Who can pick losers easily?

[INNY]

Hi

Just wondering if any of you know of an easy way to eliminate about 30% of horses in a race that will have no chance of winning. With a high success rate of about 90+%.

Or could provide me with some ideas/help on how to do this and for what type of races if possible.

[phipsy]

mate, new here so am i. but im good at picking losers but the only system i have is to put money on them. good luck in the future.
good punting everyone!

[partypooper]

G'day,

had to laugh at your post, so many days I was so sure of success, and the inexplicable things happened, resulting in 4x 4ths, and yet other days I thought I would be VERY lucky to show a profit even with 80% succes rate (place betting) and then some thing comes in 3rd and pays $3.30c and another $2.70, so all I can say is it is the "overall" picture that matters over many hundreds of "investments" but good luck!!

[partypooper]

PS. Just thought I would include my ratings bets for tomorrow, though I must be "mad"
PR8-2 Field Commander
MR1-1 lauras Charm
MR6-1 Gold Class
MR8-11 Tall Timbers
SR1-4 Alsizes
BR3-1 Power And Gold
BR8-6 I Scream

I basically bet place only, and use "own" judgement if showing less than $1.30 (supertab) 1 minute b4 the off. However I also run a win bet method of which Field Commander is a contender, but remember that this is 1 of approx 300 bets a year with this particular method so it doesn't mean that Field Commander "WILL" win, it just means that it has a 76% chance as far as I am concerned, which still leaves a 24% chance that it won't!!! Good luck!

[crash]

Inny,

EVERY horse has a chance.

Ruling out 30% of the runners in a race may indeed rule out the 100/1 winner !

I see your general point though and there are many ways to zero in on a small group that usually contains the winner of a race.

Concentrate on the first 5 in the pre-post odds market or the top 5 in a good rating list from Sportsman, Winning post, Wizard or even from the newspaper. They will all contain the winner 80% of the time.


Partypooper,

WOW, what an incredible handicapper you are. You have rated a runner a 76% [not 75% ???] chance of winning !!! LOLOLOL

Cheers.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-03-27 07:01 ]</font>

[Paddy]

On 2004-03-27 01:14, partypooper wrote:
PS. Just thought I would include my ratings bets for tomorrow, though I must be "mad"
PR8-2 Field Commander
MR1-1 lauras Charm
MR6-1 Gold Class
MR8-11 Tall Timbers
SR1-4 Alsizes
BR3-1 Power And Gold
BR8-6 I Scream

I basically bet place only, and use "own" judgement if showing less than $1.30 (supertab) 1 minute b4 the off. However I also run a win bet method of which Field Commander is a contender, but remember that this is 1 of approx 300 bets a year with this particular method so it doesn't mean that Field Commander "WILL" win, it just means that it has a 76% chance as far as I am concerned, which still leaves a 24% chance that it won't!!! Good luck!




Yep, would have to agree partypooper - mad :lol:

[nevets]

You could always follw my tips in the comp that would assure you of some losers

[partypooper]

Paddy, thanks for the kind thoughts, still, 4 winners from 7 bets is not that bad for a crackpot eh?? (chew that slowly)

Crash, I wish I was somewhere near the handicapper that you mention, nothing quite so elaborate, I merely meant that my win method has produced (over all 76% winners) though needless to say they are usually short, but still showing a reasonable profit, though 2day was not mine (Field Commander) but there you go. At least my selections were posted BEFORE RACING (and I recently did just that on THIS forum, for 6 weeks and showed a great profit) wheras theres a few fantastic experts here (on Mondays that is, hahaha!) keep it coming

[Paddy]

On 2004-03-27 23:07, partypooper wrote:
Paddy, thanks for the kind thoughts, still, 4 winners from 7 bets is not that bad for a crackpot eh?? (chew that slowly)


Yes some nice results partypooper, but I do reiterate - your MAD!! But mad in a nice way. :smile: Posting those selections gratis :roll: They will all expect more!
Like I said mad, mad, mad :lol:

[crash]

I eat my words Partypooper [I did pick up Tenancy @ $8.10 and Gold Class in the comp. and on the punt].

If you say 76%, I say... ' YES SIR ' !!!

Now about next week's chances MISTER PARTYPOOPER SIR...???

Probably better to e/m them though.

Cheers. LOLOL


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-03-28 07:22 ]</font>

[Tatouche]

Hey!

In my experience I have found that ten pin pricks out of a ten horse race doesn't produce a winner. Is that confusing its not for me. I do it every weekend and all I get is losers. It's easy.
I'll get you a little hint go from the bottom up or do you go from the top down (damn I just confused myself) ah well there's always next week.
Lots of luck mate.

_________________
Special knowledge is not a talent. One must acquire it by hard work.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Tatouche on 2004-03-28 08:14 ]</font>

[bwheatle]

A valid question Inny, but a difficult one as well. I use the once, twice, three time's your out at this ball-game.

A bit over-raced perhaps? More than 40 starts for a 4 year old. 50 for a 5 year old? Etc. Give 'em a break. Strike 1.

Outclassed? Earnt an average of less than 10% of the highest earner in the field. Strike 2.

Won less than 20% AND placed lass than 40%? Strike 3.

Had more than 5 tries at the course AND 5 tries at the distance and still trying? Strike 4.

Had more starts on slow and heavy tracks than good ones? Strike 5.

Have a Sportsman's Zip below 50 AND a Techform below 80? Strike 6.

Won't find many winners from these ranks.

But, as they say in the classics. Sh** happens.

Doomben Race 1 27/03/2004. Sha Alma saluted.

My study only goes back a few months. This is the only winner that I've found from these ranks. C'mon you guys with databases and computers. I'm sure than Inny, myself and many other users would appreciate your input. We're all on the same side, and I hope this input proves valuable to those that read it.

Successful punting,

Bazza

[partypooper]

Paddy! mmmmm! I never thought of that, yes...... mad as a hatter!!!!

CRASH, unfortunately with the loss of Field Commander I am into that 75% + catagory so maybe you will not be interested in next weeks selections hahahahh!

But at least I can lament on Bohol and Leyte!!!! That'll throw a few off the scent!!!

[Chrome Prince]

If you want to pick losers, just back favourites in maidens and favourites first up from a spell - in general their strike rate is awful.

[crash]

Or, go to the pub, get legless and follow the mob or back those 'whispered' certainties !!!

[Mr ed]

Only suggestion is to back debut maidens who are severe better drifters. May mean the stable and owners have little confidence due to lack of form on the training circuit. I generally lay when they reach 150% of their opening quote.

Cheers ED

[topsy99]

so we cant pick winners with any degree of certainty and we cant pick losers with any degree of certainty.
i can pick about 75% of losers but i dont know out of 100 which 25% the winners will be .
else i would be hitting harder.


isnt that the fun of the game.

[Luckyboy]

Hi Inny,

I have kept a database for several years and I have found that a Pareto principle applies for approximately 80% of race winners. These are the three statistics that drive the principle:

1. Rated within 4 points of the Top rated Zipform (Sportsman) horse:
2. Top 6 in Pre Post Odds (Friday paper);
3. Finished in the first 5 last start.

A word of caution, these rules apply to race fields of more than 8 starters, no 2YO, maidens, steeples or hurdles and Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Saturday metro only.

Hope you find this of help.


Luckyboy

[Mark]

I've said it before....leave out those that open longer than their newspaper price.
Last Saturday, Syd, Melb, Bris, 151 runners fit into this category...only 3 of them won.

[Luckyboy]

Mark,

Can I ask what source you are using for pre-post prices?


Luckyboy

[Mark]

I use Friday's Courier Mail.

The relevance, accuracy and range of paper prices has been discussed before. I still find them a useful tool when compared to the bookies opening markets.

[Luckyboy]

Mark,

Thanks for that. I find the pre-post prices useful as well, but had not considered your approach.

You say you look for the drifts on 'opening price'. I assume this means the first price put up for the race after the finish of the previous race?


Thanks,
Luckyboy

[Mark]

Lucky

No, I don't look for 'drifts', I eliminate a runner if it's opening price (official) is the same or longer than the price in the paper.
eg SR4
2-Restless PP 7.00
5-Jameela PP 9.50
6-Saturday Fever PP 26
10-Ya Ya Effendi PP 35

2 opened 6.00, 5 opened 4.40, 6 opened 11.00, & 10 opened 16.00, every other runner opened the same or longer than their PP, so were weeded out.

Oh who cares, I'll put up another post outlining exactly what I do.

[Luckyboy]

Mark,

An interesting example... Look forward to your next posting.


Luckyboy

[shoto]

Mark,
what source do you use for the official opening prices?

[Luckyboy]

Bazza,

You seem to be a bit of a Sportsman aficionado like myself. I am interested in your 50 points or less criteria.

I have a friend who uses a rule where all horses weighted above their Zipform rating are eliminated.

Have you seen or heard of this or something similar?


Luckyboy

[Mark]

Shoto

First price given at the track, shows up on the monitors. Sunday Mail is pretty spot-on with the reults.

[bilko]

Hi

This is INNY, forgot me username and password.

Thankz to everyone that has posted, i'll add some of those ideas to mine and see if i can win myself some beer tokens.

[Chrome Prince]

"If you want to pick losers, just back favourites in maidens and favourites first up from a spell - in general their strike rate is awful."

A correction to my above statement. It should have read...

"If you want to pick losers, just back favourites which are first starters and favourites first up from a spell - in general their strike rate is awful."

[shoto]

On 2004-03-29 17:03, Mark wrote:
Shoto

First price given at the track, shows up on the monitors. Sunday Mail is pretty spot-on with the reults.


Thanks Mark,
what if you're not at the track?

[Mark]

Get to the track, or get someone at the track to pass on the prices. (I never said that).

[White Turnip]

INNY, you might want to try to eliminate some races first. Not all races are good options to bet in. I recommend not betting in maidens, Class 1 and Class 2 races. There is little exposed form in these races and horses tend to be inconsistent. Wait till a horse has formed some patterns, winning or losing, and then start to sort out the muddle. Another race type to avoid is the one where a lot of horses are resuming, especially the top 5 weighted horses. More than 2 of the top weighted horses resuming and I don't bet.

Hope this helps

[purpleheart68]

White Turnip,totally disagree with NOT betting in Maiden & C1 races!Favs at just before jump have an excellent s/r as I pointed out on a previous post which has dissappeared into the archives!Do you only reccommend not betting in these races because there is not enough exposed form to "rate"them?Have a look at todays results thus far!I am well in front already,backing favs in the very races you say not to bet in.My s/r in these races is a very healthy 45%,but no one seems to want to bet in these races.Maybe you are all brainwashed.

[White Turnip]

purpleheart68, your figures simply do not stack up over time. Check your database results on favs in these events and you will lose. Yes, you will have some good days and yes you will have some bad days but backing favs using that criteria will lead to failure.

These events are generally run in the country and as such the pool is much less. They are suited to smaller punters who will gamble on anything.

You haven't convinced to throw good money at bad races.

[purpleheart68]

results today
Rockhampton
R2(c1)1st 2.50/1.40
R5(M)1st 4.20/1.80
R6(c2)1st 1.90/1.00
R7 (c1) 3rd 1.80

Gosford
R1 (m) 1st 2.30/1.10
R2(m) unpl
R5(m) unpl
R6 unpl

Stoney Creek
R1(M) 1st 2.80/1.50
R2M) 1st 2.80/1.40
R3 unpl
R4 unpl
R6 2nd 2.00

Results
13 bets
6 winners
9 places

I rest my case

[kenchar]

Purpleheart68,
Mondays results were absolutely shocking as well, as far as I can work out it was 16 bets for 10 wins and a dead heat win.

C'mon mate give these low class races a miss, and concentrate on the quality races where the big money goes on.

You know yourself the money you win on these low races is not the the same as the money won on quality races :???:


Thats what it sounds like from the other poster.

Cheers


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-03-30 18:56 ]</font>

[White Turnip]

Last 30 days on Vic and NSW provincial tracks

101 bets 38 winners $95 returned

Last 60 days on Vic and NSW provincial tracks

221 bets 84 winners $201 returned

Do thorough research, not just the winning days.

[White Turnip]

My research based on figures from the NSW TAB are as follows

GOSF
1 MDN $2.30 Won
2 2MDN Lost
3 C2 $1.40 Won
4 C2 Lost
5 MDN Lost
6 MDN Lost
7 C2 Lost

ROCK
2 C1 $2.20 Win
5 MDN $3.40
6 C2 $1.90
7 C1 Lost

S CK
1 3+MDN $3.20 Win
2 2OPN $2.90 Win (Actually a 2YO OPEN)
3 3C1 Lost
4 3+MDN Lost
7 C2 Lost
8 4+C1 Lost

You seem to be very selective on the races you include and omit.

17 bets 7 wins $17.2 returned

[Mr ed]

White Turnip, surely a system based on backing only favorites could not be judged by TOTE prices. We all know to really win on faves you must be on track or have access to top flux. Im sure if the horses you mentioned in your previous post were backed on track the profit would have been much greater then $17.

By the way has anybody done any research or got any figures regarding the % of faves that start shorter on TOTE then the top flux.

Cheers ED

[Mr ed]

Apologies return not profit.

[White Turnip]

I agree, you probably could get a better return by obtaining top fluctuations. What are the criterian for this. Do you have to place your bet 30 mins prior to the race? I heard one bookie mention that, I am not too sure. The problem with bookies is that they usually give less value on the favs than what the tote offers.

Some of these favs are only determined in the last 2 minutes and you may have to decide which of the 2 or 3 horses will ultimately become fav. Look to be honest, you probably won't win too much or lose too much with this method. If you like this method then stick with it. I just enjoy seeing the champion horses running around even if I am not betting on them.

Good luck and do whatever you enjoy doing.

[crash]

Purple heart is right about one thing though and that is more favorites win the early races [maidens etc] than any other race. You might go broke backing them though.

Just recently one of our statsmen here printed out the favorite SR for races 1 to 9 for all races Aust. wide and the highest SR was race 1 gradually reducing to the worst SR of the last race of the day.

The better races are more hotly contested and the favorite's average SP also increases on par with the reducing SR.

Cheers.