tip for the Hurricanes on the line! :smile:

I think that draw may really hurt the Blues chances now, especially as they didn't get the 4 tries.

[Mr J]

Yeh I thought I was gonna get the draw, at 19-26. My model actually predicted a score of 25-25 as well, so that gives me a bit of confidence. Have to do some tests to see whether my scoreline was luck or a decent estimate.

I think the Blues are still okay. Lost at home and are 1-3 away. There'll be alot of pressure to hold all home games. You're right though, they're not a good chance. Blues will have to defend against NSW, highlanders, the bulls and the stormers. Not only that but they'll need to win one more away game against either the sharks or the cats (cats their best bet).

I think the result hurts the hurricanes more. They'll need to pull off at least 2 away wins against NSW, Highlanders, or the ACT (highlanders being their best bet). They'll have to defend at home against the crusaders (who are coming into some form) and the reds.

Both sides really had to win to remain a decent chance.

Think it's time to start a new thread...

[Desi]

Good call Mr J, not sure if the Blues even with Carlos back can do it...yes, the Hurricanes are going to have to do it hard but there were signs of grit and hopefully Tana can provide a cooler head. There is definitely the manpower and Sooaialo provided some steel in the forwards. The Hurricanes would be a good team with a decent first five and stronger front row. They depend on their backs to run too much...Nonu will be burnt out by the end of the season. Hey, how's my Bulldogs eh...tears in the beers...better team (Premiers?) won last night! C'mon the Chiefs to bring me some money LOL!

[sportznut]

Well, I backed the Roosters at $4.50 pre-season. I reckon that's looking okay now.
I also got $1.60 about them finishing in the Top 4 which I think was pretty good.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-27 13:28 ]</font>

[Chenille Prince]

Good on you sportznut :wink:

[Desi]

Chiefs and Dockers wins made up for a poor Bulldogs result (mind you, a lot of it had to do with the great league that the Roosters were playing- must be favourites to win). Chiefs played no frills rugby and kept their solid defense going most of the game but they had a lot of help from the error ridden Warratahs- no doubt looking forward to a home game and a couple of days rest...love to see Queensland win at ACT but the Brumbies will want to stamp their authority on the Reds and send a clear message to the competition...their odds must have shortened heaps...might be a good time to sort out a dark horse after tomorrow's game...mmm!!!

[sportznut]

Well, I reckon the Brumbies, Crusaders and Sharks are all looking okay for semi final spots but who knows? There's only really one team that has no chance at all at this stage. Peronally, I would like to see the Reds get there, but I don't think that'll happen. I think the Brumbies should win today.

Your Dockers were good, but then again, I don't think Carlton were top quality opposition. My team, the Lions got up in a close one. I actually backed the Swans with 23.5 pts start and that was never really in doubt. I think St Kilda are a great top 8 chance after their performance, and with an incredibly favourable draw, the Hawks are also looking good for the 8.

The Roosters were terrific on Friday night and are certainly favourites for the title, but I still expect the Bulldogs to be thereabouts come September. That's if they haven't been kicked out of the competition by then!!! :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-28 07:02 ]</font>

[Desi]

Sports, haven't seen the remaining draw for S12 cos if any outside team is to have a chance they need to have a lot of home games and some of the lower teams as opposition. Teams who have strong attacking (and decent defensive) stats will be the go cos bonus points will be extremely impt in the second half of the comp...anyone come to mind Sports?

Not sure what the Roosters are on but their speed and strength in everything they do is incredible! And Wing has been out with injury...

Panthers have all the stats in their favour today (finished well last week) and it will be a hard one for the Warriors especially the way Jones has been playing and the loss of Tony Martin thru injury...they have shifted Faumiuina to centre after Toopi's disinterest in the first couple of games and I think the props will have to do their work or they might be on the end of a big score loss...Seuseu is back but not starting...defence has been weakened with Betham out with injury...but you can never tell with the Warriors...if Jones is given the freedom to attack (thats where Ropati has to step up) then things could be different...it will be a high scoring game, I reckon, but not sure what the outcome will be. Might be one to bet re line...

[sportznut]

Desi,

Here's the draw for all teams for the 2nd half of the comp:

Blu vs War(H), Bul(H), Sto(H), Cat(A), Sha(A), Hig(H)
Bru vs Cru(A), Hig(H), BYE, War(A), Hur(H), Chi(A)
Bul vs BYE, Blu(A), Red(A), Cru(A), Chi(A), Cat(H)
Cat vs Sha(A), Chi(H), Cru(H), Blu(H), Red(H), Bul(A)
Chi vs Hig(A), Cat(A), Sha(A), Sto(H), Bul(H), Bru(H)
Cru vs Bru(H), Sha(A), Cat(A), Bul(H), Sto(H), Hur(A)
Hig vs Chi(H), Bru(A), BYE, Hur(H), War(A), Blu(A)
Hur vsRed(H), BYE, War(A), Hig(A), Bru(A), Cru(H)
Red vs Hur(A), Sto(H), Bul(H), Sha(A), Cat(A), War(H)
Sha vs Cat(H), Cru(H), Chi(H), Red(H), Blu(H), Sto(H)
Sto vs BYE, Red(A), Blu(A), Chi(A), Cru(A), Sha(A)
War vs Blu(A), BYE, Hur(H), Bru(H), Hig(H), Red(A)

The Sharks have a great run with 6 straight games at home and really should get enough wins to make the semis, barring an incredible loss of form. I also favour the Brumbies to be in there, especially if they beat the Reds today. The Crusaders are finding form and I think they also have a good chance. The Blues draw isn't too bad and there's still some chance they could make it but I think they might need a few results to go their way.

[Chenille Prince]

I'm still having trouble analysing both the Stormers & Bulls - a bit inconsistent to-date but on their day both can play top notch rugby.

[sportznut]

Well, despite the fact that they are up near the top of the table I don't really think either will make the semis. The Stormers have a bye followed by 5 away games and the Bulls have a bye followed by 4 games out of five away.

You're right, they both can play very well on their day, but they're only near the top because they've played almost all home games so far.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-28 15:49 ]</font>

[sportznut]

I've had another good weekend with my line betting system: 1 from 1 in S12, 2 from 2 in AFL and 1 from 2 in NRL. (the NRL win was only a small bet however)

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-28 17:59 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Well good onu sportznut & thanks for sharing your good fortune :wink:

[sportznut]

Paddy,

I'm certainly not bragging, because I know my luck could run out any time. :smile:

And I did outline the system rules on the 'Betting On Rugby' thread, so anyone could have backed them.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-28 19:08 ]</font>

Have to disagree with Chenille Prince on another thread -
You ARE a tad paranoid sportznut ! :lol:


Also notice you like to have the last say - bit like my better half :lol: :lol:

God bless you anyway! :smile:

[sportznut]

Sorry about that!

It's just that I used to be on another forum where one person always replied to me in a nasty, cynical, sarcastic way. So I guess I'm just worried that maybe that's going to happen on here too. Anyway, I'll try to stop thinking about it from now on.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-29 08:24 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Like I said guys, bet on the stormers :wink:

[Desi]

Sportsnut, no worries...your input and information has been great...how's those Brumbies eh? Not sure I can take too much from the Chiefs game cos the Warratahs played their own part in losing...

Stormers you reckon Mr J? I will have to wait till next week because all the pretenders will have to show their cards or bow out...Brumbies and Sharks are favourites to make it, with the Brumbies looking a good bet for the title but we shall see who finishes strongly at the business end...

Go the Dockers! LOL!

[Mr J]

I've gone through each teams position on another website, I'll copy and paste here, basically lists chances of a top 4 spot and the scenarios to make it.

I meant the stormers vs the bulls, which had already been played when I posted. Lower scoring game than I expected but another win and another victorious home dog.

Last weekend 2/3 home dogs coming through, one just covering in the final minutes, and another losing it on the last play, 1-2 mins into overtime. Crusaders 10 points in 2 mins, including a 50m penalty goal.

[sportznut]

On 2004-03-28 17:45, sportznut wrote:
I've had another good weekend with my line betting system: 1 from 1 in S12, 2 from 2 in AFL and 1 from 2 in NRL.

The one bet that I lost was the Broncos getting up by 8 and beating the start of 6.5 pts. Well, guess what? They've actually just been stripped of their competition points because they had an extra man on the field scoring one of the tries.

[Desi]

How's those Broncos eh? Someone should be shot for that? When is Wayne Bennett going to move Lockyer back to fullback?

[Mr J]

wow sportz, and I thought I was hard done by (in the crusaders-highlanders spread & chiefs-nsw total). It'd be fair not to count it in your record, the problem is you bet on it though.