NRL bets for the weekend of 9/4

[marshy]

No betting lines have been made yet so the below is rather filmsy and definetly not concrete.

If brisbane are given a big enough lead i will be taking them over roosters.

The roosters line took a huge hammering from the penrith forwards and not only this brisbane field quite a large forward pack aswell.

Also Warriors over knights ( when will all this travel done by the warriors take its toll if ever ? ).

Also looking at st george over balmain if the betting lines are worth it.

Open to suggestions and your picks aswell everyone..

[Desi]

Marshy, I know that Fitzgibbons is out with injury but what happened with Morley and Webb after last weekends citings?

Broncos forwards are improving esp Webke and Tallis but the backs are a worry and the Storm found some gaping holes in their defence earlier on.

Even though the Broncos have won 3 out of 4, their defence has let in as many points as the Warriors... not a good thing when you are playing the Roosters! Broncos appear to rely heavily on individual efforts to keep them in the game so Bennett will really have to come up with a simple team strategy to counter what will be a wounded Roosters outfit...how about just watching the Panthers tape for a start? LOL!

Will await the line and margins first Marshy...has anyone got recent stats regarding Broncos v Roosters previous outings?

[marshy]

-=2003=-

Round 6 -
Friday, April 18
Sydney Roosters 27 Brisbane 20 Aussie Stadium (N)

Round 16
Friday, June 27
Brisbane 10 Sydney Roosters 8 Suncorp Stadium (N)

Please note round 16 was after the second state of origin so i do not now how many players were out from either team.

[Desi]

Marshy,
Warriors will have a big forward pack this weekend and Leuluai will be joining Jones in the halves and I really rate this little bloke...maybe he will take a bit of pressure off Jonesy so he can take the ball to the line and find some gaps...Newcastle has a great record against NZ and if O'Davis and Tahu come back and they find a five eighth who can read the game... they will be dangerous. As I have said in previous posts, the Warriors are always hard to follow esp with their recent inconsistent form so you have to take them on trust even at home!

Everything points to a Dragons victory but I haven't seen Wests play so I will stay away from this game...

How about Souths v Parramatta? Marshy, are the Rabbitohs the real deal or is it just a lucky start? If the line odds are good might be worth a punt!

[marshy]

01 Sydney Roosters (-4.5) Add to Calc
$1.90
02 Brisbane Broncos (+4.5) Add to Calc
$1.80

sportstab handicap..

Roosters have 3 players out due to injury and another two on report.

I am not sure if and when they will recieve their penalty's. Maybe someone more knowledgable on the subject could shed some light.
I was hoping for a bigger point start for brisbane so i may not touch this one.


Lines for HT/FT for NZ v Newcastle have not been made yet but will be looking at this very closely.

Unfortunatly i havent watched Souths this season yet so can not comment on there performances to date.

Full lines arnt out yet so will continue watching as they develop.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: marshy on 2004-04-07 12:17 ]</font>

[goldmember]

Morleys already taken 1 weeks penalty and webb 3 weeks,the roosters have 4 out injured , cayless,hegarty,wing and fitzgibbon

[marshy]

Sport 01 RUGBY LEAGUE
Betting Option 16 National Rugby League - RND5
Warr vs Newc - Half/Full Dbl(80Min)
Bet Details 01 Warriors/Warriors
BET $100.00 at $1.45
TICKET VALUE = $145.00

Sport 90 RUGBY LEAGUE EXTRA
Betting Option 03 NRL - RND5
SydR vs Brisbane - 1st Scoring Play
Bet Details 01 Syd Roosters Try
BET $100.00 at $2.25
TICKET VALUE = $225.00

Sport 90 RUGBY LEAGUE EXTRA
Betting Option 03 NRL - RND5
SydR vs Brisbane - 1st Scoring Play
Bet Details 04 Brisbane Try
BET $100.00 at $2.60
TICKET VALUE = $260.00

Sports Multi 1 01 RUGBY LEAGUE 16 Warr vs Newc - Half/Full Dbl(80Min) 01 Warriors/Warriors $1.45
2 01 RUGBY LEAGUE 32 Wests Tigs vs StG-Ill - Handicap 02 St George Illawarra (-5.5) $1.75
3 01 RUGBY LEAGUE 41 Penrith vs Melbourne - Hd To Hd 01 Penrith Panthers $1.28
$3.24 $100.00 $324.00

All the above are from http://www.sportstab.com.au for some reason sportsbook still do not have full odds out yet.
I am dying to put a HD2HD on tonights game.. but so much umming and ahhing about it..

[Desi]

Even without those players, the bookies are still expecting a Roosters win on the H2H...Roosters $1.65 Broncos $2.25

Reckon Tallis and the Broncos forwards will come out firing and take advantage of the absence of Fitzgibbons, Ross, Morley and Cayless (and the dangerous Wing)...not sure however about the backs...Broncos reckon Lockyer has found his groove at fly half but I am yet to be convinced...if he is focussed and the backs tighten up their defence out wide then it will be a good night for Brisbane!

I haven't seen Wests play Marshy/ Goldmember and not sure about previous stats....any thoughts regarding outcome against the Dragons? The Dragons are always a hard team to follow...

Haven't seen the lines for Parramatta v Sths but I like the look of the Rabbitohs for a small bet (depending on the betting)...Eels are another team that are hard to follow...how about the Sharks v Cowboys for a bet? LOL Who would want to be a coach of either team given the way that they have been playing...

Good luck anyway Marshy...got to earn some money to back the Broncos tomorrow...

[goldmember]

Desi, the tigers seem to be struggling a bit without darren senter, and with benji marshall out injured they look to be up against it now, although saints have not won 2 in a row for 13 games . last four games

2001 R:15 DRAGONS 27-22
2002 R:10 DRAGONS 33-22
2002 R:20 DRAGONS 42-8
2003 R:1 W/TIGERS 24-20

CHEERS

[Desi]

Thanks Goldmember...I might stay away from this game...what do you reckon about the Rabbitohs...any line betting details out?

[goldmember]

The line is EELS -8.5 $1.85
The rabbits are going a lot better than i thought they would, with a pair of mad dogs in their team, they have bought better this year than the rubbish they have previously picked up.and i would have michael witt as the eels halfback. The last couple of years ive backed the eels against the rabbits and although they have ended up winning,its usually a stuggle. rabbits have not beaten them since 1995, with parra winnng their last 9 encounters, also parra have won their last 8 games at parra stadium
last 4 games:

2002 R:6 EELS 22-14
2002 R:22 EELS 54-0
2003 R:12 EELS 28-4
2003 R:19 EELS 34-20

PRETTY CLOSE , BUT ILL TAKE THE +8.5 FOR THE RABBITS

CHEERS


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-04-08 15:14 ]</font>

[goldmember]

NRL looks 50/50 in most games, so i think if you want good things AFL might be the anchors this week.

BRIS LIONS

SWANS

PT ADELAIDE


allup $1.53 sportstab
$1.75 sportodds

cheers

[goldmember]

Desi, re roosters/bronco's

normally tight ,low scoring matches
last 4 games:

2002 R:22 ROOSTERS 28-18
2002 R:29?[S/F]ROOSTERS 16-12
2003 R:6 ROOSTERS 27-20
2003 R:16 BRONCOS 10-8

RE WARRIORS/KNIGHTS

last 4 games:
2002 R:3 KNIGHTS 32-14
2002 R:10 WARRIORS 34-12
2003 R:1 KNIGHTS 36-26
2003 R:23 KNIGHTS 36-20

I was at the game when the warriors won in 2002, the knights were without,johns, tahu,kennedy, simpson, buderus,gidley on state of origin duty, and they got smashed.

re: sharks/ cowboys
last 4 games
2001 R:18 SHARKS 36-6
2002 R:15 SHARKS 46-16
2003 R:24 SHARKS 36-14
2003 R:16 SHARKS 34-28

SHARKS have won 13/14 games between these clubs [7/7 @toyota park]that says it all.

cheers

[Desi]

Thanks Goldmember...will take Broncos on the line and have a look at Souths...

[marshy]

$50 on brisbane with a 3 1/2 point start at $1.87

$50 on brisbane with a 4 1/2 point start at $1.80

Desi what line did you take ?

[Desi]

Marshy,

Happy with Broncos win last night had them at Ozbet ($100- +3.5/ $1.90) and $70 - $2.55 first score type- try to Broncos...Lockyer and the Berrigan bros played well and the forwards dominated as expected...Roosters will be a different proposition once their stars return though...made up for my Super 12 bet (+12.5) Highlanders last night...not sure what I was thinking!!!

[sportznut]

Yeah, I had a small bet on the Broncos with the start too.

I must say that as soon as I heard that Lockyer was going to play 5/8 this year, I immediately rated them a LOT higher to win the premiership. If he had stayed at Fullback, I would have given them almost no chance.

The Roosters will definitely be back though. They were missing quite a few top players last night.

[Desi]

Sports,
For me the jury is still out on Lockyer's move to 5/8th...he is the best fullback in the world but the Broncos (with their dominant forward pack) need a good flyhalf with vision and leadership and he has those qualities- he is getting better and his timing and running angles are much tighter...bet you he has never tackled so much (he he!) in his life! Maybe I should put a couple on Queesland to take the State of Origin...mmm

Sports, what do you think about Parra v Souths game..thinking about taking Souths on the line banking on their recent form as not being a fluke...only prob is that Parra have a good record against the Bunnies and may decide to put it all together in this game!

[sportznut]

Well, my thinking is that it's a no-bet game, but don't let me stop you from betting.

Personally, I think Parra will probably win, but I have no real confidence in them. Likewise, I don't really have any confidence that Souths good form will continue either. If you DO think that Souths can keep playing as well as they did last week, then I guess the 8.5 start does look okay.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-04-10 13:05 ]</font>

[Desi]

Agree Sports...will stay away and look for better bet...

[sportznut]

Geez, I hope I didn't steer you away from a winner.

[BettyBoop]

On 2004-04-10 17:17, sportznut wrote:
Geez, I hope I didn't steer you away from a winner.


I'm sure you wouldn't do that on purpose sportznut.

[sportznut]

No way!!!

[Desi]

Sports,
Put some on the Warriors to win at home...didn't take my own advice and stay away from the game...if the Warriors think that they can carry on with Jones as the pivot and a lack of depth in the subs...they are doubtful to make the finals...Anderson needs to make some hard decisions but something tells me he is gambling on his faith with Jones...he is not even 50% of the player he was 2 years ago. Knights were focussed and the team showed lots of courage and carried out Hagan's game plan to the T. Great game...wish they showed the same determination last week against the Dragons LOL!

[sportznut]

Desi,

It's what I call the "Bounce Back Factor", and it's an important thing in team sport.

When a team gets thrashed one week and is heavily criticised for their effort, they often come out and win the following week as complete underdogs.

Last week, the Knights were awful against the Dragons and got smashed. Well, after getting bagged for that performance and criticised for being just a one man team, they certainly had plenty of ammunition to get fired up for this game. Also, nobody really expected them to win this week, so they had nothing to lose.

By the way, the bounce back factor was also at work with St George last week too. If you remember they got thrashed by Melbourne the week before.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-04-10 20:20 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Geez, the Sharks are awful! :roll:

[Desi]

Sports,
Thought the Cowboys had a lot more determination this time (bounced back) but yes those Sharks are bloody awful...the standard seems to be getting wider between the top and bottom teams...other than the Panthers...your guess is as good as mine as to who will win the other games...Wests and Souths the way things are going...my NRL footy picking has got off to a bad start LOL...

[marshy]

.... Lol... ever since i started posting here my gambling bank has gone from +300 to +100...

Bit of a throw away bet but if manly score the first try i will have covered my losses for the weekend and if bulldogs score the first try i will have only lost another 20.

I like those odds :smile:...

[goldmember]

I hope you take notice of who the ref is when you take that option of 1st scoring play. some ref's like to blow there whistle from the kick off, hayne archer lyons, but with clark, he likes to let it run a bit so you should be o'kay. I always check the ref first when i back this option.

cheers

[goldmember]

Didn't change my mind in the parra/ souths game, rabbits goal $7.25. you bloody little ripper !

cheers

[Desi]

Good on you Gold...great bet...Did not bet Goldmember as would have taken Souths on line...actually Souths showed a bit of spirit and stayed with Parra until the last 10 minutes...hope they don't disintegrate after yesterday...hope to improve this week!!! Bring it on! LOL!

[goldmember]

It's still early in the year, but i can see signs of the old souths starting to appear and it doesn't look good

[sportznut]

Desi,

Glad you didn't back Souths on the line. You can see why I wasn't confident in them holding their form.

[Desi]

Cheers Sports, Sometimes I have a rush of blood when I see what the teams are paying rather than focussing on observation, stats, odds and good old intuition...Parramatta have a lot to thank Hindmarsh for...he does a ton of work..their off the line defence leaves a lot to be desired and they will be in heaps of trouble against the likes of the Panthers, Roosters if they don't tighten up!

[marshy]

well a really horrible week for me...
Hmmm ever since i started posting here actually =),...

Goldmember.. congrats.. But i didnt see you tipping a penalty kick on here ? or did i miss it ?

[goldmember]

No i didn't tip it , i said i always look who the ref is first, when i saw hayne as the ref[ he is hopeless]and parra /souths are not very disciplined sides i backed the penalty kick, also souths have not scored the first try in any of their games this year and do kick goals first[ i learned the hard way last year against the bulldogs]. Also, cowboys go for goal a lot too.

cheers