What Chance Essendon?

[stacky69]

At 12/1 Essendon to win the AFL premiership is pretty good value, what are the thoughts of others on the forum?

[sportznut]

Where are they 12/1? That's not a bad price I guess, but personally I think you should wait until after Round 1. If they get beaten by Port this week (quite likely) their price will go out to 14/1 or something. I know that a lot of the 'experts' from down south are tipping Essendon to do really well this year, but I'm not quite so sure. I do think this is one of the most open seasons I can remember though, so if you like Essendon, by all means back them.

Personally, I'm a Brisbane Lions fan and I'm not at all confident that they can make it 4 in a row.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-23 11:58 ]</font>

[goldmember]

Couldn't win if they started now, only 4 chances this year, BRISBANE, ADELAIDE, WEST COAST and PORT ADELAIDE. The best value, ST KILDA . EDDIEWOOD to choke earlier this year as well as ESSENDOOMED.

[stacky69]

Yes, l admit it is hard to back against the Lions and even Port for that matter, but for value's sake Essendon appear strong and dare l say it...Hawthorn??? Goldmember, you are obviously a big AFL fan that doesn't follow Collingwood or Essendon, hate to say it but are your emotions making your mind up for you?

[sportznut]

Stacky69,

If they're 12/1 to win, what are they to make the 8? Perhaps you could wait until next week and then back them to finish in the 8. They'd probably be good value.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-24 16:08 ]</font>

[goldmember]

yes stacky, i'm a big rugby league and afl follower, no emotions here friend, iv'e been a collingwood fan since the 80's [still am]but more interest in brisbane in the last couple. as for essendon i can't catch them, there an emigma.

[Desi]

The dreaded Eagles are quietly confident over here and I hate to say it (am a Dockers fan) they may have good reason...full strength playing squad...they looked focussed (saw them training at Subi) rather than just arrogant...Dockers will still be hard to beat over here and may win just enough games over here to slip in to the 8 (well, here's hoping anyway)...as for Essendon...maybe...

[sportznut]

Desi, I'm hoping too because I've actually backed both WA teams to make the 8 this year. I also backed St Kilda for the finals as well. I think that West Coast and Freo will win almost all of their home games and snag enough away wins to get in. As for St Kilda, I think they are a really improving side and I reckon they can make it this year. I'm going to wait until after Round 1 to see what happens to to the final 8 price of a few other teams, particularly Essendon. I may back them as well.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-25 18:00 ]</font>

[goldmember]

I didn't think EDDIEWOOD and ESSENDOOMED Would choke this early , but they were absolutely outclassed in every department. I backed colling wood , they had a very stong team, NEVER, EVER again and essendon, well i said it before and i'll say it again there an enigma.
cheers

[Desi]

Might be worth a bet you reckon (Essendon) for the 8 etc...what are they paying now?

Sports, should have put a couple on St K before last weekend's game mate...

Was that a one hit wonder from the Roos or do they have credentials this year...don't know too much about this year's squad...

[sportznut]

Desi,

I backed the Saints for the final 8 back in early February and I got $1.80 about them. They are now into $1.38. I backed the two WA teams about a fortnight ago. The West Coast have come in from $1.57 to $1.45 and Fremantle have come in from $1.85 to $1.60.

Here are the latest odds on TAB Sportsbet for the 8:
BRISBANE $1.07
PORT ADELAIDE $1.15
ST KILDA $1.38
HAWTHORN $1.40
COLLINGWOOD $1.45
ESSENDON $1.45
WEST COAST $1.45
FREMANTLE $1.60
SYDNEY $1.70
ADELAIDE $1.85
RICHMOND $1.90
KANGAROOS $2.65
GEELONG $3.50
MELBOURNE $3.50
WESTERN BULLDOGS $4.25
CARLTON $4.50

I'm not sure about backing another team now. I may leave it for another week or two. Despite what happened on Sunday, Essendon can still definitely make the 8, but they face another tough game against St Kilda this week. Hawthorn plays the Kangaroos. Hawthorn's draw is so good this year that I think they are in excellent shape to make the finals and $1.40 is good value if you think they can beat the Kangaroos. The Kangaroos are always under-rated by everyone and I think they will do quite well again this year, but I don't know if they are quite good enough to make the finals. I actually think Sydney might be good value. That $1.70 could be a bit over the odds.

I've worked my predictions out this way. I reckon there are ten main chances to make the 8 this year; the 6 non-Victorian teams plus St Kilda, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn. I reckon probably 1 of the interstate teams will miss out and probably 1 of those 4 Melbourne teams. It's a matter of deciding which ones!

By the way, I've just shown TAB Sportsbet's odds because that's where I backed my teams. I'm sure that if you shop around, you can probably find better value on some of the teams with other bookies.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-30 08:44 ]</font>

[Desi]

Sports, Thanks for the info...agree with Sydney being over the odds and might put some on...might take a punt on the Roos before the weekend too. Always found Hawthorn difficult to back (seem to rely on their other stars a lot) they were inconsistent last year but will keep an eye on. I have never bet on the AFL but could see some value bets throughout the season. Cheers!

[Desi]

Apologies...have been involved in the footy tipping comps and did well but never backed anyone at the TAB...

[Desi]

Sports, what do you reckon about the Bombers vs St Kilda...will the return of 7 of their starting team be enough to upset the young turks (who are looking good) at Saints?

[sportznut]

It's definitely a stronger Essendon team this week and they are not without a chance. Personally, I favour the Saints, but I don't think it's anywhere near as clear cut as form would make you believe. If you go on form, the Saints simply MUST win, but you should always take into account the 'Bounce Back Factor'. I've seen it so many times before. When a team is soundly beaten one week and criticised heavily for it, they often tend to come out far more determined and fired up the next week, especially if they go from playing away to playing at home.

Look what happened last night. On last week's form, Richmond simply HAD to win, but Football doesn't work that way. After a poor performance the week before, I thought the Demons would probably come out firing last night and they did.

Essendon were awful last week, but they WERE playing Port Adelaide IN Adelaide and I had always thought Port would win that comfortably anyway. Essendon are a far more successful team when Dustin Fletcher is playing and if Hird and Lloyd can get plenty of the ball, they have a good chance. I really think the Saints are a strong team this year, but Grant Thomas will have to keep a lid on things and not let all those young guys get too excited.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-04-03 08:00 ]</font>

[Paddy]

The $1.85 with 10.5 start will do me. Go the Bombers!!

[sportznut]

Bad luck Paddy. The Bombers put in a much better effort than the previous week, but this IS a pretty good St Kilda team.

[Desi]

Sports, You were right about the Saints...early days yet but they will only get better and gain more confidence...Sheedy has been around the trenches for awhile and will know what to do to get the Bombers firing again...

How's those Eagles eh? First time I have ever picked them in a footy tipping comp cos am a Dockers fan and the buggers lose!!!LOL!!! Not surprising!

[sportznut]

So you're the bugger that did it? :grin:

Yeah, they would have won if they hadn't hit the post 3 times in the last quarter from no more than 20m out. That must have been the Desi Curse! :lol:

[Paddy]

Yeh, a strong performance by St Kilda :sad:

[Desi]

Will stay away from the Eagles from hereonin! Go the Dockers...we know how to win at home (at least/ fingers crossed) LOL!

[Paddy]

The $1.85 with 7.5 start will do me. Go the Bombers! pluck those eagles!!

[Paddy]

With Matthew Lloyd's two-match suspension overturned - feelin good!!

[Desi]

Like the Bombers chances but I always stay away from the Eagles games cos will never back them anyway LOL!

[Paddy]

Anyone tipping the Doggies over the Demons. Thought I might take them with the start.

[goldmember]

correct me if i'm wrong, but i would think the eagles would have a better away record than the dockers wouldn't they? have you any stats on that , im only going off memory at the moment.

[Desi]

Haven't got the stats in front of me Goldmember but afraid to say that I am fairly certain that in spite of Freos recent improvement in away games...eagles have better away figures..that hurt mate (ha! ha!)

[Paddy]

Not over yet, but looking good :smile:

[Paddy]

Half time, getting a wee bit concerned!

[sportznut]

Paddy,

I'd like to thank you for posting the info on Lloyd's appeal nice and early the other day. I was able to jump in and back them on the line before the odds got crunched too much! :smile:

[Paddy]

What a game!! Where's the oxygen mask :grin:

[sportznut]

Personally, I think a draw would have been good! :smile:

[Paddy]

On 2004-04-10 22:11, sportznut wrote:
Personally, I think a draw would have been good! :smile:


:razz:

[sportznut]

:grin:

Well, there's no doubt the difference was Hird and Lloyd. As soon as Lloyd won that appeal and was back in the team, the +7.5 certainly looked a good bet. The West Coast obviously played well though. Must have been a great game to watch.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-04-10 22:43 ]</font>

[Chenille Prince]

Good luck to you Paddy.

[Paddy]

On 2004-04-08 15:40, Paddy wrote:
Anyone tipping the Doggies over the Demons. Thought I might take them with the start.



How sweet it is :grin: HIC!

[Paddy]

:grin:

[Paddy]

On 2004-04-08 14:26, Desi wrote:
Like the Bombers chances but I always stay away from the Eagles games cos will never back them anyway LOL!



Did you clean up this week Desi?

[sportznut]

I'm not an Essendon supporter, but I was cheering for them yesterday. Just like many other people, I actually support two teams.... my own team and whoever's playing Collingwood! :grin:

[sportznut]

I still can't believe I got $1.80 about St Kilda making the finals this year. I thought they were almost certainties. I'm really impressed with the way they're playing. This week will be good, but if my mob Brisbane don't improve their kicking for goal, they could get smashed!

[Desi]

Paddy,
Unfortunately, was conservative in my betting with Freo but the Eagles loss certainly made up for any reduced profit returns...LOL!

Sports, my footy picking this year has been abysmal...have been waiting for the wheels to fall off the Saints incredible run but they are getting better and must be certainties for the finals. Collingwood's wheels have definitely come away... Is Melbourne's recent change in fortunes temporary?

[sportznut]

I don't know. It's an even numbered year which usually means Melbourne does okay. (why they can't do any good in an odd numbered year has me stumped) I'm still not sure about them making the finals though. They rely so much on Neitz. If he gets injured or loses form, they have little or no chance.

As for Collingwood, perhaps losing two GFs in a row has got to them a bit. I expect them to lose this week to Port which will leave them 1 & 5, but if Buckley comes back soon, I still think they have a chance of perhaps sneaking into the finals.

This far out, I think you can pencil the following teams in for the finals:
St Kilda
Brisbane
Port Adelaide
Then, there are 3 more teams which I feel are very likely to make it:
Fremantle
Sydney
Essendon

That leaves the rest battling for 2 spots. At this stage, I'm a bit worried about my Final 8 bet on the Eagles. With Gardiner out for the season, I think they might struggle a bit now. A vital game this week against the Dockers. Bet you're getting excited about that one already Desi! :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-04-26 13:36 ]</font>

[Desi]

Sports,
Can't wait!!! But never go to the game cos I cant stand the Eagles fans...usually means that there will be no-one at the outdoor cafes, tanning lounges and suede and leather shops cos they're at the match LOL!

Dockers have grown strong in confidence and experience and have an excellent coaching and support team...maybe just a few more talls and class players and they will be a dominant team but the club has been patient and done its homework...just to beat the Eagles once in a season used to be all that mattered but they have their problems just like us and hopefully they can regroup and carry the WA footie flag as well!