Doncaster Hcp./AJC Derby

[purpleheart68]

Had a huge tip about a month or so ago from an astute judge(with access to stable info)I met in Melbourne many years ago when I was managing a city hotel.The Doncaster tip was Titanic Jack and the Derby tip was Elvestroem.Got 25/1 e/w Titanic Jack(now at 12/1)& 5/1 the elf e/w.Both looking good IMO.Any opinions?
cheers

[Chuck]

Don't know about Jack in the Doncaster... many others that pose a threat...Grand Armee, Private Steer, Vocabulary, Ambulance and Excellerator just to name a few!
But I like the 25-1 chances Ike's Dream and Jeremaid

As for the Derby i think the Elf could win - very good get at 5-1!

[Looking back 3 weeks later 5-1 wasn't as good a bet i thought it would be]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chuck_3000 on 2004-04-09 21:26 ]</font>

[zorro]

Purple,
25/1 on Titanic Jack in the Doncaster is a great bet. I took $15 and thought I was doing well. TJ has one of the best finishing bursts of any sprinter/miler in the country.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: zorro on 2004-03-29 20:43 ]</font>

[Raw Instinct]

Right now my tip for the Doncaster is Vocabulary take no notice of its last run it was in the worst part of the track and still reeled of the fastest last 400 and 200 for the race. As far as the Derby goes it is a hard race but if the report I saw today turns out true and Starcraft is healthy again and heading there then I think he wins the race hands down if not I would look to Grand Zulu after its run on the weekend

[Paddy]

Doncaster Handicap - Prices at: 08:58:57, 29 Mar 2004 - Those under 100/1
No. Selection Win Place
251 Private Steer $3.25 $1.55
181 Grand Armee $7.00 $2.50
305 Titanic Jack $11.00 $3.50
308 True Glo $11.00 $3.50
313 Vocabulary $11.00 $3.50
105 Ambulance $13.00 $4.00
161 Excellerator $13.00 $4.00
171 Forum Floozie $13.00 $4.00
186 Hasna $17.00 $5.00
103 Ain't Seen Nothin' $21.00 $6.00
179 Gold Wells $21.00 $6.00
191 Ike's Dream $21.00 $6.00
198 Kablammo $21.00 $6.00
243 Platinum Scissors $21.00 $6.00
276 Shamekha $21.00 $6.00
284 Special Harmony $21.00 $6.00
180 Gordo $26.00 $7.25
196 Jeremiad $26.00 $7.25
241 Pentastic $26.00 $7.25
301 This Manshood $26.00 $7.25
302 Thorn Park $26.00 $7.25
323 Zanna $26.00 $7.25
116 Bird Dancer $34.00 $9.25
120 Boreale $34.00 $9.25
192 In a Bound $34.00 $9.25
318 Yell $34.00 $9.25
176 Generosa $51.00 $13.50
206 Lashed $51.00 $13.50
277 Shower of Roses $51.00 $13.50
282 So Assertive $51.00 $13.50
321 Zabarra $51.00 $13.50
325 Kainui Belle $51.00 $13.50
104 Allgunadoit $67.00 $17.50
135 Confectioner $67.00 $17.50
155 Dress Circle $67.00 $17.50
168 Fiery Venture $67.00 $17.50
195 Irongail $67.00 $17.50
213 Magsaya $67.00 $17.50
215 Mantario $67.00 $17.50
246 Polar Success $67.00 $17.50
261 Recurring $67.00 $17.50
311 Victory Vein $67.00 $17.50

[Paddy]

Have already had a little EW on Platinum Scissors, Shamekha & This Manshood.

[Shaun]

My opinion is Elf is a donkey and does not have the ability to beat a quality field.....it will become one of those horses thats starts fav and gets beaten then people will cheer it when it wins a lower class race

[purpleheart68]

Shaun,dont know where you are coming from.The "ELF"cant beat a quality field???What would you call the VRC Derby??A bunch of hackers?IMO he has not run over a suitable distance since that win,2400 is his go,and he will get that in the Derby.I will put my head on the block right now and say that wherever they finish,he will beat Niello home,AND Special Harmony if she starts.Why Freedman would even consider running her against the males in preference to the Oaks against her own sex,where she has been so dominant is beyond me.GREED!If she does run in the Oaks,Timbourina will stretch her neck!

[umrum]

Special Harmony is a Special in the derby

[william]

AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN'

[stacky69]

Liked the look of Gordo's run on Saturday, and he is due, could be a hope for the Doncaster just have to see what the track conditions are on the day.

[Shaun]

I stand by what i said he is a placer not a winner......but if he wins i will be the first to get down on my knees and beg for forgiveness......lol

[osulldj]

Every year for some reason there are booms placed on the VRC Derby winner as the next big thing in Aust. racing.

However history shows us that winners of the VRC Derby rarely if ever live up to it. Some even call it the "Derby Winners Hoodoo"

2003 Elvstroem - still to be determined
2002 Helenus - we know how well he went afterwards
2001 Amalfi - failed to win another race
2000 Hit The Roof - failed to win another race
1999 Black Friars - failed to win another race
1998 Arena - won 2 of his next 20 starts
1997 Second Coming - won 3 of his next 34 starts
1996 Portland Player - failed to win another race
1995 Nothin Leica Dane - won 1 of his next 17


Ironically 2nd place getters in the Derby have faired much better in their subsequent career (althought recent years are a ?)

2003 Kepimsky - who knows
2002 Hydrometer - failed to win again
2001 Zarek - a massive exception
2000 Universal Prince - can guineas, derby, ranvet, other top class placings
1999 Shogun Lodge - few G1 ones and a stack of other placings
1998 Sky Heights - Rosehill Guineas, Derby, Caulfield Cup, Yalumba amongst others
1997 Tie The Knot - no need to say more
1996 Alfa - failed to win again
1995 Octagonal - no need to say more

Doesn't help us make any money but interesting none the less. :smile:

[Mr ed]

Purpleheart, what would you call the derby, it certainly hasn't proved the best form guide since it was run. Look at the favourites for the AJC derby Niello, Special Harmony, Starcraft, Delzao.The best three year olds in the country all didn't run in the VRC Derby. I wouldn't go as far to say Elvis was a donkey but in subsequent races he has been beaten by three of these four fair and square. My tip is Delzao.

Cheers Ed

[Mr ed]

And a bit of news regarding the Doncaster, Hall said this morning Pentastic would definately run at 41/1 STAB fixed price not bad e/way value especially if it was lucky enough to rain.

Cheers ED

[CACTUS]

like the looks of Hawkesy horse Gordo.good value$$

[xptdriver]

[quote]
On 2004-03-29 23:35, Paddy wrote:
Doncaster Handicap - Prices at: 08:58:57, 29 Mar 2004 - Those under 100/1
No. Selection Win Place
251 Private Steer $3.25 $1.55
181 Grand Armee $7.00 $2.50
305 Titanic Jack $11.00 $3.50
(snipped the others)..

It's interesting the 3 top lines of betting are the horses that chased the Black Horse home yesterday.. 3rd, 2nd and 4th.. I think it will be an OK form line.. I think the winner will come from those 3 at this stage, but I aint sure which one yet...

[staunched]

anybody out there think special harmony is a chance in the doncaster? freedman obviously thinks it is. 41-1 on sportsbet in melb at the moment for a horse of that calibre is tempting.

[purpleheart68]

Hope youre right xpt....backed Titanic Jack some time back at 25/1.....wasnt disappointed with his run behind Lohnro,hes never won at WFA and I think the Doncaster is the race he is in Sydney for....will have be right on his game to beat the other two though.
Staunched....Special Harmony will not run in the Doncaster thats why its 41/1

[Mr ed]

Stuanced, you'll find the derby is run on april 10th and the Doncaster on April 12th it is highly unlikely she would back up after one day off, Still unlikely but she would more likely to back up for the oaks on the 14th so 40/1 is probably unders for its chances of even running in the race let alone winning it.

Cheers ED

[Raw Instinct]

I am still not 100% certain that Vocabulary is going to the Doncaster yet or not but if it goes there with 51.5kgs on her back she has to be damn hard to beatdoesn't she and still at double figure odds on fixed price.

[Paddy]

DONCASTER

Prices at: 08:29:59, 6 Apr 2004
No. Selection Win Place
251 Private Steer $3.75 $1.70
181 Grand Armee $4.25 $1.80
105 Ambulance $9.00 $3.00
308 True Glo $9.00 $3.00
276 Shamekha $10.00 $3.25
305 Titanic Jack $13.00 $4.00
171 Forum Floozie $15.00 $4.50
192 In a Bound $15.00 $4.50
313 Vocabulary $15.00 $4.50
103 Ain't Seen Nothin' $21.00 $6.00
191 Ike's Dream $21.00 $6.00
198 Kablammo $21.00 $6.00
241 Pentastic $21.00 $6.00
243 Platinum Scissors $21.00 $6.00
179 Gold Wells $26.00 $7.25
180 Gordo $26.00 $7.25
301 This Manshood $26.00 $7.25
323 Zanna $26.00 $7.25
120 Boreale $34.00 $9.25
196 Jeremiad $34.00 $9.25
277 Shower of Roses $34.00 $9.25
104 Allgunadoit $41.00 $11.00
186 Hasna $51.00 $13.50
284 Special Harmony $51.00 $13.50
302 Thorn Park $51.00 $13.50
318 Yell $51.00 $13.50
321 Zabarra $51.00 $13.50
116 Bird Dancer $67.00 $17.50
168 Fiery Venture $67.00 $17.50
213 Magsaya $67.00 $17.50
311 Victory Vein $67.00 $17.50
325 Kainui Belle $67.00 $17.50
135 Confectioner $101.00 $26.00
206 Lashed $101.00 $26.00
246 Polar Success $101.00 $26.00
282 So Assertive $101.00 $26.00
326 Miss Potential $101.00 $26.00
106 Amex $126.00 $32.25
176 Generosa $126.00 $32.25
184 Handsome Ransom $126.00 $32.25
187 Hinting $126.00 $32.25
195 Irongail $126.00 $32.25
215 Mantario $126.00 $32.25
247 Pomp and Glory $126.00 $32.25
254 Quiet As $126.00 $32.25
261 Recurring $126.00 $32.25
278 Silky Red Boxer $126.00 $32.25
290 Stoway $126.00 $32.25
109 Ariante $151.00 $38.50
115 Biaggio $151.00 $38.50
122 Britt's Best $151.00 $38.50
130 Charlie Bub $151.00 $38.50
133 Chosen Light $151.00 $38.50
137 Critical List $151.00 $38.50
170 Force Apollo $151.00 $38.50
172 Fouardee $151.00 $38.50
201 Kingside $151.00 $38.50
216 Mapperholic $151.00 $38.50
222 Mrs. Tendulkar $151.00 $38.50
224 My Chanticleer $151.00 $38.50
228 Natural Blitz $151.00 $38.50
231 Nips $151.00 $38.50
237 Our Egyptian Raine $151.00 $38.50
262 Red Hannigan $151.00 $38.50
263 Red Trinket $151.00 $38.50
266 Restless $151.00 $38.50
269 Salgado $151.00 $38.50
281 Skittles $151.00 $38.50
291 Striking Victory $151.00 $38.50
304 Tintagel $151.00 $38.50
314 Who Did It $151.00 $38.50
317 Winsome Loot $151.00 $38.50
319 Yes Boss $151.00 $38.50
324 Zvezda $151.00 $38.50
159 Evander $201.00 $51.00
210 Lord Volksraad $201.00 $51.00
249 Pretorius $201.00 $51.00
250 Prime Century $201.00 $51.00
258 Randwick $201.00 $51.00
102 Acacia Bay $251.00 $63.50
142 Dance The Waves $251.00 $63.50
162 Extagonal $251.00 $63.50
207 Lazzaz $251.00 $63.50
229 Niagara Falls $251.00 $63.50
315 Winestock $251.00 $63.50
212 Magic Marvo $301.00 $76.00

[Raw Instinct]

RANDWICK Acceptances on Monday 12th April, 2004
TAB MEETING. Rail: 3 metres
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6-3.45 SAN MIGUEL DONCASTER 1600 M
Of $2410360 Of $2400000 and $10360 trophies. First $1560000 and trophies of $8360 to owner $1000 to trainer $1000 to jockey, second $480000, third $216000, fourth $96000, fifth $48000. (GROUP 1). No allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 20+4 EM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt Pen
1 GRAND ARMEE Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 19 56.5
2 PENTASTIC David Hall N Rawiller 1 54.5
3 TITANIC JACK Tom Hughes (Jnr) B Prebble 18 54.5
4 PLATINUM SCISSORS Gai Waterhouse D Nikolic 14 54
5 TRUE GLO Lee Freedman D Oliver 9 53.5
6 AMBULANCE John Hawkes 2 53
7 PRIVATE STEER John O'Shea G Boss 16 53
8 BOREALE John Hawkes 17 52.5
9 GORDO John Hawkes 3 52.5
10 SHOWER OF ROSES (NZ) Gai Waterhouse C Munce 8 52
11 THIS MANSHOOD Tim Martin Steven King 23 52
12 AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' Barbara Joseph L Cassidy 24 51.5
13 VOCABULARY Mick Price S Baster 13 51.5
14 KABLAMMO Danny Williams 5 51
15 MISS POTENTIAL Bill Borrie 20 50.5
16 SHAMEKHA Gai Waterhouse M Rodd 11 50.5
17 ALLGUNADOIT (NZ) Kevin Moses R McLeod 10 50
18 FORUM FLOOZIE (NZ) John Hawkes 7 49.5
19 KAINUI BELLE (NZ) Wayne Hillis 4 49
20 IKE'S DREAM John Hawkes 21 48.5
21E SILKY RED BOXER (NZ) Heather Weller N G Harris 12 51
22E AMEX Alan Bailey D Evans 6 50
23E GOLD WELLS Danny O'Brien 15 50
24E SO ASSERTIVE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 22 50

[Raw Instinct]

Well there is the final field and I am stoked to see my top pick right now Vocabulary in the field looks like a tough race. I'll leave it a couple of days before I let a few other picks out but I do like Vocabulary.

[legion]

Purpleheart, I hate to jump on your tips but I've just finished assessing the Derby field for tomorrow and cannot see Elvis running in the first three. He pulled hard last week and I feel that is a sign he may be over the top.In any case his form has been a couple of lengths down on his Derby form of the spring.What I find surprising is you would be prepared to bet so far in advance.Especially at the odds offered.I assume they are on an all in basis and cannot see any value in taking 5's so far out.Imagine what price Elvis would be if Zulus' connections paid up.I cannot split Starcraft, Niello and the filly Special Harmony. So will probably be a no bet race but what a great spectacle it should be. I can't wait to see Starcraft and Niellos' jocks cut loose and get after the filly who should kick over the rise.Good luck tomorrow and I hope Elvis can find his spring form for you tomorrow.

[purpleheart68]

Legion,can't agree with your assessments.Special Harmony is yet to prove a few trhings to me.She has only raced males once,and got beaten by Casual Pass who is no world beater.There are doubts in my mind as to whether Niello and Starcraft will run the trip right out.I do agree that the Elf doesn't appear to have come up this prep,I have backed him again at the 17.00,maybe I am just a glutton for punishment.All will be revealed tomorrow,bring it on!!
Good luck