Super 12s week 9

[Mr J]

Watched the replay of the blues-bulls match. Blues looked great, king carlos working his magic.

[Desi]

Yep, Mr J, Carlos is certainly back and doesn't his presence have an impact on the confidence of the rest of the players esp the backline...they all lifted their game and played some entertaining rugby.

Stormers will be a great test as they have a strong forward pack and some decent backs. You don't have the Stormers defensive stats, Mr J, away from home?

[Mr J]

Depends what you mean by defensive stats. Yep carlos made a great difference. Also thought the blues defended well.

NSW vs Hurricanes should be the game to watch this weekend. First of all it's an aussie team with a chance, second it's in a decent time zone, and third both teams play running rugby :wink:

One of the last tries by the blues was excellent. Someone drifted across, might have been atiga, passed of to one of the outside blues who did a pop pass to rokothoco who did a pop to one of the other blues. Went through 4 players within a few metres. Only a team with alot of talent and confidence could pull that off. It was also nice to see the bulls throw the ball around.

To make the semis the Blues will need:
1) A bit of luck (ie 3/4 of the crusaders, chiefs, nsw and stormers to not to too well)
and 2) to win an away game. They play the Cats away so they are still there. Right time to be pulling it together.

Not out of reach but maybe

[sportznut]

Early lines from IAS:

BLUES VS STORMERS
Blues -14.5 1.90
Stormers +14.5 1.90

REDS VS BULLS
Reds -5.5 1.90
Bulls +5.5 1.90

SHARKS VS CHIEFS
Sharks -8.5 1.90
Chiefs +8.5 1.90

WARATAHS VS HURRICANES
Waratahs -7.5 1.90
Hurricanes +7.5 1.90

CATS VS CRUSADERS
Cats +8.5 1.90
Crusaders -8.5 1.90

Big test for my Home Dog linebetting system this week. Do you reckon 8.5 is okay for the Cats, Mr J?

[Mr J]

Ha I picked it again. I always know where the value will be for each game (well where the value is according to my system). I already knew which sides I was playing before the lines came out!!!

Well my system says go for +8.5 so I'll be playing it.

My system says play:
Stormers +14.5
Reds -5.5
Chiefs +8.5
Hurricanes +7.5
Cats +8.5

I don't actually want to go against the Blues, Sharks, or NSW ....but I will. I do feel more comfortable with the cats than going against NSW or the Blues.

BTW that spread for the Cats would've covered on their last 3/4 encounters vs the Crusaders. That includes 2002 when the cats were terrible and the crusaders won the comp and were undefeated.

[Mr J]

Bets are:
Stormers +15
Reds -4.5,
Chiefs +8.5,
Hurricanes +7.5
Cats + 11.5,

Reds/cats are at -105 and chiefs at -102.

[Desi]

Mr J,
Agree that the Cats will be buoyed by their recent victory and Crusaders will have to be at the top of their game to ensure the so called easybeats don't get a roll on.

I thought that the Chiefs were unlucky last week so an improvement against one of the form teams (Sharks) will be no surprise...I can't see them winning but will take the line bet +8.5 Chiefs.

Not so sure about the Hurricanes v NSW..they both have some great talent but rarely manage to reach their potential. A Hurricanes win would not be a surprise if Holwell does not play (he is a major weakness as their lynchpin). Personally, the Warratahs play positive rugby and even without Rogers have talent to burn out wide, which would be great to see in the finals...

Not sure about the Blues yet...Bulls were not as strong as I thought so the Stormers are a good test. A big win for the Blues will send warning bells to the top 4 but it may have been too late! If Braid is playing they will be hard to beat.

Is Flatley playing for the Reds? If so, then they will be a better team and a good bet on the line otherwise I'm staying away.

Good luck and great viewing guys and big returns this weekend!

[sportznut]

On 2004-04-16 10:13, Desi wrote:
Is Flatley playing for the Reds?


No, unfortunately not Desi. This is from an article on Rugbyheaven:

Greg Growden's preview: Can it get any worse for the Reds? In easily their unluckiest Super 12 season, the bad luck continues - this week losing Wallaby forward hopeful Daniel Heenan with a damaged shoulder. And Elton Flatley is sidelined yet again, prompting a face from the past, Nathan Williams, to be picked at five-eighth. Williams, who believed his representative career was over and decided several month ago to buy a lawn mowing business on the Gold Coast, was never renowned for his defence. And the Bulls are bound to be directing their mowers straight at him. It could be brutal.

[Desi]

Cheers Sports...lawnmowing business mmm!!!??? Could be a bad day at work for the Reds first five...

[Mr J]

Desi I totally agree. The cats don't usually lose by a large margin at home, and would've covered with a spread of 11.5 20 of the last 23 games. That's also 7 of the last 8. This obviously tells us that no win is easy vs the Cats, no matter how bad a team they are.

The chiefs also quite strong in SA, and obviously would've been very disapointed by last weeks effort. The sharks will be hard to beat at home but at -8.5???

NSW vs Hurricanes is definately a game that could go either way. I'm thinking both teams will be playing some great rugby and should be a great match to watch.

If the bulls get their forwards working and play to their strengths they could be quite tough to keep at bay. Can I lose on the red 2 weeks in a row???Probally will :wink:

Blues had some great moments last wkend but the stormers are a much better road team than the bulls. That blues-bulls scoreline could have easily been lower, and I just think -15 may be too much to cover for the blues.

[sportznut]

Okay, what the hell is happening in Auckland??? I'm not watching the game, but I'm looking at the score updates on the net and I can't believe my eyes!!! :eek:

[Mr J]

Yeh I know sportz I justed turned the TV on to see 43-11 to the stormers after just 53 minutes!!!!! Boy we picked it this time!!

[sportznut]

I think the Stormers are playing themselves into the semis tonight. What do you think?

[Mr J]

I'm not sitting in front of the TV but from what I've seen the stormers have really got it together. This win will make it hard for them not to make the semis

[Mr J]

Well the stormers cover by a massive 43 points.

[sportznut]

I'm still in shock! I bet the Auckland crowd is too. EIGHT TRIES!!!

It just goes to show how good the Stormers are away from home. I think we can almost pencil in 2 South African teams for the semis. What an improvement on a couple of years ago.

[sportznut]

Now the Bulls get up as well. Surely they couldn't make the semis??? I had a small bet on them with 5.5 start, purely because the Reds are an absolute rabble at the moment and don't look like beating ANYONE.

Will be interesting to see them play NSW in a few weeks. Could this be the year that NSW actually beats QLD in a S12 game???

[Paddy]

On 2004-04-16 18:55, sportznut wrote:
Okay, what the hell is happening in Auckland??? I'm not watching the game, but I'm looking at the score updates on the net and I can't believe my eyes!!! :eek:


:eek: AND :eek: :eek: 51 Vs 23 !!!

On 2004-04-16 21:37, sportznut wrote:
Now the Bulls get up as well...I had a small bet on them with 5.5 start, purely because the Reds are an absolute rabble at the moment and don't look like beating ANYONE.



Thanks for the PRE match tip spotnutsz :roll:

[Desi]

Well, the Blues bubble has certainly burst and Sports, Mr J...good call guys... Stormers look strong...in fact the SA teams seem to be getting things right and there are a lot of young, exciting players coming through as well.

Reds were predictably disappointing which does give the Bulls an outside chance.

[sportznut]

Unlucky Phil,

I'm sorry. In future, I'll try not to talk about my bets after they've won!!!

As I said, I only had a small bet on the Bulls. They have an awful record in Australia so I wasn't really confident enough to tip them to you guys. Besides, I only decided to bet about 5 minutes before the game, so not too much chance for anyone else to get on then.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-04-17 07:23 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Desi, a good win for your Chiefs puts them in the top 4, at least for now! :smile:

[goldmember]

watched the game, the blues a bit like the sharks in the nrl

[Mr J]

I have outrights on all of the top 4

Brumbies 12.50
Stormers 41.00
Sharks 150.00
Chiefs 21.00

So both of my dogs win and like I predicted, the reds lost (maybe NSW has a chance).

[Mr J]

Looks like the cut for the top 4 could be as high as 34-35. Chiefs sitting on 23 points and Sharks on 25 both with 3 home games left. Stormers on 28 points could very well pick up another win along with a couple of bonus points. If the crusaders beat the cats that'll put them on 24-25 points with 2 home games left. I don't think the bulls will get there, and NSW would have to win every game.

[sportznut]

Geez, it must have been a great game in South Africa overnight. With the Cats behind 29-6 at half time, I basically gave up on winning my line bet and went to bed. This morning I checked the score and they've only gone down by 2!!!

Anyway, that makes it 11-1 this year for my Home Dog system!!! I keep thinking that it must fail soon, but so far so good. :smile:

[Mr J]

It was actually 36-6, watched most of the 2nd half at a party. Cats scored 3 tries in around 5 mins. Pretorius slotted a field goal with around 4 mins to spare to take it to 37-36. In the final 30 secs the Cats gave away a penatly which Carter slotted over, game over. Cats really deserved that one, definately the best comeback I've ever seen.

Now NSW is really need some results to go their way. They need 2/3 of the sharks/crusaders/chiefs to lose one game and for NSW to win the remaining 3 (quite possible).

Chiefs have to play the stormers (a tough game for the chiefs), the bulls, and also have to hold off the brumbies. All of those are at home, but none of those should be easy. I think the chiefs will drop one of these games.

The sharks have to play the stormers, the reds and the blues. All at home.

The crusaders have to play the bulls and stormers at home, and the hurricanes away.

NSW play the highlanders and brumbies at home, and the reds away. The test here will the brumbies, but I'm confident NSW can hold them off.

So everyone from positions 3-6 really wants to win every game to get a spot. None of these teams really have an easy run. It'll be a great last few weeks though.

BTW my system went 3-2 for a total of 38-10.

This week 4/5 of the dogs covered, and 4/5 of the winning teams were the away teams.

[Desi]

Sports,
Switched over at 36-6 (to the Crusaders) to watch the soccer-a disappointing Chelsea scoreless draw to Everton and then Man U lose at home to the Pompey. Every time I had a quick look, the score between Canterbury and the Cats got closer and then at 37-36 to the Cats 2mins to go...thought that was the final score. LOL. Crusaders went to sleep in the last 25 minutes to allow the Cats in...they have a lot of individual talent in their team and if they gel together next year- the Cats will be hard to beat!

Chiefs must have had a solid game...coach Ian Foster was a handy 1st five himself and has the luxury of two reasonable players in this position to select from...Glen Jackson is a good kicker and solid performer around the field...the result means we're in for an exciting finish!

NSW had a good game but there has to be a major improvement if they are to be top 4 contenders!

Mr J, reckon your picks were spot on this weekend...unfortunately stayed away from SA games but did bet on Bulls v Reds.

Keep it up and good luck with your final selections!

[Mr J]

"Switched over at 36-6"

The worst time to switch!!! I turned it on at 36-6 :wink:

"NSW had a good game but there has to be a major improvement if they are to be top 4 contenders!"

I don't know. I think NSW were much stronger than the crusaders this weekend. Field position was excellent, got the basics right and were dominant in all areas. Brumbies didn't play, stormers were great and didn't see the chiefs. I don't think how strong NSW is right now is the problem for them, it's that they now have to rely on other some of the others teams to not do so well.

"Mr J, reckon your picks were spot on this weekend

I thought NSW might run away with it and that the reds would fail me again (well I assured you all that would happen :wink:. BUT my system has done well so far so it's probally smart to stick with it. BTW got the scores for next week, I'll post em in a new thread.