Rugby S12 week 6

[Mr J]

Good we got a rugby thread started. Found some of it quite useful and I liked hearing opions about the games.

[sportznut]

Can I ask, just how you go about rating the teams? I assume you use a spreadsheet or something where you factor in certain things relating to each team and the computer comes up with a score. Predicting a draw was pretty amazing. Was that a bit of a one off???

[Mr J]

A few hours each day over the last few days I've been putting stats together. Starting working on score prediction today.

Basically I'm combining h2h, scorelines and travelling etc to try to come up with the right balance. I'll test it against a dozen or so results and see what comes up.

btw, last time I ran the hurricanes-blues through it came up with 25-27

[Mr J]

Done a few tests (only done half the teams):

Chiefs vs Highlanders:
Mine: 30-24,
Real: 19-7,
Spread was Chiefs +4.5.

Crusaders vs Blues:
Mine: 28-25,
Real: 29-38,
Spread was Crusaders -2.5.

Crusaders vs NSW:
Mine: 31-23,
Real: 19-42,
Spread was Crusaders -8.5.

Blues vs Chiefs:
Mine: 29-23,
Real: 20-27,
Spread was Blues -18.5.

Hurricanes vs Blues:
Mine: 25-26,
Real: 26-26,
Spread was Hurricanes +7.

If I had bet these I'd be 4-1, although you probally wouldn't bet NSW +8.5 if you thought the line should be 8. Only a small sample so I'll see how it does against another 5-10 games.

[Desi]

Sportsnut, you were right about the Blues being rudderless and missing Carlos...a decent first 5 would have led the Blues away from trouble and a solid win...but Aii and the league bloke wanted to give the Hurricanes the game...thought the Hurricanes deserved the win...never gave in.

[Mr J]

Did you see the number of turnovers by the canes? They'd march up field quite a few times, only to turn the ball over. The blues would then counter attack every time. This led to 2 of the blues tries. It was a good game to watch though, not great rugby but exciting.

I've fine tuned my model, and it's gone 9-1 betting spreads for 10 previous games this season. 3 of those wouldn't really be a bet as a number of my scores matched the spread (e.g. if you suggest 29-26, you wouldn't bet -2.5 even though you'd win. you beat the spread but it's still a bad bet.)

Course I don't expect it to win most of the time, but I do hope and think it'll be profitable.

Scores it has pumped out for this weekend:

Chiefs vs NSW:
28-31. Spread is right for me.

Crusaders vs Highlanders:
31-24. I'm taking +12 on the highlanders.

Brumbies vs Reds:
35-22. With -8 available on the brumbies, another bet for me.

Chiefs-NSW game is on TV in 1 hour.

Still have to do the stormers-bulls (haven't done the bulls yet). I expect it'll probally be a fairly close one. I like the +4.5 for the stormers, I'll see if my spreadsheet agrees with me.

[Mr J]

I like Brumbies-Reds to go over 50.5. I think it'll be a case of brumbies putting on the points and the reds trying to keep up.

Also like the chiefs-nsw to go over 50. I feel my total might be a bit high, my model doesn't take into account injuries and their impact on score (i.e. matty rogers). That said NSW have plenty of weapons so who knows.

[Mr J]

I think chiefs-nsw should've gone over 50. 17-32. Thanks to the chiefs missed conversion and refusal to take the penalty goal on the last play. Should've gone over anyway, very sloppy first 60 mins.

[sportznut]

Well, the Chiefs win makes it 8/1 this year for my line betting system in S12. Good on you Chiefs!!! Personally, I thought it was the bet of the week, especially as NSW were without Rogers and were playing their 3rd straight game on the road. :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-27 18:30 ]</font>

[Mr J]

I've reset my own record as 1-0 (fair, since I'm using a system now, and not just off my own thoughts).

It's 1-1 on totals now (should be 2-0 grr).

NSW didn't lose because they didn't have rogers, they lost because they didn't do the basics well, like catching the ball :wink: I think in future I need to factor in the home dog trend. If my system says NSW -3, but the chiefs are a home dog maybe I need to add X amount of points to the chiefs. The chiefs were totally dominant though.

[sportznut]

On 2004-03-27 18:44, Mr J wrote:
NSW didn't lose because they didn't have rogers, they lost because they didn't do the basics well, like catching the ball


Yeah, and when a team has a game like that, more often than not it's away from home. I guarantee that if those same two teams were up against each other in Sydney next week, the Waratahs would probably win just as easily as the Chiefs did today. I'm not sure exactly why home ground advantage should be so hugely important, but it definitely is! In fact, these days I hardly ever back a team away from home unless I think they are EXTREMELY good value.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-27 19:12 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Well I think it's obvious why home advantage is important in S12s :wink:

I think motivation, home support and being familiar with surroundings, maybe more relaxed etc all have something to do with it.

I'm gonna try to adapt my model to NRL and Super League.

[Mr J]

Got cheated again. Had highlanders +12, score was 29-36 with 5 mins to go. A 50m penalty goal takes it to 29-39 with 1 min to go. Siren goes, highlanders have the ball. A minute later crusaders cross the line and beat my spread, I feel raped :wink:

It's funny how often there's a score off the last play or few in Super 12s.

[sportznut]

Mr J,

Yeah, it's funny how that sort of thing happens. Anyway, bad luck with your bet, but personally I wouldn't have backed against the Crusaders at home today.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-27 21:54 ]</font>

[Chenille Prince]

Me neither :wink:

[Mr J]

It was a good game. Both sides playing very well. Crusaders really coming into form. They weren't 17 points better though. Well you win some, lose some.

System has gone well so far, 4-2 this weekend, although I didn't bet one of those wins (chiefs covered, but you wouldn't take +3.5 or +4 at 1.90 if you thought the spread should be 3).

Picked the right spread 11/13 times, and you would've bet 9 of those to go 7-2.

Picked the right total 8/13 times, and would've bet 10 of those to go 6-4.

Also have Stormers +4.5 and the over 46.5.
Brumbies -8 and the over 50.

[Mr J]

I really need to find out what each point is worth in terms of price.

[kiwi@nz]

Notice MrJ that the Highlanders are showing a failure to concentrate in the last 10 minutes of there last 3 games .Can be horrible if your betting the line and taking the Highlanders,intiallaly I thought this was a one off event but its proving to be an inherant problem.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kiwi@nz on 2004-03-28 08:47 ]</font>

[kiwi@nz]

Whats everyones general thoughts on the Brumbies v Reds game,does anyone know what the weather will be doing ?

[goldmember]

how many points do you think thr reds will score? 15, 18 or more

[sportznut]

Depends on whether they can get the ball to Latham and Sailor often enough. Personally, I think Giteau and Mortlock will star and the Brumbies will probably win easily, but I don't think I'll be betting.

[Paddy]

Everything is against the Reds - no Elton Flatley, never won in Canberra & have beaten the Brumbies just once in the Super 12 comp. Having said that, very rarely a blowout score between the two. 30-6 being the highest (I think)

Perhaps Brumbies (1-12) at $3.10 may be the way to go.

_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2004-03-28 10:47 ]</font>

[goldmember]

There's a mythical match between the reds and warriors . most points scored.

[Desi]

Would love the Reds to win, Kiwi, but can't see it happening and expect Brumbies to get a roll on and win comfortably...the games are usually close but it will depend on the quality of ball Queensland backs get and the decision making from the halves...Gregan, Smith and Larkham have been playing at their best so Reds will need a good game plan and a bit of passion...

[sportznut]

If somebody can somehow convince the Reds players that they are actually playing NSW today instead of the ACT, they'll win! :smile:

[Paddy]

Brumbies very impressive!

[Mr J]

Yes paddy. Don't think anyone expected them to win by that margin.

[Mr J]

Well guys, went 7-3 on the weekend.

Very close to 9-1, with the crusaders only covering 1-2 mins overtime on the last play. Highlanders had the ball when the siren went I thought I was safe, but no :wink:

The other one was Chiefs vs NSW, should've been been over 50 but both sides (esp nsw) just made too many mistakes. Final total was 49, with only 15 of those coming in the first half.

Overall my system has gone 13-2 against the spread, and 9-6 on totals.

Just have to see how well it goes for the remainder of the season.

[Desi]

Still, pretty impressive figures Mr J...next week will be interesting and an important week for those teams wanting to press their late claims...

[Mr J]

I agree. I think 3/4 spots will be filled by the ACT, Sharks and Crusaders. The other spot is basically up for grabs between most of the remaining teams. Pretty much anyone can make the top 4 right now.

[Desi]

Mr J,
Thanks for the breakdown and review posted in other topic forum...I reckon that I will have to decide before this weekend who I think will fill the 3rd? and 4th spots cos the prices will definitely drop by Monday!

Personally, the Highlanders v Chiefs and Blues v Warratahs will be important games for possibly clarifying who might be the dark horse.

Not sure that the Crusaders have it altogether to beat a very strong and cohesive unit like the Brumbies (all their stars are on fire at present) but is definitely the game that Canterbury have to win if they have any true chance of staking a claim! The Crusaders were not that convincing last weekend against an indifferent H'landers (who seem to lack direction- fly halves not quite gelling) but they are looking on the improve and if all their main players lift their game- its going to be a hell of a match!

I am picking the Chiefs to win or come close at the House of Pain. Their forwards have improved in leaps and bounds and their half-first five combination is gaining confidence. What they lack in star quality is replaced by a good work ethic, a great team plan and game and a balanced squad. Whether that is enough to get them to the final 4...not so sure.

Your (and Sportsnut's) stats have been excellent background details Mr J...keep up the great work! Go the Chiefs! LOL!

[Mr J]

You're right it's do or die for a number of teams. Motivation might play a big part this weekend.