Super 12s Week 12

[Mr J]

Only bothered to do 4 of the 6 matches so far basically because these are the matches that decide who will make the top 4.

Chiefs-Brumbies 27-30.
Blues-Highlanders 27-21.
Reds-NSW 27-22.
Sharks-Stormers 26-26.

How I think these games will affect the top 4.

First scoreline says a close game. All the chiefs need to secure a top 4 spot is 1 bonus point.

Blues will need several results to go their way (like NSW). Scenarios for the Blues:

Blues pick up 5 points:
Need NSW to pick up 4 or less. Need either the stormers to pick up 4 or less and the chiefs to not get any points.

Blues pick up 4 points:
Need NSW and stormers to lose. The blues really need 5 points here.

Solid defence vs the best attacking side (potentially). Should be a good watch. Also interesting that the last time the blues beat the highlanders was back in 2000.

Reds-NSW. Not sure which way the bookies will lean, but I doubt the line will be any greater than -1.5. The reds may be the fave thanks to NSW losing on sat, the reds successful SA road trip and the fact that NSW has never beaten the reds in super 12 history. These are the scenario's for NSW:

NSW picks up 5 points:
If the stormers pick up 4 or less points, NSW is in. If the stormers get 5, they must rely on the chiefs not picking up a single bonus point.

NSW picks up 4 points:
Must rely on stormers losing, and for the blues to not pick up 5 points. NSW really needs 5 points here.

Stormers:
Sitting in 4th, but definately not comfortably. Scenario's for stormers:

Stormers get 5 points, they secure a top 4 spot.

Stormers get 4 points, they'll need NSW to pick up less than 5 points.

The highlanders and sharks need to win, and have NSW, the blues and the stormers to all lose.

Outside the top 4, NSW has the best chance (thanks to their F/A). I think they'll get up against the reds, maybe the full 5. Last week will be hurting them (matt burkes kick summed the game up, so many opportunities that weren't taken), and they'll be looking to hit back hard. NSW have never beaten the reds, but nothing lasts forever. Come on NSW.

I think the stormers will win so it'll all probally come down to whether the chiefs pick up a bonus point.

Close season, 8 teams still in the running with only 2 of them securing a top 4.

[sportznut]

Clear as mud Mr J! :grin:

Isn't it great to have so many possible scenarios going into the last round. It often seems to come down to NSW having to beat Qld to make the finals and they've never been able to do it. I'd like to see 2 Aussie teams in the semis, but I'd also LOVE to see Qld keep that undefeated run going. It promises to be a great game. It will be a big crowd and a wonderful atmosphere at Lang Park.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-03 19:40 ]</font>

[Squirter]

G'day Mr J,

The Crusaders No.8 Tuiali'i got 3 weeks for his head-but so that puts him out for the S12. This address on about Thursday will give most of the INS and OUTS for this week-ends games...www.stuff.co.nz/sport

I'm sorry ole mate but I think, ( always a good battle) the Reds will pound the little botties of the Waratahs and this will enable the Blues to sneek in.

Beer O'clock.

[Desi]

Mr J/ Squirter/ Sports,
What a great weekend of rugby to look forward to.

I am not sure that the Chiefs can score the 4 tries against the Brumbies but their defence and forward pack is much more organised than the Hurricanes and they have a solid pair of halves...it will be close and that may be enough to give them the point...a big crowd and heaps of motivation could get them there!

Blues can score tries and the Highlanders defence is not good...but they proved me wrong against the Warratahs...another great match up...a full strength Blues side would have waltzed in here! Predict a Blues victory-they will get the 4 tries- but not sure how much they will win by...does that matter? Forgot how the points are allocated here.

Reds v NSW are always great battles and this is going to be a cracker! I think Warratahs will have to get off to a big start to score the 4 tries and to win. If they don't- history will record another Queensland victory and personally, its the Reds for me this weekend (but thats a heart call not a head one).

Sharks and Stormers will be another close contest but will be a high scoring affair. Not sure who will win (the Stormers have everything to play for) but if the Sharks regain their earlier S12 form...they can take it.

Have to start the gardening early this week and be a good boy! Will hopefully be stuck in front of the TV for 3 days with the EMU cans and anything else that will add to the enjoyment like more EMU cans LOL! Good luck!

[Squirter]

Oi Desi,

Haven't had any 'EXPORT' since I left THORNIE in '84. Our Supermarkets stock every other sort of mothers-milk and some ya have to strain thru an old sock....had some SWAN a few years ago just to remind me there is a better one from WA. Now then Footie....things are getting very serious here as the All Black trials are in about 4 or 5 weeks time and the fringe players have to start firing in front of the selectors. There are a few juicy match-ups and fringe players in the BLUES-HIGHLANDERS game, too many to mention here. For the HIGHLANDERS this is the Gordon Hunter Memorial game so they won't be there to make up the numbers. The BLUES as a unit are starting to show us the form of last year and hopefully the weather man will give us a dry paddock for the BLUES by 12. If wet and a forward slug-out christ knows, thats why I'm sweating on the REDS thumping the WARATAHS. ( sorry Mr J )

CRUSADERS-HURRICANES, a country mile seperate these two.

CHIEFS-BRUMBIES, This is the game for me this week-end. The CHIEFS forward pack is probably the most physical of the S12. You would have noticed over the series the forwards are hunting as a pack and not too many of them swanning around in the back line stuffing things up and this is the reason they are getting more ball with the No.10 poking the ball into the corners. The game plan will be fairly basic starving the class that the BRUMBIES have all over the paddock which will rattle 'em a little allowing the CHIEFS ta grab their bushy tails and belt 'em up against a goal post. It appears Lowen will be back and Robinson still a little doubtful, CHIEFS by 8.

STORMERS-SHARKS, things starting to hot up in SA rugby. BOK trials and new controversial coach I think you'll see the SHARKS regain their earlier form and take this one by 10.

You know fellas, I can't wait to see this once proud rugby nation regain the form that they held for decades, then we'll see some real spice injected into the S12, Tri-nations, and Test match rugby, and they will, just like you Aussies came out of the doldrums in the early 80's.

If you are wondering, the No.8 playing for the CHIEFS, Lauaki, it's his brother playing for the WARRIORS.

[Desi]

Squirter,
Sometimes have to gurgle a couple of Swan Draught (Super)stubbies to warm the throat for the EMU after a long day hiding from the sun till the first game!

Agree with your sentiments regarding SA rugby...they now have talent coming thru their ranks and the size and experience to become a great rugby nation again. The only issue I have is their coaching and administration...although there are some good ones coming thru (Stormers and Sharks for instance. Aussie's rise to the top was well supported by its strong administration and quality coaching staff (left NZ for dead)...

Reckon Lauaki's league bro is potentially not as good as him...he will go all the way!

[Squirter]

Desi,

You can lay the blame on your rise in rugby union on the NZRFU when in about late 60's or early 70's SA got booted out of International Rugby and we had no else to play so sent masses of Provincial teams to Aussie as well as the AB's. I personally had 3 trips. Aussie now certainly has excellent administration I'll give you that. Over recent times our problem has been the NZRFU, not the selector-coaches who are as good as any and better than most, they can only work with what they are given. There is another problem with our football, and in both codes, they are both chock full of Polynesian players who lack the mental toughness required. Check out the Warriors when they had Campion, Death, and a couple of other hard-headed Aussies whos names slip me....they rose to the top...look where they are now with no hard-heads....the talk now is they are going after more hard-headed Aussies.

Lauaki, the raw talent is there I suppose but not a hell of a lot between the ears as yet....if it develops he could be a good one.

Go and pull out some more weeds mate.

[Mr J]

I think the top 4 will stay as it is. I see the chiefs getting a bonus point, stormers winning, nsw edging out the reds and the blues scoring 4+ tries.

All really comes down to the stormers game. If the stormers win only NSW has a chance (brumbies would have to beat chiefs by more than 7 and NSW would have to score 4).

If the stormers lose the a number of teams have a chance.

I'll go against history, NSW will get the 5 points. Blues will pick up 5 points but will get done on the F/A, stormers will win, but only pick up 4 points allowing NSW to sneak in. This is more what I want to happen, but I also think it's the most likely scenario.

Sure, games against the reds are usually low scoring, but I think this one will open up. I see NSW scoring 5 tries to the reds 3.

Now I'd REALLY love the sharks to sneak in to the top 4, remember I have them at 150.00.

[Desi]

Squirt,
Time for my rave...

From what I have seen, everyone has been affected by the tough transition to professional sports...there has been lots said about the comeback ability of the Wallabies under Eales but you would have to say that the ABs blew it under pressure during the reign of the golden team...Toutai Kefu didnt seem to have any problems playing right to the end for the Wallabies...

What about St George's similar issues with some of its players feeling the pressure?
Also think that there is a lot of mollycoddling of youngsters nowadays...I think the players of old (Wallabies/ Kangaroos/Kiwis and ABs) would have a lot to say about the soft underbelly of present football teams- and that includes past polynesian players (I suspect)...

Anderson should be trying to unravel why is it that there are players like Seuseu and Betham who seem to possess that mental toughness and then you have guys like Ali and Topi who have struggled to retain the good form of last year...why did Anderson get rid of Campion (and Cleary for that matter)! Maybe he overestimated the playing ability of his young players and underestimated the value of having experienced ones like Campion but thats just a guess...and why is it that guys like Kearney and Galuvao leave the club and go on to become better, competitive footballers at their respective Aussie clubs?

Maybe it is not mental toughness....maybe a lot of these young men struggle to understand and come to terms with personal responsibility...they get paid a lot of money and therefore they should behave and play to a high standard consistently and if they don't the coach or club should get rid of them...they are not boys any more...

That is why I like the soccer stage where managers and players are definitely overpaid but if you dont perform they shift you out or you sit on the bench...the cutthroat world of the biggest sport in the world leaves all the others for dead...except maybe USA sports.

Now where did I put those shears?

[Squirter]

WOTS HAPPENING !!!!

CRUSADERS, OUT..Marshall, Mauger, Tuiali'i and Hamilton. IN. Nutbrown (sounds like beer eh ) Laulala, Broomhall and Blair. Not that we need to worry too much about this game I think...they're a country mile ahead of the 'CANES.

BLUES, so far..Rococoko back. They never seem to post their team much before Friday night by that time I'm in Hamilton.

CHIEFS, Full team to-morrow night.

Thats about it...Bed O'clock.

[sportznut]

Lines from TAB Sportsbet:

HURRICANES (+11.5 Pts) VS CRUSADERS (-11.5 Pts)
CHIEFS (+6.5 Pts) VS BRUMBIES (-6.5 Pts)
BLUES (-8.5 Pts) VS HIGHLANDERS (+8.5 Pts)
REDS (+4.5 Pts) VS WARATAHS (-4.5 Pts)
BULLS (-9.5 Pts) VS CATS (+9.5 Pts)
SHARKS (+2.5 Pts) VS STORMERS (-2.5 Pts)

I'm sure the Reds will be delighted at being made the underdog in that game! :smile:

[Mr J]

wow 4 home dogs this wkend.

[Mr J]

Updated my system, it's fully automatic now, although I'm not bothering with scores anymore, just the spread. Scores are useless since totals aren't bettable.

Anyway here are my spreads rounded to closest half point.

Hurricanes-Crusasders Ev
Chiefs-Brumbies +3.5
Blues-Highlanders -6.5
Reds-NSW -7.5
Bulls-Cats -4
Sharks-Stormers Ev

Only spread I've changed is reds vs nsw (was 5, I triple checked and it's definately 7.5, score I got was 29-22 not 27-22).

What is really amazing is that there are 2 matches that my system says are even. It's only said that 4 times before (of which one was a draw).

Spread available that I'd bet are:
Hurricanes +11.5
Chiefs +6.5
Highlanders +11
Reds +4.5
Cats +12
Sharks +2.5

ALL DOGS!!!!

Anyone noticed teams are mainly playing their fellow countrymen this wkend? I guess it makes for easier tri-nations selections.

[Squirter]

G'day you fellas,

Not good for the chiefs, Kelleher could be ruled out thru injury, Lowen still in doubt but at least Robinson starts. Heres hoping for some bloody good footie, and, busting me neck to see the Reds and Waratahs do battle.

[Desi]

Squirt,
Reckon it will be difficult for the Chiefs to do without Lowen and Kelleher...the Brumbies backline (and Smith and Paul) will relish the opportunity to run through the small centre pairing of Ranby and Maisie...I have said in the past that Maisie lacks the experience and apparent (esp. defensive) skills at this level. Hope he gives it his all for the sake of the BOP crowd.. Kelleher has been playing well and his contribution has been important to the Chiefs cause. Johnno Gibbs and his forwards will be fired up for this one (great news about Robinson) and it will be a intense battle up front...do you know who's playing at first five?

[Squirter]

Desi,

No.10 is Glen Jackson. There is still an outside chance for Lowen and Kelleher but I don't like starting 1/2 fit men as they tend to break down early stuffing up a pattern. In place of Kelleher will be Isaac Boss, and there is nothing wrong with this snipey little B either.

They are starting Bates at No.6 specifically for this game as he tends to be a little bit quicker around the paddock. Ormond goes to the bench and Robinson goes to N0.7.

I see John Mitchell having a rave about their chances and this in turn has got some dickheads in the Waikato thinking the Brumbies are going to lay down and die....I've never seen an Aussie lay down an die without a fight yet. As long as they can secure a bonus point I'll be happy and if the Waratahs win then Mr J'll be happy and we'll all have a bloody good week-end.

Gotta goan get a beer.

[Squirter]

Desi A though,

Are you originally from the BOP.

[Desi]

Squirter,
From the BOP...Waihi Beach mate...have a son there still (in Katikati with the missus' Grandparents)...go the Chiefs!

Hope they get the point Squirter and sorry Mr J, but I reckon the Reds this weekend LOL!

[sportznut]

Well, the Brumbies will be thanking the Hurricanes big time! Now they are pretty much assured of top spot and must surely be favourited to take the title.

[Squirter]

Who said I know what I'm talking about.... bloody useless eh !!!!

Anyway, if the CHIEFS win tomorrow that will give them a home semi. Watch a bit of League.

[Mr J]

"Not that we need to worry too much about this game I think...they're a country mile ahead of the 'CANES."

Well I guess I'm the only one who thought 'canes would be very competitive (my system rated canes as the faves, by
-.22 points, so +11.5 was a steal). BTW, no home team should be +11.5 that is just rediculous.

[sportznut]

Yeah, I had a small bet on them purely because they were a 'Home Dog'. I must admit that I didn't really think they would go as well as they did though! :smile:

[Squirter]

Well,

Yesterday is now today and I've got a clear head so I'm gunna shut me mouth....TILL AFTER THE GAME'S

Weather. Warm and dry both places, what about Lang Park Sportz ?

[sportznut]

Lang Park.... pretty damn cold and damp if you're a Waratahs player!!! :grin:

Sorry Mr J, but it's great to see the Reds keep that undefeated run intact. Anyway, the semi finalists are decided and it's Brumbies/Stormers and Crusaders/Chiefs.

Don't know what happened between the Bulls and the Cats!!! :eek:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-09 06:52 ]</font>

On 2004-05-08 09:15, sportznut wrote:
Yeah, I had a small bet on them purely because they were a 'Home Dog'. I must admit that I didn't really think they would go as well as they did though! :smile:


Geez we think alike sportnutz that old 'Home Dog' system shines again :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Unlucky Phil on 2004-05-09 07:40 ]</font>

[Desi]

Go the Reds, (sorry Mr J) just love the local derbies mate! Some great picks Mr J and Sports...home doggies did well all right!

I think the Stormers travel to Crusader country dont they? Anyway, everyone should be feeling a little more comfortable the Blues are out cos they were starting to look ominous with some of their established players hitting form at the right time...Tri series should be a beauty!

[Mr J]

4-2 for me this weekend. It's a real shame my system was right about the reds :sad:
NSW wouldn't have made it anyway, with the stormers picking up the 5 points and chiefs getting the bonus point.

Yep home dogs are the best bets in sports. Great trend to build a system on.

I can't believe I've had bets on EVERY game. I guess the super 12s betting market is really that inefficient. Anyway that takes my system to 51-15 this year.

Now super 12s is pretty much over I think I'll try and adapt the system to the NRL and AFL.

How do you guys rate the importance of home ground advantages in those 2 sports (esp AFL thanks to the travelling)?

Do any of you guys know a good site with NRL records for the previous 2-3 years? I don't think I'll need as many season due to the season being longer...

Anyway sportz where is your record at? Home dogs have done VERY well this year so I'm thinking you made a killing too :wink:

[sportznut]

Mr J,

Betting on S12 has been incredible! This year, using TAB Sportsbet's prices, my Home Dog line betting system has gone 14-1. AMAZING!!! I hope some of you followed the system after I outlined the rules on here 2 months ago, because since that time it has gone 11-1. I kept thinking the run must stop but it never did.

In my system, I don't actually include games between 2 S.African teams or 2 NZ teams, but home dogs have done okay in those matches as well.

I made a mistake with those Semi finals next week. It will be Crusaders vs Stormers and Brumbies vs Chiefs. I must have got the 3rd and 4th finishing positions wrong.

With NRL and AFL stats, try these sites Mr J. They might have what you want:

For Rugby League:
http://stats.rleague.com/rl/rl_index.html
http://www.ozleague.com/statshq.asp

For Australian Rules:
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/afl_index.html
http://www.allthestats.com/
http://www.oztips.com/League.asp?l=AFL

If you like, I can explain all the different teams and which ones have the best home ground advantages and so on, but seeing how well you've done formulating a S12 system, I think you should be able to do something similar with NRL and AFL. :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-10 08:21 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Well I'm getting started...

Have to admit the S12 teams being divided into 3 countries made things quicker.

You know the thing I hate? Writing down all the stats and testing it against a previous season. I'll have to get the lines for the '01 season since I'm using '02+ info.

How much difficult is the NRL to beat than the Super 12s? If my system works I don't expect it to be as profitable.

[Desi]

Mr J,
Goldmember has provided interesting background info regarding previous history of matches between teams this year...for AFL and NRL...

Last weekend in the NRL for instance, Manly Sea Eagles and Newcastle Knights won at home against highly fancied Dragons and Bulldog outfits...so they are 2 homedog results...not sure about the larger (neutral?) stadium though..how that works?

AFL, I have not been successful so can not assist but there are always upsets between favourites and lesser teams (last weekend being a classic!)

Good luck in getting it together Mr J...reckon that S12 is such a unique situation in sport given the results though!

[Mr J]

I think all it will take is time. Once I have the stats I need for each team written down I think it's only a matter of time. Great thing about oddsmakers is that they don't have the time that some of us punters have. They also don't have the advantage of choosing which games they take action on. I'll be testing against TAB lines, so if I can beat those then I'm doing great.

I'd really like to be able to develop a system that is profitable on every game (like in S12), but I'm probally gonna have to just select a couple each week.

[Squirter]

Mr J,

I see where there could be another 3 teams in tha S.12.

1 from Japan, 1 from Aussie and 1 from the P I's and they are also talking about Argentina....ya might have some more work for youself yet.