Measuring Class

[Luckyboy]

Hi All,

I am having real difficulty in coming up with a quick method for measuring the class of a horse.

Does such a thing exist?

My current attempts revolve around Average Prize money (API) as measured against:

1. Race Prize money;
2. Prize money Average Last 3 Starts;
3. Prize Money Index against the rest of the Field.

But, at the end of the day I'm not getting it right.

Are there any suggestions out there?


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[La Mer]

[quote]
On 2004-04-28 17:19, Luckyboy wrote:
I am having real difficulty in coming up with a quick method for measuring the class of a horse.

Luckyboy: This works in determing the 'class' horse of the field, but it does take a bit of effort.

In handicap races for the following:
award one point for every kg above the minimum a horse is handicapped (ignoring any claims) - max 10 points;
determine a ranking order for win strike rate and award ten points for the top-ranked horse, nine for the second, etc;
do the same re the place ranking;
do the same for both the total prizemoney and the average prizemoney rankings and add the two together and then score out of ten, ie. combined top-ranked gets ten points etc.

Sum up all the points and what you will be left with should be the 'class' runner of the field.

Just one caution - be careful when ranking lightly raced horses.

To quicken the process totally ignore any horse handicapped on the minimum weight or within one kg of the minimum weight - often you will be left with only a handful of runners.

In WFA and set weights races, do not award any points for 'handicapping' because there hasn't been any, but double the points for the combined prizemoney ranking.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-04-28 18:51 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-04-28 18:56 ]</font>

[Luckyboy]

La Mer,

Thank you for your suggestion. I have used Average Prizemoney in a ranking before, but never thought to combine it with other factors.

Some good food for thought there...

Again thanks.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[Chrome Prince]

On 2004-04-28 17:19, Luckyboy wrote:
Hi All,

I am having real difficulty in coming up with a quick method for measuring the class of a horse.

Does such a thing exist?

My current attempts revolve around Average Prize money (API) as measured against:

1. Race Prize money;
2. Prize money Average Last 3 Starts;
3. Prize Money Index against the rest of the Field.

But, at the end of the day I'm not getting it right.

Are there any suggestions out there?


Another man who thinks the same way as me.:wink:

Here are my suggestions:

Divide the API figure by the average of all the API's in the race.
Divide the API for the last three races of each horse and divide that by the career API. of each horse.
Then add the two figures together...
Example:

<pre>
Choose $3,647.50 $2,400.00 3.12
Quickwyn $1,620.21 $15,800.00 10.85
Selmoore Star $2,378.45 $1,100.00 2.07
Corporate Mystery$697.50 $ 900.00 1.76
Saint Pago $745.29 $ 800.00 1.58
Bletchley's Hero $927.50 $2,400.00 3.21
Oliuto $355.00 $1,800.00 5.31
</pre>
Saint Pago won and Quikwyn ran second

<pre>
Wild Flood $3,123.00 $7,000.00 7.04
Exbury Fair $1,682.50 $3,800.00 4.85
English Girl $ 580.00 $4,100.00 7.96
Liquid Honey $ 0.00 $ 0.00 0.00
No Bed Of Roses $ 0.00 $ 0.00 0.00
Oh So Blue $ 0.00 $ 0.00 0.00
Koninderie $ 366.67 $1,100.00 3.56
Even You $ 100.00 $ 200.00 2.15
Persian Copper $ 0.00 $ 0.00 0.00
</pre>

English Girl won paying $7.70 with Wild Flood and No Bed Of Roses running 2nd &
3rd
<pre>
Society Miss $5,630.42 $9,000.00 3.75
Irish Air $4,502.96 $1,800.00 2.12
Native American $2,025.30 $7,100.00 4.28
Chief Wild Eagle$3,463.00 $ 0.00 1.32
Damascus Road $2,052.70 $17,500.00 9.31
Bonzara $1,019.07 $7,000.00 7.26
Centagon $1,500.61 $2,600.00 2.31
Gala Boy $3,439.38 $9,500.00 4.08
I Knew $1,280.00 $1,000.00 1.27
Merry Minka $1,262.83 $0.00 0.48

</pre>

Native American won with Society Miss and Centagon running 2nd & 3rd.

Obviously there are other criteria you need to add to this, but it's a start.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-04-28 20:48 ]</font>

[Luckyboy]

Chrome Prince,

Thanks for your insight. I can understand your words, but I am lost with the numbers in what appears to be the 'third' column.

Maybe I am missing something you can explain simply.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[Chrome Prince]

On 2004-04-29 11:37, Luckyboy wrote:
Chrome Prince,

Thanks for your insight. I can understand your words, but I am lost with the numbers in what appears to be the 'third' column.

Maybe I am missing something you can explain simply.


Cheers,
Luckyboy


Sorry, I couldn't fit in all the columns to the page.

The third column is the result of the calculation below.

API/Average API of all horses in the race

PLUS

Last three starts API/ Horse career API



_________________
"The man who can correctly assess Class can have all the money he wants and he only needs a dollar to start". - Pittsburg Phil

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-04-29 12:09 ]</font>

[Mark]

Another method (maybe a bit long winded) is to divide the total prize money earned by the number of starts, times the win %, twice, (penalises the less consistent) divided by the weight given.
eg Lonhro in his last race...$5632510 divided by 34 starts = 165562 x 76% x 76% = 95629 divided by 58 = 1649. Grand Armee was 2nd pick on 317.
This method had Makybe Diva well in front in the Sydney Cup, & gave County Tyrone very little chance.

[puntz]

"divided by the weight given."

if given 55, and apprentice is -3,
is this to be considered ?

[Luckyboy]

Thanks for clearing that up CP.

Mark, that is an unusual approach. Do you use it regularly?

I believe there is a method that revolves around Avergae Prizemoney per Win, then ranked by Win %.

Does anyone know if this stat is kept online or in any publications?


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[Chrome Prince]

Luckboy,

I think if you use my scenario in conjunction with Mark's and run some trials you might be pleasantly surprised.

What both methods do is to identify class, recent form and consistency.
By using the last 3 API, you are dismissing horses whose career best is long gone and who are racing in the best class and form of their career.

I'll post more on this later, with some figures and converting this to odds as I have to go out now.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-04-29 13:37 ]</font>

[osulldj]

On 2004-04-28 17:19, Luckyboy wrote:

I am having real difficulty in coming up with a quick method for measuring the class of a horse.
Does such a thing exist?


Why all the focus on convoluted formulas? Its easy to fool yourself that you are doing something worthwhile and useful just because its based on some (apparently clever) mathematical calculation.

The easiest way to determine class and the class runners in the field is to glance through their form classify them based on the class of races each horse has won, been competitive in or failed. It takes about 20 seconds per horse to give you a feel...probably the same time or even less than it does to perform some of the calculations suggested.

The end result is a much more reliable indicator of what level each horse has won or been competitive in. That is something practical that can be used in form analysis rather than a number with a decimal point that doesn't really tell you much at all.

[Luckyboy]

osulldj,

All very true. I guess it is a case (for me) of looking for a quantitative assessment then qualifying it in the fashion you prescribe.

I am interested in 'class' as I feel this is an often overlooked area of a horse’s chance for the rank 'n' file of punters.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[Mark]

Puntz
Before app claim.

Lucky
Only now & then.

Dan
More than one way to skin a cat. Most of my profit comes without looking at form at all.

[La Mer]

[quote]
On 2004-04-29 13:46, osulldj wrote:
Why all the focus on convoluted formulas? Its easy to fool yourself that you are doing something worthwhile and useful just because its based on some (apparently clever) mathematical calculation.

The easiest way to determine class and the class runners in the field is to glance through their form classify them based on the class of races each horse has won, been competitive in or failed.

osulldj: Easier said than done is some instances - all OK when looking at the class issue in the group races, but no so easily done when considering those restricted entry type of race, for instance S/C1MW and S/CMWLY - can be very confusing for someone not at the same level of yourself in their understanding of the formguide.

I see nothing wrong with the formulas offered in response to the original request. If they work then it's worth the effort.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-04-29 18:52 ]</font>

[crash]

Strewth,

Never seen such contorted crap in my life.

Mathematical formulas to work out class [the forums full of accountants] ?

It only takes a couple of minutes to work out the varying class in a race without going near a calculator.

Counting grains of rice to arrive at a kilo works too, but so does a set of scales.

:smile:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-30 05:01 ]</font>

[coffee]

osulldj, I think that is a good way, but as La Mer said, "all OK when looking at the class issue in the group restricted entry type of races, but it's not as easy for some".

I think prize money is the best way to determine class...I usually look at the horses last run and match that prize money with todays race prize money. If today's prize money lower then last race prize money by atleast $10,000 then he is running a easer class race. Example: Todays race prize money $50,000 and last start prize money $150,000. I'm more confident about them if they ran a place last start or short margin, 4th and up position. Anyway thats what I do. Good luck guy's.

[Shaun]

Where is the best place on the net to find what the prize money of a race was worth.....most horse form does not show how much the race was worth that the horse competed in last time out.....forget those restricted events....the reson those horse are in them is because they are no bloody good and can't win in open company anyway

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-05-06 12:31 ]</font>

[La Mer]

[quote]
On 2004-04-30 09:56, puntz wrote:
A race which got my attention yesterday and I wish I had done some form but totally missed it, was Ballarat race 6.
5 won and paid $91.00 (NSWTAB)
Why then did number 5 win ?
Was it class, was it this,that or the other ?
How could anyone pick this "longshot" and how did the fav. go so low and did not win?
The contrasting difference in prices obviously made many punters think number 4 would win. Ultimately, was class a factor on that race ? Or was it hype that represented both the winners and the losers price ?

Puntz: Interesting post. Firstly, I don't think the original question was about picking a winner, more about establishing the class. Secondly, as a matter of interest, using the formula I posted the other day (plus a number of additional factors), then #2 Future Perfect was identified as the 'class' runner of the field. However, it should be added that this race rated poorly overall when considering the 'class' factor.

The winner rated second last re the 'class' factor.

BTW, this process is number crunched via my ratings program, taking about 10 seconds to determine.

[zorro]

Shaun,
Cyberhorse form includes the $ value of the race as part of each horse's past runs.
If you're only interested in a horse's last three runs you can get this for free by looking at the "current form" area on their site(virtualformguide.com)

[Luckyboy]

Hi All,

Well I am glad the question has stirred some good debate.

I did a little homework last night and came up with an interesting statistic that requires further investigation.

Taking Mark's idea off on a tangent, I went through two years of past winner data to find that approximately 78% of winners were both in the TOP 5 API and TOP 5 Place Percentage.

It seems to me at this stage that class may be distinguished by a horse's ability to consistently win 'good prize money'. This is something Mark alluded too.

Food for thought anyway. I'm off to do some more investigating.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[Chrome Prince]

Formulae have been knocked here by a couple of people, so my question is this...

How do you suppose that ratings are formulated and bookies prices?

If it didn't work (and a lot faster) then there would be a lot of people never sleeping.

Class will not determine the winner of every race, it's just a tool. You'll never pick the winner of a maiden or class 1 based on a class rating, but when it comes to the higher grade races, it's quite a useful tool.

The original question was how do you MEASURE class.

All measurements that have more than one point of measurement require some formula.

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-05-03 03:24 ]</font>

[La Mer]

Luckyboy: Just for the interest, the following are the horses I've identified as being the 'class' runners in the last seven races at Caulfield tomorrow (race 1 is a 2yo with unraced runners):

R2: Songs Of Vienna/Quantong (Eq)
R3: Rahtlin
R4: Studebaker
R5: Blessum***
R6: British Ensign (Highest)
R7: Modern Era
R8: Harley Ma

*** Just one change after the many scratchings - the very heavy track has not been considered.

Remembering these are not necessarily the top-rated horse just the identified 'class' of the field.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-05-01 09:45 ]</font>

[crash]

How to measure 'class' ?

The definition is a problem as class is rarely static, ex: Lohnro, a very classy horse who's 'class' was statically 'top class' throughout his career.

I believe that class is usually on the move, in either an upward direction due to ability etc, or a downward direction due to injury, age, over-racing, poor training, race placement etc.

Problems defining class arise when we use human equivalents for horses. With horses it is strictly $$$ winning ability that define class if we are to use it as a form factor.

Humans can be poor and have class or rich and have none at all, but never horses.

$$$ won I think would have to be the no. 1 class measurement as the greater the purse of a race the hotter the competition.

Time and weight just lead us back to $$$ won due to speed or weight carrying ability
Ditto for all measurements.

The older the horse the easier to work out it's class and vis-a-vis with young horses.

Average dollars earned per race usually sort out most class queries and the measure I generally use as a matter of ease. There are other more labor intensive or quicker computer program methods too. It's just a matter of choice rather than better/worse.

All other factors such as current form is another issue and handicapping factor along with many others and should be treated as such. What current form does tell us is the up/down direction of a hoses present 'class'.

A definitive 'class' factor [what some here are eluding too and trying to measure I think] can never be nailed to a horses backside. In most cases a horses class remains partially elusive due to it being always on the move.

Selecting a winner of a particular race is never just a matter of sorting out the class factor [although sometimes it is when faced with a class standout], but on the whole winners come from the better class runners.

Which one is the ongoing dilemma.

Cheers.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-05-01 08:32 ]</font>

[Shaun]

On 2004-04-30 12:55, Luckyboy wrote:
Hi All,

Well I am glad the question has stirred some good debate.

I did a little homework last night and came up with an interesting statistic that requires further investigation.

Taking Mark's idea off on a tangent, I went through two years of past winner data to find that approximately 78% of winners were both in the TOP 5 API and TOP 5 Place Percentage.

It seems to me at this stage that class may be distinguished by a horse's ability to consistently win 'good prize money'. This is something Mark alluded too.

Food for thought anyway. I'm off to do some more investigating.


Cheers,
Luckyboy



that statement cancels itself out a horse that wins more races is going to have the highest prizemoney....maybe if they stick with lower class races there might be a difference......but these days there are so many bonus schemes i think bonuses should be left out of prize money won

[davez]

having spent much time & effort trying to determine the "class" runner of any given race the best i could come up with was -

a chart for each state (vic,nsw,qld) which ranks races from lowest to highest class & within that sub classes based on the day of the week & prizemoney value of the race.

from there any given race can be quickly analysed based on the runners last few starts.

however they are of little assistance when it comes down to the real factors which influence the outcome of a race - those being -

1. the horse himself (fit & happy?)
2. the pygmy sitting on top (tired & hungry?)
3. luck (good or bad)

develop a formula to rate those & happy day are here!

[coffee]

davez,
Davez...that chart for each state which
ranks races from lowest to highest class! I have been after something like that for ages, but could never obtain it...I even asked the Sydney Jockey club and they couldn't help me get it. I tried to develop my own, but without the experience in class, when you look at all the classes there are, it becomes confusing. I was just wondering would you be willing to e-mail it to me...if it's no trouble. I would appreciate it. Thanks mate.

law1mall@hotmail.com

[La Mer]

[quote]
On 2004-05-02 11:28, coffee wrote:
davez,
Davez...that chart for each state which
ranks races from lowest to highest class! I have been after something like that for ages, but could never obtain it...I even asked the Sydney Jockey club and they couldn't help me get it. I tried to develop my own, but without the experience in class, when you look at all the classes there are, it becomes confusing. I was just wondering would you be willing to e-mail it to me...if it's no trouble. I would appreciate it. Thanks mate.

Coffee, go to the following sites, all the info you need.

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/raceinfo/handicap/handicap.htm

http://www.racingnsw.com.au/page.asp?parm=han.main

[coffee]

La Mer,

Thanks mate, I'll check it out.

[puntz]

Thanks La Mer,
that info. answers many questions.

[davez]

On 2004-05-02 11:28, coffee wrote:
davez,
Davez...that chart for each state which
ranks races from lowest to highest class! I have been after something like that for ages, but could never obtain it...I even asked the Sydney Jockey club and they couldn't help me get it. I tried to develop my own, but without the experience in class, when you look at all the classes there are, it becomes confusing. I was just wondering would you be willing to e-mail it to me...if it's no trouble. I would appreciate it. Thanks mate.

law1mall@hotmail.com





the sites la mer has provided are your starting point - copy the info into a spreadsheet & start tweaking!