Favourite Factors?

[Chrome Prince]

Hi all,

Wondering if anyone has done any analysis as to what are the important form factors that send out a horse favourite?

Obviously, if a horse won it's last start and is dropping in class, then these horses tend to start favourite or close to - but what about the others and the form factors which make the most in determining the starting price?

[puntz]

I tried that one a few times, to determine what makes a Fav. a Fav.

Since la Mer posted those URL's on the class and weights rules, I'm in a top spin about it again!
So here goes,

1.Public Opinion ?
2.Ratings according to those URL's and the ratings are converted to odds. Therefore the highest rated horse is Fav.
Thing is, same rated horses or closely rated often makes it harder to determine a true Fav.
I think this is where percentages come to play, and let's say there is a percentage margin between the 2 favs, bet or no bet.
That percentage margin being the risk factor
3. From your own ratings,convert to odds, and you have your own Fav.
Let's say your Fav. come to 2.50, but acording to public opinion it's actualy paying 4.50. and its 2nd Fav.
Publics Fav. is 2.50.
Do you trust your ratings and back your Fav., or have doupt and go with the flow?

Having asked what makes the Fav. is judgement and whatever else goes into this game.

Personaly, the horse that wins,no matter what the price, if it wins, it was the Fav.
We just did not identify it on the day if it won and was not the Fav.

[crash]

With respect Puntz, I think the favorite is 'the favored to win' by the majority of punters, not the actual winner which is another thing entirely.

The favorite SR is the best result that all punters collectively [represented by the prize pool] can deduce from ALL info. available to them by whatever means or methods.

The fact that this SR hasn't changed since the year dot[anyone with figures on that ?] is the most amazing thing. All the advances in collecting and analyzing race data hasn't changed the the SR since I don't know when [?].

That fact speaks volumes about how good previous generations where at selecting winners from scant basic race info. [a lot by carrier Pigeons too]. That fact raises some big questions regarding the actual value of a lot of the extra race variables and form facts available today.

Min. info.= 30% fav.overall SR. Max. info= 30% fav. overall SR [???]

Computer programs and aids for racing etc. have produced ease and time saving in collating info. but hasn't improved the average fav. SR overall. Individually sure, but not overall.

Any real 'evidence' [not just anecdotal] that computer technology has improved the SR of punters using them must be accompanied by evidence that those who don't use them are getting worse at selecting winners.

If computers have improved the Fav. SR % for computer owners, then the SR % of those punters who use manual form guide methods must correspondingly be declining for the average fav. SR to still be around 30% overall. I don't believe this is so as there is no evidence to support it.

Makes one think before lashing out on the next gee-whiz computer racing product with ridiculous SR and rags to riches claims.

Cheers.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-05-11 09:57 ]</font>

[puntz]

Crash,
after reading the handicapping pages,where it says something about, &quot;the handicapper may use his/her discretion to allocate weights&quot;, as well as the factual figures, is where we as punters are then infact taking on the handicappers &quot;opinion&quot;.
If let's say we all use the same basic rules to handcap a horse and assume it's class, then we as handicappers use our own discretion to, and that discretion differs from the official handicappers, we then make our own Fav.
The bookies make money on this aspect, and good on em.
But, back to the original question, I think CP is asking if there is a way to mechanicaly determine a true Fav?
I now don't think there is after reading the handicappers rules.

[crash]

Your right Puntzy, there is the bookies fav, our own personal fav. and the eventual market fav. based on prize pool.

The race 'fav.' is dependant and unique to every prize pool whether it is a prize pool of an SP Bookie operating from the boot of his car in the outback, or the various TAB's etc.

They might all agree as to eventual fav. in 95%+ of all their 'books', but the 'absolute' fav. would have been the horse who had the most on him from ALL sources. A bit meaningless really.

We make money on our 'fav.' when we are right and vis-a-vis for the Bookies and TAB whose fav. can end up being different, even among the bookies themselves.



Total prize pool [whoever's Book it is] is the only way to work out the race fav. before they jump. Just look at the price-board and the race fav. is plain as day even though it might shift to a different horse before they jump. The last price given decides which horse is the pre-race fav.

There is no other way.

Cheers.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-05-11 10:27 ]</font>

[Shaun]

CP asked what determines who goes out as fav....Talk thats what....when the clowns on the radio say this horse is the best and this horse is our selection and the other clowns in the peper all have it selected then the guy at the tab staters saying i was told about this good thing today that what makes them fav........but as you see not all fav should be fav and when you do you own form your own way and you cpme up with a different fav....are you right or wrong...at the end of the race is when you know.....and about computers makeing life easier well 20 years ago we didn't have to contend with 12 horse meeting on a saturday in every 2 horse town in the country....i still stick to to city tracks i don't even look elsewhere....i always say limit your races to make the best use of your money....u will never win backing in every race

[Luckyboy]

Chrome,

From my own analysis, I have found these factors to have a high correlation in successful favourites;

1. Top API (1 or 2 in ranking);
2. Top Place % (1 or 2 in ranking);
3. Last Start Winner.

It is when a pre-post favourite fails on one of these criteria that I get interested in a race.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[zorro]

CP,
If you're looking for factors, or combinations of factors that lead to false favourites (i.e. the 2 out of 3 that don't win) I can think of one immediately.
Horse ridden by top jockey and trained by high-profile trainer e.g. Oliver/Freedman in melbourne or "jumper"/Hawkes in sydney. They are nearly always over-bet relative to their true odds.

[Chrome Prince]

On 2004-05-11 13:27, Luckyboy wrote:
Chrome,

From my own analysis, I have found these factors to have a high correlation in successful favourites;

1. Top API (1 or 2 in ranking);
2. Top Place % (1 or 2 in ranking);
3. Last Start Winner.


Thanks Luckyboy and all contributors.
The above is more along the lines of what I was searching for.

I know it can be done mechanically because WA Tabform do it with a computer and are accurate enough for me.

I just wanted to know if anyone found a combination of two or three factors which resulted in at least 70% of the horses becoming favourite on the tote.

The false favourite is a little different argument.

Thanks guys.

[Luckyboy]

Chrome,

One other thing I have found concerns weight. It doesn't have as high a correlation as the other three factors, but still is something I look at:

1. If the horse is weighted above 57kgs, it should not be rising anymore than 2kgs from last start.

I my years of punting I have found that weight and barrier allocations are usually the factors that create the greatest value in 'class' horses.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[Chrome Prince]

Luckyboy,

Just did a quick check and of 6,383 favourites, only 2,140 were last start winners or roughly 33%.

However, taking the top 2 ranked API 3,644 started favourite or 57%.

But the problem is if you take the top 2 ranked API, you'd have 9,366 horses which weren't favourite.

If you combine the two, you only have 1,353 selections out of a possible 6,383 and 1,794 extra horses not favourite.

Guess I keep plugging away.

[Luckyboy]

Chrome,

You need to work through all three factors. The best correlation is between Top API and Top Place %.

Last start winner is the final filter.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Luckyboy on 2004-05-11 17:45 ]</font>