AFL round 7

[goldmember]

W/BULLDOGS v ESSENDON

w/bulldogs have 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 10 games against essendon, with the last 6 being played at docklands, w/bulldogs having 1 win and 1 draw

last 4 games:
2001 R14 ESSENDON 154-76 @ DOCKLANDS
2002 R14 DRAW 118-118 @ DOCKLANDS
2003 R 4 ESSENDON 129-110 @ DOCKLANDS
2003 R19 ESSENDON 147-80 @ DOCKLANDS

CARLTON v COLLINGWOOD

carlton have won 6 of their last 11 games against collingwood

last 4 games:
2002 R 3 CARLTON 75-55 @ M.C.G
2002 R18 COLLINGWOOD 141-33 @ M.C.G
2003 R 2 COLLINGWOOD 107-91 @ M.C.G
2003 R17 COLLINGWOOD 135-62 @ M.C.G

FREEMANTLE v ST KILDA

freemantle have won 7/11 against st kilda, with 5/7 at subiaco

last 4 games:
2001 R12 ST KILDA 90-80 @ SUBIACO
2002 R 2 FREEMANTLE 76-73 @ SUBIACO
2002 R17 ST KILDA 118-79 @ PRINCESS PK
2003 R 8 FREEMANTLE 123-82 @ SUBIACO

KANGAROOS v BRIS LIONS

the kangaroos have 6 wins and 1 draw from 12 games against the lions, with only 3 games being played at docklands resulting in 1 win each and a draw. kangaroos have not beaten the lions 2000.

last 4 games:
2001 R17 BRIS LIONS 136-115 @ DOCKLANDS
2002 R12 BRIS LIONS 138-123 @ GABBA
2003 R 3 DRAW 109-109 @ DOCKLANDS
2003 R18 BRIS LIONS 137-83 @ GABBA

PT ADEL v ADELAIDE

pt adel have won 10/14 against adelaide,winning the last 7 straight.

last 4 games:
2002 R 5 PT ADEL 90-82 @ FOOTBALL PK
2002 R20 PT ADEL 84-76 @ FOOTBALL PK
2003 R 5 PT ADEL 78-66 @ FOOTBALL PK
2003 R22 PT ADEL 94-78 @ FOOTBALL PK

SWANS v RICHMOND

swans have won 8 of their last 12 games against richmond, with 4/5 at the S.C.G, the last being a loss by 6 pts in 2000.

last 4 games:
2001 R12 RICHMOND 86-60 @ DOCKLANDS
2002 R 7 RICHMOND 88-82 @ DOCKLANDS
2002 R22 SWANS 116-76 @ STADIUM AUST.
2003 R10 SWANS 104-72 @ M.C.G

MELBOURNE v W/COAST

melb and w/coast have 5 wins each from their last 10 clashes. melb have lost their last 4 games against w/coast at the M.C.G, with their last win there was in 1993.

last 4 games:
2002 R 4 MELB 137-103 @ PRINCESS PK
2002 R19 MELB 106-100 @ SUBIACO
2003 R 6 W/COAST 127-94 @ M.C.G
2003 R21 W/COAST 143-91 @ SUBIACO

HAWTHORN v GEELONG

hawthorn and geelong have met 4 times at docklands,winning 2 each. hawthorn had won their last 5 encounters before that.

last 4 games:
2001 R11 GEELONG 93-90 @ DOCKLANDS
2002 R 7 HAWTHORN 130-78 @ M.C.G
2002 R22 HAWTHORN 75-57 @ DOCKLANDS
2003 R 9 GEELONG 109-75 @ DOCKLANDS

cheers

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-04 18:59 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-04 19:24 ]</font>

[goldmember]

desi, what is the thinking over there on freemantle/ st kilda match,do you think they will win . I watched both of them play last week and i just do'nt know wich way to go. saints are flying and hammil is back, but freemantle's record over there against them is very strong.

[Floydyboy]

OK Ill stick my neck out and say that my guts tells me that St Kilda are real good value @$2.50 and even better value to win by less than 24.5 margin bet @$4.30

[Desi]

Gold,
Yes, Freo has had the wood on the Saints in the past but it will be a close call...but the feeling is that the Dockers are starting to show some maturity and this week have a second 'home' game in a row, so will be fresh and ready to go.

This will be a real test for both sides and Saints will need Hamill cos the Dockers will be putting on the pressure on from the start and have shown that (unlike previous seasons) they can finish strongly as well.

There has been a bit of rain overnight but the ground should be good...its going to be a cracker! Dockers by 8 points.!

[sportznut]

On 2004-05-08 11:07, Floydyboy wrote:
OK Ill stick my neck out and say that my guts tells me that St Kilda are real good value @$2.50 and even better value to win by less than 24.5 margin bet @$4.30



Good tip Floydyboy. Did you end up going with your 'gut' feeling???

Personally, I don't really like those kinds of margin bets however. I mean, it was really only a last quarter Fremantle surge which brought the winning margin under 24.5 points. It would have been a shame to correctly tip the winner but still lose!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-08 19:54 ]</font>

On 2004-05-08 11:07, Floydyboy wrote:
OK Ill stick my neck out and say that my guts tells me that St Kilda are real good value @$2.50 and even better value to win by less than 24.5 margin bet @$4.30


Yes a really good tip Floydyboy. Personally, I really DO like those kinds of margin bets. It really tests one's skills. To be able to collect that additional profit is the bonus. Again, a really good tip Floydyboy.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Unlucky Phil on 2004-05-09 08:56 ]</font>

[Desi]

Geez, I should have followed you guys tip but hey, cant bet against the Dockers...Sports, you picked the Saints (and the Bombers) earlier this year and so far you have been spot on! Very quiet and disappointed supporters yesterday but thats footie!

[moeee]

HEY !

Where's my congratulations?.

Didn't you'se read my posts under TO BET OR NOT TO BET - AND HOW MUCH?.

[sportznut]

Yeah, well tipped Moeee!

Desi, bad luck about the Dockers, but they're a good team and I'm sure they'll be right there at finals time.

I really don't know why some people keep doubting the Saints. They are the real deal. I still can't believe I got $1.80 on them simply making the 8 this year. I'm just kicking myself that I didn't back them then at $15 to win the premiership. I did have a small bet later at $8 though. My other pre-season bets for the 8 were Fremantle at $1.85 (looking good) and West Coast at $1.57 (looking shaky). Then after Essendon started with two losses, they got out to $1.60 for the 8 so I backed them as well. I also had a bet on Port Adelaide at $1.65 to finish above Adelaide on the ladder. Despite last night's result, that bet's still looking okay.

Did anybody else have any pre-season bets and if so, how are they going?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-09 16:13 ]</font>

[moeee]

Thank you Sportznut.

I had a bet on Kangaroos to make the 8 at evens after 3 straight wins.Bye-bye.

I also took the Saints for the top 4 at $2.40
and again at $1.85.
Got $5.50 for the premiership and a week later took the $4.50.
Been playing 'round with numbers lately,as you do,and think I have got the mathematics right.
For those interested,this is the formula I use.
Once you've come up with what you think will be the winning margin,you do this.

Price=0.95^margin+1

So if you thought St.Kilda woud beat Fremantle by 17 points -
0.955^17+1 = .457 + 1 = $1.46

Fremantle would be -
0.955^-17 = 1/0.955^17 +1 = 2.187+1 =$3.19

The 0.955 is a value that I am using.
If some-one knows a more correct constant to use,maybe let on.

[Floydyboy]

My formula goes something like this;
St Kilda ..They beat Lions last week and a rippa 4th quarter at that..
Now heres the crucial part
.. They're paying 2.50 ....and 4.30 on the margin ...My brain says Jeezus guts i gotta have a bit of that and my guts says yep so i have 50 a win and 20 on the margin
Sorry champ ive got no idea what the figures mean^ no disrespect meant just being lightheaerted had a fairly good weekend
Hope the rest of you did as well its nice to right occassionally

[moeee]

For clarities sake,I have converted my earlier formula into English because it is very useful for those that are in it to win it.

Once you've decided how much the team will win by,do this.

Price = 0.955 to the power of the margin plus one.

And the only reason punters win,regardless of selection methods,is they are getting overs.
Not necessarily (how do you spell that?)on an event,but over time.

[Desi]

Yes, apologies Moeee, good call with the Saints...they are definitely a good team and unfortunately, I'm always laying off against them...

My AFL picking has been bloody ordinary but there are definitely lots of opportunities ot make money from solid bets in this game in comparison with other sports...

Good luck with the handicapping and punting!