My value bets for the AFL

[moeee]

I have got Geelong for final-8
$1.65 ($2.60) $20

I have St.Kilda for premiership
$2.20 ($3.85) $15

I have St.Kilda to make grand final
$1.55 ($2.10) $20

Didn't find any value for round 8

[moeee]

AFL Round-9 goes like this.

Geelong final-8 ($1.40) $20 @ $2.10
Kangaroos final-8 ($1.75) $15 @ $2.75
St.Kilda premiers ($2.05) $15 @ $3.25

For the weekend I'm going a treble.
Port ($1.22) $1.48
Lions ($1.60) $2.15
Blues ($1.55) $1.80

My price ($3.00) Got $5.50

[sportznut]

So does that mean you backed St Kilda to win the GF last week, and you've backed them again this week? I generally make almost all of my futures bets pre-season and leave it at that. I may have a couple of extra bets during the season if I think certain teams are really good value, but I'd never thought of actually making futures bets every week.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-19 19:40 ]</font>

[Mr J]

For super 12s I did both. I had 4 futures preseason, and picked up futures on all but 2 other teams (crusaders and blues). All were percevied as value at the time. Result was I ended up a hell of a lot of profit over the last few weeks just hedging. I'm letting my $12.50 future on the brumbies ride though.

[moeee]

Yo Sportznut
If I had the willpower,I would be a strictly AFL punter.But the temptation gets the better of me.
If I could get someone to hold my hand I'm sure I could make a profit consistently every year.
So anyway,after every weekends games I analyze what happened.
I modify my ratings for each team and then calculate my prices for all forms of betting,AFL.
Then midweek I look at what prices are available and look for what I consider the biggest overs.
I try not to take less than 15% overlay and also try to limit to 3 bets.

St.Kilda for premiers,I have in fact backed 4 weeks running.I would say that by September,I will have backed them 15 times.

I also took Kangaroos at evens after they won 3 straight,then prepared to write off that ticket.Lo and behold they're back!.
I didn't fancy them last week at $4.50,but now the $2.75 looks just fine.
The game is on the field.Betting is no game.If you invest your hard earned you need to treat it as an investment,not a guess.
No room in gambling for hoping.

Mo.

[sportznut]

Mr J,

What if the Crusaders win? Does that mean you get nothing and make a BIG loss?

[sportznut]

On 2004-05-20 11:26, moeee wrote:
St.Kilda for premiers,I have in fact backed 4 weeks running.I would say that by September,I will have backed them 15 times.


That seems a little bit strange to me. I backed St Kilda at $8 earlier in the season. If I back them again now at $3.25 or something, I'm lessening the % profit and also making the potential loss greater if the Saints don't win. Anyway, I hope it works for you.

What's the highest price you've got on the Saints this year? I'm still kicking myself that I didn't back them at $15 back in February when I took them to make the 8 at $1.80.

[moeee]

Hey Sportznut,
Drifting off the post.
Answer your reply under Post "when to bet"

Mo.

[Mr J]

"What if the Crusaders win? Does that mean you get nothing and make a BIG loss?"

No. Just the 1 unit riding on the brumbies winning. All other futures were hedged in previous weeks to produce a profit no matter what happens. E.g, the 21.00 I had on the chiefs, I took X% of that potential payoff and bet on the brumbies. For the sharks at 150.00, I laid them over a few weeks and produced a VERY nice profit off them.

The brumbies future is basically a free bet, and it would cost me potential EV to hedge it since it's the fave. Course, I could use 1.00 of that 12.50 to back the crusaders and profit no matter what, but that's sacrificing EV for the sake of variance/distribution.



"I try not to take less than 15% overlay and also try to limit to 3 bets."

I'd like to point something out. Most of the time you think you have a large advantage (i.e. over 15%) you probally don't. It's usually smaller or not an edge at all (maybe you missed something the bookies didn't).

As long as you are more accurate than the bookies over time you should be betting anytime you think you have an advantage. If you want a buffer, I'd go lower than 15%, maybe 5%.


"If you invest your hard earned you need to treat it as an investment,not a guess.
No room in gambling for hoping."

Not sure if you're talking about yourself here or making a general statement???

[moeee]

[quote]
I'd like to point something out. Most of the time you think you have a large advantage (i.e. over 15%) you probally don't. It's usually smaller or not an edge at all (maybe you missed something the bookies didn't).

Mr.J Do you know what I am doing when I make a bet?
I am saying to the bookie,"Iknow more than you about this event,and here's my money to prove it".
If I'm inaccurate to the degree of more than 15% then I would be better off playing tiddlywinks with my children.
This 15% is my buffer.If I'm 10% wrong I still profit over time.
My idea is maybe the bookie missed something that I didn't.


"If you invest your hard earned you need to treat it as an investment,not a guess.
No room in gambling for hoping."

Not sure if you're talking about yourself here or making a general statement???

Free advice is all.
Cheers - Mo.

[goldmember]

How do call pt adel value @ $1.48 after one of their most deplorable games since entering the comp,i know there home this week and i think they might win, but their no value at that price and i would never back carlton at odds on either, hope they win for you but i'll be staying clear of those teams

cheers

[moeee]

On 2004-05-21 12:27, goldmember wrote:
How do call pt adel value @ $1.48 after one of their most deplorable games since entering the comp,i know there home this week and i think they might win, but their no value at that price and i would never back carlton at odds on either, hope they win for you but i'll be staying clear of those teams

cheers


Sorry Goldmember,but I managed to reply to you under the post,(afl round 9).
Actually it's probably a more appropriate place for it.

Cheers Mo.

[goldmember]

Thats ok mo,i just put the H2H stats up for people to view as a guide, but i wouldn't back them all the time, as i watch most games and sometimes i do'nt agree with them either , its up to the individual to use them how they like.

cheers

[Mr J]

On 2004-05-21 11:41, moeee wrote:
[quote]

My idea is maybe the bookie missed something that I didn't.


"If you invest your hard earned you need to treat it as an investment,not a guess.
No room in gambling for hoping."
or making a general statement???

Free advice is all.


Sure. But the bookies are not normally that far off, so large overlays (large +EV) are often not actually value. My point is that the 15% might be too large a buffer.

E.g. I subscribe to the tennis package. I did an analysis of the results and found that large overlays have not been profitable. Why? Because the handicapper missed or overvalued something that the bookies didn't.

You can always check with other cappers to see what their opinions are, and if they agree there's value then it could very well be a great bet.

I don't like your attitude for your responses. You seem to be under the impression that I'm just a punter, well I'm not. I've been a full-time advantage player since I left high school and have learnt a few things along the way.

[moeee]

On 2004-05-21 14:25, Mr J wrote:
I don't like your attitude for your responses. You seem to be under the impression that I'm just a punter, well I'm not. I've been a full-time advantage player since I left high school and have learnt a few things along the way.


I feel there is a bad wind blowing here.I do hope it calms down.

I make mention of a 15% buffer.Here's what this means.
A bookmaker assesses a game as being to hard to call.(Lets just imagine it is the Carlton/Bulldogs game).
He can't give evens each of two,so he gives $1.92 (if he really wants the business he gives $1.95).
I look at the game and think Carlton by 8 points.
With the formula I use,which is what bookmakers appear to use if you analyze line betting prices,I have Carlton at $1.68.
If you divide 1.95 by 1.68 you get 1.16 which is 16% overlay.
How difficult is it to be 8 points or so more accurate than someone else.

Look I've been losing most of my punting life.I would like to win and steering others
to win would give me satisfaction.
I'm here to learn and share.Thats all.

Mo.

[Mr J]

"I'm here to learn and share.Thats all."

That's why most of us here.

" feel there is a bad wind blowing here.I do hope it calms down"

That's cool. It's calmed :wink:

I realise why you want a buffer. In theory it makes alot of sense. Only bet on large overlays and then you're much more likely to be betting with +EV (positive expected value). In practice it's not that simple though. A large overlay means either you or the bookie are pretty off. You should check the market and other sharp bettors for their opinions. If other sharp bettors seem to think the line is value, then you are probally fine. If they disagree with you about your large overlay, you may have missed something they didn't.

I'm not saying large overlays are not profitable, you just have to be careful.I don't think you should exlude smaller overlays. The smaller overlays are generally where alot of bettors make their money. You should really bet any line your formula/system says is value.

If you exclude the smaller overlays, who might be throwing potential value away. As long as you are more accurate than the bookies longterm, these smaller overlays will profit and so it's worthwhile betting them.

Not saying what you are doing is wrong, just offering an opinion I've formed from my own experiences as well as the views of experienced sharps I respect.