Super 12s Week 10

[Mr J]

Chiefs-Stormers 27-25
Crusaders-Bulls 40-25
Highlanders-Hurricanes 28-20
NSW-Brumbies 26-24*
Sharks-Reds 28-27
Cats-Blues 27-28

Happy with that chiefs scoreline. Stormers a strong chance, great form right now. Should be good to watch. Motivation for both teams, more so for the chiefs.

Crusaders-Bulls, happy with that. Not a great game for the crusaders, but they should be too good for the bulls. Crusaders will be looking to pick up the full 5 points here. They'll probally take the points unless they get out to a comfortable margin where they'd gor for the 4 tries.

Highlanders-hurricanes. Ah the house of pain. Both teams really just playing for pride now, still should be a good watch.

NSW-Brumbies. I really hope the bookies make NSW a slight dog!!! Brumbies will be overrated depsite NSW showing some great form on the weekend. I think NSW might get home by more than 2, maybe my 5-10 points. Big motivation here, more so for NSW. Brumbies obviously want to clinch #1 but NSW is fighting to stay in the comp. Sell out home crowd as well.

Sharks-reds. Well well, reds will probally be +7.5 or so here so my system recommends them. Can I lose for the third week in a row on the reds? Yeh I probally will. I admire my dicipline though. Motivation will also be a factor, as the sharks will really want to win this to stay in the hunt, otherwise they may be relying too much on the results of the other teams.

Cats-Blues, bookies never learn so hopefully cats will be >+7.5. Probally will only be +4.5 or +5.5 but I will be happy to back them.

[Mr J]

Here are the current lines:
Chiefs +2.5
Crusaders -11.5
Otago -1.5
NSW +3.5
Sharks -13.5

Well my system has the chiefs -2, so I guess I know what I'll have to take (really didn't wanna go against the stormers, but is a home dog :smile:

My system says 15 for the crusaders, so it looks like I'll be taking the home team.

Highlanders-hurricanes, home team -1.5 for me.

NSW another home dog. I also don't know why they're a medium dog. Will have home crowd, motivation na confidence/belief after last week. I'd pick +3.5 even if I wasn't using a system.

Well my system says the sharks, but only just. Can I lose for the third week a row on the reds?

[Squirter]

Mr J,

Keep ya eye on the final lineup for the Chiefs as my contacts tell me Adrian Cashmore will be starting at Fullback....and we all know what he did for the Blues till he went to Japan in 2000.

squirter

[Desi]

Squirter,
Thought Todd Miller was filling in for Crichton...anyone know if Lowen is playing? If not the Chiefs will be vulnerable in the centres.

[Desi]

Mr J,
The Chiefs certainly have the motivation but sheesh...those Stormers look strong right to the reserves! Not sure about that game...

Reckon the Cats have a chance against the Blues and NSW look a better team with Berne at Five eigth but as you know I rate the Brumbies but it would be good to see a Warratahs win!

Reds have let me down before so I will stay away especially in SA...did Flatley go with them?

Crusaders will be glad to be playing at home and will need to re-group and tighten up their defence around the rucks and flanks...Good luck...

[sportznut]

Yeah, it looks like Flatley will play this week Desi. Don't really think that'll be enough though.

[Desi]

Agree with you Sports...for some reason I have soft spot for the Reds..they have had some bad luck this season...really lacking class in crucial positions...Flatley will bring some balance and much needed experience but they will require more than that to even come close!

[Squirter]

Desi,

My understanding is this...both Lowen and Miller are out injured, in comes Maisey and McQoid and there's nothing wrong with these two replacements either...this is a
HUGE game for the Chiefs so the bolter could be Cashmore and he loves cutting it up from the back. Also out is Honeck and Holah is rated 50/50 but I would suggest he'll play. The paddock's hard and fast too, she'll be one hell of a game, pity, I'll miss the Test on my way home.

[Mr J]

I haven't factors like injuries or motivation into my system.

Desi I know you rate the brumbies as invincible for some reason. They really are overrated but I guess I'm the only one who sees it :wink:

My system says the chiefs and they're a home dog so that's enough for me to bet. Like I've said before, the stormers are a very strong road team and will definately give the chiefs a match.

Reds have failed me 2 weeks in a row, and I'm thinking they'll do it again. +13.5 might be enough to make it a close game though.

I have NO problem backing NSW +3.5.

Anyway here are my bets:
Crusaders -11.5
Chiefs +2.5
Highlanders -1.5
NSW +3.5
Reds +13.5

All at 1.95.

System says blues by 2 so I should take blues outright at 1.96, don't wanna go against a home dog but it's all about dicipline so:

Blues 1.96

[Desi]

Squirter,
Should be a cracker...Chiefs v Stormers but Honeck and Lowen are big losses and I thought that Maisie was suspect in defence and his decision making with the ball in previous matches...but I reckon the Chiefs will be fired up though...is Hill playing? Adrian at the back would be a welcome bonus for the Chiefs...J Gibbs has been fantastic for the Chiefs pack and will have to be at his best to counter a very strong set of Stormers forwards...they play a very good disciplined tactical game and have some talent out wide...

Mr J,
I have a lot of respect for the likes of Gregan, Larkham, the back 3 and some of the forward pack in the Brumbies (in terms of their experience and ability to handle pressure)...individually, there a better teams around but ACT have proven themselves when it counted. Only the individually brilliant Blues and consistent Crusaders (who had mainly ABs) managed to beat them in the finals... It really is do or die for the Warratahs but not just in terms of this year's finals...credibility is at stake!

Personally, on recent form and without a sound First 5, I can't see the Blues beating the Cats..so will be taking the Cats on a line bet. Home dogs rule LOL!

Agree with all your other calls Mr J ...hoping Flatley can curb what could be a bad day for the Reds...

[Mr J]

Sure the brumbies are an awesome team, I just think they are overrated.

I really hate to go against the cats after they've treated me so well (I've only lost once in the 9 games they've been in). Just that the system says blues -2 and the bookies say -2 to -3. If I found a spread which allowed me to bet the cats I'd do it, but I haven't found one yet. I wasn't going to bet at all until I found the blues to win at 1.96 outright.

I don't want to be betting on cats +2.5 at 1.83 if I think the spread & fair price is +2 2.00. BTW the blues have been quite inconsistent (massive win vs the bulls followed by a massive loss to the stormers) and could pull it together like they did against the bulls. The crusaders and chiefs didn't exactly play well against the cats.

[Mr J]

Sportznutz do you have the '02 and '03 records for against the spread? I checked out my record and have gone 27-6 on dogs and 11-5 on faves. That mean dogs have covered 32/49 times. I was just wondering if you knew whether it was profitable to just blindly bet S12 dogs.

Do you know how well NRL dogs have performed over the years?

[Mr J]

another notch on the bedpost, chiefs over stormers 29-14. Damn shame the chiefs got that final try, I was hoping they'd only pick up 4 points.

[sportznut]

Mr J,

In 2002, the favourites came out on top, but in 2003 you would have just finished ahead backing all underdogs. On the other hand, just betting blindly on every underdog against the spread this year would have you comfortably in front. By the way, if you backed every underdog this year outright, you'd be easily in front too.

Anyway, here's the 2002 and 2003 results for underdogs against the spread.
2002 29-34
2003 36-29

As for NRL, I'm sorry, but I don't have the 2002 figures right at the moment but here's how underdogs went against the spread in 2003: 93-84. Basically just enough to break even I guess.

Hope that helps.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-04-23 21:10 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Yeh, not an obvious trent. Line shopping probally would've given a bit more to the dogs.

[Mr J]

Well nearly got the crusaders-bulls score right, real score was 40-21. That's 2 from 2 so far. I'm betting on teams that I really don't want to win (it would've been good for nsw if the chiefs and crusaders both lost).

[Mr J]

Highlanders over Hurricanes, 26-14. 3 from 3.

[sportznut]

Geez, it must have been a tremendous game in Sydney. Anyway that keeps NSW in the hunt and the Brumbies will still be leading after this round.

Chalk another one up to the Home Dogs too! :smile:

[Mr J]

Well I've come home to find my SA bets have won as well, giving me 6 from 6 this weekend.

Yep NSW with a great chance, they should win both of their remaining games. If either the chiefs or stormers don't win all their remaining games then NSW will be in. NSW also has an advantage with the F/A if it comes down to that. Maybe my sharks at 150.00 won't make it :sad: It's a damn shame nsw didn't walk away with 5 points though.

Anyway the chiefs must defend against the brumbies and bulls, with the stormers playing the crusaders and sharks. Chances are one of these teams will drop a game. NSW doesn't need to worry about the sharks (the sharks are less likely to walk away with 5 points and they have a lower F/A).

BTW the reds beating the sharks outright with only one try scored in the match. No-one on this earth would have predicted that scoreline (not even my system :wink: )

Sportz, not bad for home dogs, they went
2-1.

[Desi]

Great picks Mr J...you were bang on!

Your call with the Chiefs, Blues, NSW were spot on...did you back the Reds?

Chiefs lifted to play a great game and NSW showed they could play the full 80 mins....excellent game...the talent amongst both backlines!!! Think Finnegan struggled with the pace and the NSW back rowers really gave the edge to the Warratahs...they are definitely in with a chance if they can maintain the momentum. But would not write off ACT, they came back to lead 3 mins to go and should have closed shop...ref was a little whistle happy I thoought.

Blues played well and could worry the Sharks next week! Did my money in with the Cats...d'oh!

The Reds v Sharks game was a shocker but really like the guts and determination of the Reds forwards (in fact the whole team including Wendell!)

Crusaders still have some defensive lapses to sort out...overall, it was a bad weekend for the SA teams.

[sportznut]

Mr J,

Great effort getting 6 from 6! :smile:

By the way, for the purposes of my Home Dog system, I actually use the odds outlined by TAB Sportsbet, and they didn't have line betting on the Chiefs/Stormers or Cats/Blues because they considered them too close. I CAN and DO use other bookies to bet with, but I stick to the simple rule that if TAB Sportsbet considers the game too close to have line betting then I won't use it in my system. As a result, I had just one bet for my Home Dog system this weekend (NSW +4.5). I also backed the Crusaders over 12.5, so 2 from 2 for me this week.

What on earth happened between the Reds and the Sharks??? That's got to be the lowest score in S12 for ages!!!

[sportznut]

On 2004-04-25 03:49, Mr J wrote:
Yep NSW with a great chance, they should win both of their remaining games.



You're obviously putting them down for a win against Qld then. I know that form says they probably should win, but I know just how much the Reds lift for this game and they will want to keep that unbeaten record intact. That is one of the major problems with the Reds. If they played every week with the same intensity that they show against NSW, they'd make the semis every year! :smile:

[Mr J]

With NSW vs the Reds, I'd take NSW but then again I'd be biased. Thank god I use a system. You're right, the reds will probally be a different team when it comes time to play NSW.

Desi, I did back the reds at +13. At 6-5 it probally would have been the worst game of the season to watch.

That makes my system 44-10 this season. Absolutely crazy, almost don't believe it.

[Desi]

Good on you Mr J...I backed off but hoped that the Reds would stem the scoring tide and play for pride...they showed some steel and guts against the Sharks.

The Reds game against NSW is going to be a cracker! NSW forwards will get some confidence from the Brumbies game and that will help their talented backline but they can't afford to fall away in the second half...Berne has proven he has ability at first five and we all know the talent out wide...

I underestimated the Blues resolve and organisation this weekend and maybe they can put something against the Sharks which will definitely allow the Warratahs a good chance to get into the 4. Its going to be an interesting weekend for at least half the teams!

Good luck one and all!

[Mr J]

I think NSW has it easier than some of the teams above it. They play the highlanders at home (good chance of 5pts) and the reds away (4pts).

The Stormers must play the crusaders and sharks, both away. It's likely they must win both and I doubt they will. Don't think the stormers will be in the top 4 come the semi's.

The chiefs must defend against the bulls (should win) and brumbies (toss up) at home. The chiefs definately have a much better chance of winning both than the stormers do, but I'd think NSW has it easier.

The sharks play the blues and stormers. They will probally have to pick up 10 points to beat NSW (nsw will probally get 9, but sharks need more due to F/A). I highly doubt the sharks will pick up 10, so unfortunately I don't give them much of a chance (time to start laying off that 150.00 future).

The crusaders play the hurricanes and stormers. A bit harder than what NSW has it, but could very well win both and stay in the 4.

I think the top 4 will be:
Brumbies
Crusaders
Chiefs (maybe stormers)
NSW

You're right Desi, this weekend might decide the top 4.

[Paddy]

A blow to the Stormers Super 12 chances with former Springbok captain Corne Krige banned for eight weeks for head-butting.

Reported Krige will retire from Super 12 and likely leave South Africa to play in England at the end of the season.

[Desi]

Paddy,
Great player that he is, Krige has always had discplinary problems and as captain has let his team down on previous occasions. Reminds me of the 'old school' SA forwards. He certainly gives it his all and plays with lots of passion. Will be a loss all right.

[Mr J]

The chiefs also have around 5 playes that could be out against the bulls this weekend. Mostly forwards as well.