Horses to Follow

[Shaun]

I have been trying out a new plan of attack to try and get some of my cash back from the bookies....what i am doing is selecting some horses that i think will win eventually backing them from a spell or or atleast no wins from a spell....i am trying to get back a set profit plus any incurred bets along the way...so far thing are a little slow as i refine the selection method i will post the list of horses here and and when one is racing i will post....lets see how things go
this is my list i have been backing all these horses i will update this list as i make changes

BIAGGIO
BRADSHAW
CLOCKWORK ORANGE
DELVECCHIO
KELLYSONG
POLAR SUCCESS
TINTAGEL
WAGER




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Shaun on 2004-05-08 22:02 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Shaun on 2004-05-22 12:20 ]</font>

[Shaun]

Delvecchio Sandown Race 08
Clockwork Orange Belmont Race 06

[ubetido]

Hi Shaun

There was a method i read about some time ago.

It was to follow an animal for 5 starts. They had there own way to identify there selection which i didnt go any further with.

However the staking was as follows:
1st start $5
2nd.......$10
3rd.......$15
4th.......$20
5th.......$25

The concept was that from the stable of horses they targetted a win would result in five starts with any one of the horses.


regards
ubetido

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: ubetido on 2004-05-23 11:32 ]</font>

[crash]

Hi Shaun,

Tried this method for about six months using the AAP black book feature to remind me by e/m when the horses were running.

I lost heaps.

Cheers.

[topsy99]

i recall years ago declaring that the horse that won the hobartville was always a good horse.

this is one of my gripes with sydney racing over the years the winners of key races has become far less meaningful.

in fact the longevity of many horses success wise is not what it used to be either.
many are now one day wonders.
this type of system is hazardous due to the above.
biaggio is an example he is running on reputation only and wont be getting any of mine.
as becareful would say "becareful"

[Shaun]

Yes i can see where you guys are comeing from....isn't it amazing when trying to find these horse they look good....but like you say they are running on rep only....i am refineing the select process and the good thing is because i am backing to get a set profit plus losses i am not laying out to much...but i do need some winners to come in to make this work....this is the new selection process i have so far must be 3yo to 5yo with a 30%+ strike rate trained by one of the countries top 5 trainers.....i am thinking of upping this to 40% i am working on something else right now no won't be adding any of these horse for a little while untill i get some money back from the first set

[crash]

Rah Rah Shaun,

The filters I used for past runs where pretty good too [if only the future runs had been as good !].

Still, nothing like first hand experience. Go for it mate.

Cheers.

[crash]

Blimey, I'm repeating myself here [posted double, so did a scrub].

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-05-23 21:54 ]</font>

[Mr ed]

Recently on this forum there has been a thread on roulette and mentioned was how dangerous it was to bet against a run as it may last forever hypothetically. This is the risk punters take when they bet and increase their bet until they find a winner, to win a set profit. When it gets to the stage you have backed 10, 20, or 30 losers in a row your to win your initial set profit could be 1000000 to 1 on. Of course the punter would probably run out of funds before it gets to this stage, hence the system would collapse. The only way to beat the house is to pick your one spin and bet big, as applies to horseracing find your 'special' and have a go.

Cheers ED

[Shaun]

This is way different from roulette do numbers have form do numbers have a trainer do numbersd have ability do numbers have different prices for each spin....i don't think so...what is worse trying this system out or getting out of bed grabing the paper on the way to the tab and betting in every race

[Mr ed]

Shaun your talking about backing the same horse everytime it races you never mentioned that you wouldnt bet if that horse ran out of form or drew a bad barrier. Of course horseracing and roulette are vastly different but the principle behind my arguement was the same. You will probably be successful in making a profit for a period of time but when it comes to a stage where you pick a horse that has a run of losing for say 15 starts all the profits you made will be chewed up just like what happens if you consistently back a color in roulette to gain a set profit, eventually you will hit a run of the other color that will send you broke. However its your money not mine i'm just having my two cents worth.

Cheers Ed

[topsy99]

i guess what shaun is doing is counter to what most punters would try to do.
a senior mathematician did the numbers on black and red and his conclusion was that by incrementally betting black and red you will lose the amount that the game dictates what you should lose.

in the case with horses it is going against conventional wisdom as many variables come into play such as changes in class,form, barriers, jockeys, setting for races, tracks

also it has never been proven conclusively that punters can pick winners with any degree of certainty at any time letter alone playing russian roulette with a stable of horses.

not for me i'm afraid. even if our esteemed punter does come out in front is it a fluke or luck or good management.
i would leave out the last.

i know it is none of my business but it worries me when punters attempt to do things that put so much hard earned at risk without any research, statistics, knowledge, trust, etc.
best of luck

[kenchar]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-05-25 17:54 ]</font>

[Shaun]

Tell me this has there ever been a time that you backed a horse at each of it's start for what ever reason

[Mr ed]

Yes, but you are missing our point entirely. Take our Egyptian Raine for example, she is a super sprinting mare who has had seven starts this prep for no wins using her Unitab starting price for all these races to win a set profit of $100 you would have to invest. Rounding return to the nearest $1.00 for bet unit. Note these are approximations as my mathematics do not extend to this level

Race return bet Total loss
Lightning $4.00 $35 $35
Newmarket $7.00 $25 $60
Aust Stakes $6.00 $30 $90
T.J Smith $7.00 $30 $120
All Aged $11.00 $25 $145
Byrn Hart $3.00 $125 $280
Doom 10000 $5.00 $95 $375

These figures do not look to bad however
It would only take a few more loses at short odds to send this figure skyrocketing. And again reinforcing the point that Our Egyptian Raine may never win another race it is a risk i'm not willing to take.

Cheers Ed

[crash]

Nothing wrong with your idea Shaun.

The problem is selecting the runners to follow [where I also had problems].

Perhaps looking at promising 2yr. olds might be a better course to follow.

What you have selected are horses with good form behind them, not in front of them.

Biaggio has to come down in class and to 1100m. and has been up since Jan.

Bradshaw has won only 1 from 14 starts and that was 1 win from 9 starts last year.

The rest of your runners seem to going backward form wise too.

Can't see sense in following them but your idea is sound enough.

Sort out some [young] runners on the up and you should do OK.

Cheers.