Topweight system

[crasher]

I have been following a topweights for the past 7 or 8 weeks sat only M,S,B,A,P.
must have s/r 41%+
races distance 1100 to 1600 only
last start within 28 days
last start in city or open good class country
results very good my s/r 50 % with some good divs eg.Paraca $19.00
Anyone care to run the system for a longer period as I don't have the data or system.
Cheers
Crasher

[Chrome Prince]

Just ran it over part of the year 2000 to get a different aspect and it had 160 selections for a return of $148.30.

[crasher]

thanks Chrome prince not as good as I hoped, one thing I missed I don't bet on restricted races maybe that might make a difference but on the look of 2000 not there yet.
Crasher

[Felicity]

Hello boys,

Looking at this system is it immediately apparent that it’s simply a variation of the old Tab#1 bet.

However, I ran it exactly as cited over a long term (13 yrs) and Chrome Prince is correct … SR 29% LOT –7.2%. If you simply substitute “Fav” for the performance criterion then the SR shifts to 34% and the LOT reduces to –5%.

You see the problem is the price/SR nexus is such that the profit is absorbed by the bookmaker/TAB.

TAB’s typically settle at 117% (15% commission + $0.05 per win bet rounding (as a hidden fee)) and bookies are set anywhere between 115% and 160% depending on what they think they can get away with.

Diehard systemateers stop reading here.

Now, most of the systems I’ve seen on this forum generate short priced horses without the strike rate to match and this is precisely the trap I fell into for the first couple of years of my punting career. Although I had my share of winners I might as well have invested my bank in a savings pass book and earned 0.9% POT.

Then I started to rate horses (using that evil creature – a computer) and run statistical analyses on my results.

I discovered that where a Fav is in my top 2 then it’s SR lifts to 40% and suddenly Faves are profitable, where the Fav is outside 2 then it has a less than 10% SR and I make money by backing my top 2 for 1:5 (Insurance) or place only.

The rating method I use is COMPLETELY statistically based and is publicly available, I wouldn’t know one end of a horse from the other …… to get the Field I count the legs and divide by 4 ………, but I DO know about numbers. The WSR of my top 2 ranges from 60% at 8 field to 43% at field 14.

An earlier post of mine pointed you in the direction of beaten distance but was decried by the pseudo cogniscenti on the basis that it takes too long …. let me tell you ………….. I rate every Australian race (other than NT) 7 days a week and to rate every horse in a full days races takes less than a minute.

All I’d like punters to do is to THINK.

Punting isn’t an easy way to make a few $$$$, but it can be VERY rewarding if you put in a little effort.

Time to go and give Mr Costello his pound of flesh.

CU, darlings, ... oh and apologies if I've offended anyone this time.

Felicity

[Chrome Prince]

On 2004-05-20 14:06, Felicity wrote:
You see the problem is the price/SR nexus is such that the profit is absorbed by the bookmaker/TAB.


Yes, more often than not some angle you come up with has already been factored into the price unless you can come up with something original or not readily available.
Jockey - Trainer - win S/R - Distance - Track - last start placing - beaten margin etc etc.
I found this through my research.


I discovered that where a Fav is in my top 2 then it’s SR lifts to 40% and suddenly Faves are profitable, where the Fav is outside 2 then it has a less than 10% SR and I make money by backing my top 2 for 1:5 (Insurance) or place only.


Yes, faves can be profitable - but only if you run the test on enough data - minimum 2 years (the more the better) and have a unique angle.


The rating method I use is COMPLETELY statistically based and is publicly available, I wouldn’t know one end of a horse from the other …… to get the Field I count the legs and divide by 4 ………, but I DO know about numbers. The WSR of my top 2 ranges from 60% at 8 field to 43% at field 14.


Felicity, I'm interested in your rating method, not all the details, just the basics. Is it yours or price predictor or some other software?


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-05-20 17:02 ]</font>

[Shaun]

Felicity did say The rating method I use is COMPLETELY statistically based and is publicly available.....i for one would love to see what it is as i find ratings out way systems any day if you get them right

[crasher]

Felicity
Thanks for the thought provoking response....like the other guys I would like to know where you access you publicly available ratings...any info gratefully received.
Cheers
Crasher

Hi Felicity, I have no interest at all - please by all means keep it all to yourself - you deserve it.

[Felicity]

Chrome Prince, I work using Relative Frequency. I originally programmed the thing in a spreadsheet using macros but have now moved to a home written C++ prog.

Data is 5 start data from Cyberhorse at a cost of $240 p.a. which I parse into a .dbf format for ease of use.

The lookup tables are taken from Thoroughbred Handicapping Tables and some other snippets from Roger Biggs books, the method is described in Handicapping By Numbers but Biggs is one of those writers who won’t tell you exactly how he does it but he does give what elements he uses in A Handicapping Miscellany.

For the past year I’ve been able to match (and sometimes better) his results (he sells his ratings) so I know I’m on the right track and the contents of my purse confirms it.

If it’s consistency yr looking for then this method will provide it and also tell you which races to stay away from (a very handy clue).

The systemateers will find a beaut system in Adventures In Handicapping which shifts the fav SR over 50%.

Incidentally, Biggs books are an easy read but if yr going to use his methods then you need to be able to do some programming (at spreadsheet macro level) or be prepared to cherry-pick your races and be a whiz with a calculator.

As you’ll gather I’m a bit of a fan of his :smile:

Poor Ole Phil ..... just couldn't resist it, could you.

Gotta go, the mainframe is caaaalllllliinnnggggggg.

Felicity.

[trench digger]

FELICITY,

I to have purchased all Biggs books and are a fan of his methods.

I was wondering if you would have any interest selling your program as I do not have the know how to construct such a beast.

Currently I am doing all calculations manaually and you will understand I only have the time to do 1 race per saturday.

TD

[Shaun]

thanks Felicity might have a look....i am currently working on a ratings system useing the last 3 starts of prizemoney i think i need to brush up on my programing skills as it currently takes me about 30 seconds per horse to add information....and i have always said that picking your races is a good start to winning....just because they have 60 to 100 races on a saturday you dan't have to bet in all of them.

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks for the reply Felicity, as a side Roger has been known to post on another forum at times and I think even here once or twice. I believe he hails from Tassie?

Could you just expand on what you mean by relative frequency? I understand what it is, but how would you use and apply it in this scenario?

Thanks.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-05-22 18:05 ]</font>

[Chrome Prince]

On 2004-05-22 09:57, Shaun wrote:
i am currently working on a ratings system useing the last 3 starts of prizemoney

Shaun,

Let me give you some advice, I have also investigated last three starts prizemoney.

You need to use it in conjunction with something else, it is a good guide, but by itself it really doesn't help too much.

Let me give an example using favourites:
NO FILTERS
Selections: 14,960
Winners: 4,564
S/R: 30.51%
Loss: -13.19%

FAVOURITES RANKED FIRST BY PRIZEMONEY WON LAST THREE STARTS
Selections: 5,158
Winners: 1,709
S/R 33.13%
Loss: -15.24%

So it lifts the strike rate slightly but are worse value.

Just an example.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-05-22 18:15 ]</font>

[baco60]

.

Relative Frequency
Suppose that X is a random variable for the experiment, taking values in a space S. Note that X might be the outcome variable for the entire experiment, in which case S would be the sample space. Recall that the distribution of X is the probability measure on S given by

P(A) = P(X A) for A S.

Suppose now that we fix A. Recall that the indicator variable IA takes the value 1 if X is in A and 0 otherwise. This indicator variable has the Bernoulli distribution with parameter P(A) above.

1. Show that the mean and variance of IA are given by

E(IA) = P(A).
var(IA) = P(A)[1 − P(A)].
Now suppose that we repeat the basic experiment indefinitely to form independent random variables X1, X2, ..., each with the distribution of X. Thus, for each n, (X1, X2, ..., Xn) is a random sample of size n from the distribution of X. The relative frequency of A for this sample is

Pn(A) = #{i {1, 2, ..., n}: Xi A} / n for A S.

The relative frequency of A is a statistic that gives the proportion of times that A occurred, in the first n runs.

2. Show Pn(A) is the sample mean from a random sample of size n from the distribution of IA. Thus, conclude that

E[Pn(A)] = P(A).
var[Pn(A)] = P(A)[1 − P(A)] / n
Pn(A) �¨ P(A) as n �¨ �‡ (with probability 1).
This special case of the strong law of large numbers is basic to the very concept of probability.

3. Show that for a fixed sample, Pn satisfies the axioms of a probability measure.

The probability measure Pn gives the empirical distribution of X, based on the random sample. It is a discrete distribution, concentrated at the distinct values of X1, X2, ..., Xn. Indeed, it places probability mass 1/n at Xi for each i, so that if the sample values are distinct, the empirical distribution is uniform on these sample values.

Several applets in this project are simulations of random experiments with events of interest. When you run the experiment, you are performing independent replications of the experiment. In most cases, the applet displays the relative frequency of the event and its complement, both graphically in blue, and numerically in a table. When you run the experiment, the relative frequencies are shown graphically in red and also numerically.

4. In the simulation of Buffon's coin experiment, the event of interest is that the coin crosses a crack. Run the experiment 1000 times with an update frequency of 10. Note the apparent convergence of the relative frequency of the event to the true probability.

5. In the simulation of Bertrand's experiment, the event of interest is that that a "random chord" on a circle will be longer than the length of a side of the inscribed equilateral triangle. Run the experiment 1000 times with an update frequency of 10. Note the apparent convergence of the relative frequency of the event to the true probability.

Hi Chrome maybe this will help.
Cheers
baco

[baco60]

MUSCLES AT WORK-They are the engine of the equne athlete and the bulkiest tissue in the body, but despite their importance, muscles aren't generally regarded for the work they do. Though their function has been the subject of much research during the last hundred years or so, only recently have scientists set their dights on how muscles actually work to perform a coordinated mechanical service for horses and humans alike.

If you have ever thought about muscles, you probably imagine them in their individual and collective roles, lifting, pushing, beckoning and squeezing, once they've been given a signal. But the pulsing symmetry of the horses gallop, as well as the sinuosity of a flirtatious walk bespeak a scheme, an integration, an enhancement over the mere signal and twitch response that is so often associated with muscles at work.

How can muscles work? What do they contribute to the magic of locomotion, which is, technically, the movement of the horses weight(his mass) over a given distance at a particular speed? To begin with, muscles can shorten. A complex series of chemical events cause one protien strand to slide past another within the muscle fiber and thus accomplish work by moving the muscle attachments in one direction or another. A simple example is when the gluteal muscles of the horse's rump shorten to rotate his hip and push his body forward, or to kick out behind.

A second ability of muscles is to tense without shortening. In this manner, they actually accomplish no work, but remain fixed in place-a quality which allows both you and your horse to support weight on a bent leg without falling.

Perhaps the least obvious type of muscle action is the ability to resist stretch or elongation, which causes work to be done on the muscle itself. In horses, the most familiar example is the elongation of the forearm muscles as the flexor-tendon-muscle complex takes up the horse's weight during the course of a stride. The muscles of the forearm are not doing work as they regulate the stretch of the tendon complex, but the work done on them becomes extremely useful in locomotion.

Muscles act separately and differently at any one instant and also in the various phases of a particular motion. As a horse's foreleg strikes the ground, for instance, the triceps are fixing the elbow, the serratus muscles on the chest are resisting elongation to stop the torso's natural descent between the forelegs, and the posterior pectoral muscles--just under the girth at the bottom of the chest--are shortening to pull the leg backward and the body forward over the ground. An instant later, the triceps is shortening to extend the elbow and the serratus is contracting to assist in the upward propulsion of the body.

To achieve efficient motion and make the most of the body's energy ~: supply, muscles have particular and various capabilities for individual ~ and group effectiveness. Some operate entirely within a few hundredths of a second. They are mostly the bulky, propulsive muscles such as the glutei on top of the rump and the triceps behind the shoulder, which characteristically produce a brief catapulting action. As a result, they are known As ballistic muscles. In contrast to these, other muscles have the "leisure" of a few tenths of a second to do their work. They are



the longer, more strap like variety, typical of those found in the neck, and are sometimes referred to as regulators or modulators. Still another muscle group--the resistors-- are active nearly all the time and are found in the forearm and the back.

Such differences are achieved by specializations in fiber type and arrangement, and in muscle length. The ballistic muscles, for instance, are fan shaped with many fibers ranked next to each other. As a result, they are short in proportion to their bulk with a high intrinsic firing rate--the speed with which all the shortening takes place when the entire muscle is stimulated. Modulator muscles like the brachiocephalicus, which connects the horse's arm to his head and runs along the side of his neck, are long for their total mass with fibers that are parallel but running in a long series. They shorten at a much slower firing rate, but lack the explosive power of the ballistic muscles. Dispersed throughout the resistor muscles, like those of the forearm, are straps, bands and cords of tendinous tissue, which influence the muscle fibers' lengths and arrangement. They are mostly short fibers organized in a sort of herringbone pattern, attaching between the elastic elements as well as from bone to tendon. In this manner, they dampen the effect of vibration and shock that occurs when the tendons, the springs of the legs, are stretched during each support phase of the stride.

In addition to its specialty, every manages some of the other basic properties so it can integrate its action into the entire stride cycle, taking advantage of opportunities for greater efficiency, while minimizing energy expenditure and waste. In simple shortening, muscle efficiency is only about 25 percent. Yet research has shown that when horses are in motion, the efficiency level can be raised to nearly 50 percent, while the heat output of the muscle is correspondingly reduced.

In order to explore the strategies that are employed, imagine a child's swing or a clock pendulum. When the weight swings up toward the end of its travel, it gains potential energy. When it swings down through the bottom of its arc, it ex- pends kinetic (active) energy, most of which is retrieved in the ensuing upward swing toward the other end of the arc. The transfer of this energy is most efficient if the arcs are not too large. When you stop pushing the child's swing, for example, its action quickly fades until all that remains are the gentle arcs that can go on for many minutes. Likewise in a horse, the smaller the up-and-down travel of his center of gravity, the smoother and, hence, the more efficient his gait. But while the swing- bound child relies on the strength of the person pushing him, the horse obtains this spring and pendulum advantage by two different methods --one at the walk. another at the trot or pace and gallop or canter.

At the walk, the horse's legs are four upside-down pendulums, hinging where the foot is on the ground and swinging over that point at the shoulder and hip. As the hoof meets the ground and the horse's weight comes down onto the leg, potential energy is stored in its tendons, fascia and ligaments, which act as its spring mechanism. As the leg passes the vertical and pushes off, the springs return the energy to the ground as a kinetic push. Four legs, in measured cadence, transfer energy from one to the next to minimize the up-and-down travel of the horse's center of gravity and to keep each pendulum in the "low" end of the swing. If the horse takes excessively long steps with each leg, his center of mass moves excessively up and down and the energy transfer from one leg to the next is much less efficient.

At the trot and gallop, more and more of the horse's body becomes a spring in response to the increased speed, and coincidentally, the natural frequency of the "body spring" is identical to the stride rate. The horse's pogo-stick motion generally produces about two strides per second at the gallop--a number which is determined by his size and spring characteristics. This makes the pony's gallop much more frequent than that of the grown horse, but also accounts for differences in the stride rate between particular horses.

During the suspension phase of the trot and gallop, the horse gains potential energy which is stored in the body springs when the weight next returns to the legs. This stored energy is then expended to assist the ballistic muscles in pushing the body forward. It also serves to reverse the downward direction of the center of mass and hurtle it back into the air again. In order to gain the maximum benefit from this energy-saving strategy, the trot must have as little elevation for as long as possible, resulting in the smoothest and longest leg-to-leg transfer between suspensions.

There are additional efficiencies which are achieved by still other strategies. It has been revealed through research that if you stretch a muscle slightly just before you ask it to shorten, you can double the effectiveness of the contraction without putting in any additional energy. The reason is that the protein fibrils within the muscle fiber travel past each other more rapidly and more completely without using any additional resources. Pre stretching the muscle as much as a second beforehand doesn't do nearly as much for efficiency as if it is stretched just a tenth or a hundredth of a second before its signal comes.

Ingeniously, as the horse produces his gait, especially at the faster speeds, every muscle is automatically pre stretched just before it must shorten. The greater the extension of the leg in preparation for the next support, the greater the pre stretch, and the better the ensuing shortening, and therefore the more powerful and more efficient the stride. The extensions and separations of the racing trot or pace and of the gallop utilize pre stretch to the fullest.

How do muscles know precisely when to act? Do they take their cue from the ground, sensing and reacting to the specific need for each stride? Not at all. The muscles are pre' programmed for each stride and are tense and ready before the weight of landing is applied. Notice how a horse's gait deteriorates if a soft spot or hummock intercepts his footfall. The result in virtually all cases is that he stumbles. In irregular or inconsistent footing, the horse carefully keeps an eye on where he's going so he , doesn't take a spill. If the terrain is uniform, an "automatic pilot" resets each stride to replicate the last. The inattentive horse, who is just cruising along, must be warned by the rider of an upcoming change in the ) footing or he'll bobble for a step or two as he adjusts.

The horse's information from his vision is the primary regulator of changes in his stride. The horse can see mighty well in relative darkness, but in absolute darkness or if the animal is blind, he must develop a "hunt and peck" or "Braille" system of finding his way over the ground. How does the adjustment in stride, with relation to footing, take place? The brain preprograms 1) the recruitment of the number, array and fiber type of muscle motor units to accommodate required changes in speed, strength and duration of muscle action, and 2) the reassignment of whole muscles and muscle groups to accomplish changes of direction. If the horse is going to make a sudden turn to the left, for example, he must first ask that the symmetrical function, which he has been relying on to keep him on a straight course, give way to unbalanced obligations for each leg, and for the neck and back to put the legs outside the line of travel so that the next rebound will force the body to angularly depart from the straight line. Successive angular changes, properly executed, are refined into a smooth and continuous turn.

The paradox of muscles, however, is that even though the way they work is more completely understood, there is still not enough evidence to tell us fully what they are doing--which ones are active, in which instance and to what kind of action they are subjected or are generating at each phase of the stride. Perhaps by dividing the action into the foreleg, the hind leg and the head and neck, each muscle's role will become more evident. (Obviously, there are important dynamics in the horse's trunk as well, but they are not so actively involved in the generation of his gait.)



The horse executes the gallop in Two general stages. The first is known as preparation, and during this phase the horse's leg has cleared the ground and is being brought forward in preparation for the next support. It is a move that requires about 35/100 of a second. The other stage of the gallop is retraction and support. Accomplished in about 151100 of a second, it includes the entire power stroke of the leg. By looking at several points in a whole leg cycle, we can isolate some of the action and see how particular muscles go about their work.

As the foreleg snaps free of the ground in preparation for its next support, the brachiocephalicus, anterior pectoral muscles, trapezius and serratus muscles shorten to accelerate the leg's protraction. The leg then folds up to reduce the resistance it will otherwise encounter when it advances, stretching the extensors of the forearm in the process. This folding slows the process to some extent, but is much more energy efficient in the long run. (The presence of any excessive shoe weight or hoof length increases this folding tendency, which is why racehorses are generally shod with the lightest possible shoes and are occasionally raced without any shoes at all.)

An instant later, as the leg completes its folding and begins to extend, the forearm muscles on the front side (extensor) shorten, smoothing the recovery of the exten- sor tendon, helping to reduce vibration. Then the forearm flexors on the back of the leg resist the stretch of the flexor tendon so that the foot is stabilized for touchdown. At this point, the posterior pectoral muscles, latissimus dorsi and other retractors of the leg are pre stretched. The triceps muscles at the back of the shoulder are tense to stabilize the elbow, and the trapezius and rhomboideous muscles of the upper part of the shoulder and neck are pre stretched along with posterior elements of the serratus.

All is now in readiness to initiate the lightning retraction and propulsion phase which slingshots the horse's weight over his next support. A brief initial phase of retraction starts the foot backward to achieve a ground speed of zero for its landing. (If the foot is traveling forward at the speed of the horse's body at the time of landing, a tremendous shock force is loaded in.)

During retraction some of the pre stretched muscles begin shortening. At touchdown and during the initial phases of loading, the triceps muscle is briefly pre stretched and then shortened to prevent the elbow's collapse and the sinking of the center of gravity. The serratus, the forearm flexors and the biceps fibers are resisting and regulating the stretch of their related tendinous elements. The muscles immediately stabilize the joint and prevent wobbling. During the middle of the propulsion phase, the pectoral muscles and upper shoulder muscles shorten further to speed up scapular rotation and give horizontal acceleration to the Portion of the body over the leg. The triceps completes the extension of the elbow against the fixation of the biceps on the front of the shoulder. The brachiocephalicus, the trapezius and the anterior pectoral muscles are pre stretched to prepare around the shoulder joint tense to the leg for the next protraction.

As the horse finishes his pushoff and unloads the leg, the spring structures in the lower portion, including the tendons and tendinous n elements of their related muscles, convey the energy stored in them and in the body springs back into the ground as kinetic energy to follow through on the efforts of the muscles to move the horse upward and forward.

The hind leg can be viewed in a similar series of vignettes.

As the leg snaps free of the ground to start forward, the flexorsof the hip, including the iliopsoas and tensor fasciae latae, shorten along with the adductors on the inside of the leg.
The spring recoil of clearing the ground propels and folds the leg into an advancing arc.
As the leg is extended under the horse's belly toward the next support, the heavy gluteal muscles on top of the rump go into a prestretch and arrest the rotation of the hip. At the same time, the hamstring muscles (semitendinosus and semimembranosus) undergo pre stretching and join in with the quadriceps muscles on the front of the thigh to stabilize the stifle joint in preparation to resist excessive bending when the weight comes onto the leg and the power stroke is applied.
The gastrocnemius muscle in the back of the gaskin shortens to extend the hock in preparation for the foot accepting the next load.
At the retraction phase, when the foot is just starting back toward the ground, the rump muscles and hams shorten and the quadriceps muscles continue to provide stabilization for the stifle joint. As touchdown progresses toward loading of the leg, the glutei and hams go through an instantaneous pre stretch. The gastrocnemius and the quadriceps, especially the more tendinous rectus femoris in its center, are pre stretched and then begin their own shortening.
During the ballistic power stroke, which lasts for only a few hundredths of a second, the gluteal muscles and hams shorten rapidly to apply a power stroke to the rotation of the hip.
The quadriceps muscles shorten to further extend the stifle. The hip flexors, particularly the iliopsoas and the adductors, are pre stretched to prepare them for the next protraction.
Meanwhile, up front, the head and neck are playing their critical part in the gallop. (At the trot or pace there is little contribution from head-and-neck motion to the horse's progress. If this weren't so, then the check reins would drastically slow down the racing harness horse which, obviously, is not the case.)
As the leading foreleg is lifting off, an upper group of neck muscles are just finishing their shortening to bring the head to its highest point. These muscles include the spinalis, the longissimus thoracis and the multifidus thoracis. The ventral group--including the brachioce-phalicus, sternocephalicus, sternothyrohyoideus, scalenus and longus capitis--have just experienced a pre stretch and are beginning to shorten to assist the legs in being pulled forward and to pull forward on the breastbone to facilitate the horse's effort to breathe in. It is this muscular coordination which enables the horse's head and neck to simultaneously assist elongation the stride and filling of the lungs to optimize the entrainment of breathing with the gallop.
At mid-suspension, with the ventral group completing shortening, the head has already started down, dampening the upward travel of the center of gravity. The legs are snapping forward for the next touchdown and the body is rotating around the center of gravity to ensure that the hind legs will strike first and as far forward as they possibly can.
As the legs are successively loaded, the ligamentum nuchae is stretched and the dorsal muscles are pre stretched to arrest the downward travel of the horse's head and neck and to maximize the conversion of their potential energy of descent into the kinetic energy of forward travel.
As the front legs take over support, the elastic rebound of the nuchal ligament and the shortening of the dorsal muscles lift the head and neck to disencumber the forehand and assist the propulsive lift initiating the next suspension. In this way, the head and neck are the servants of the body. They act as a flywheel to smooth out and perpetuate the power strokes of each of the horse's legs.
Muscles use efficiency and integration, directed from the brain, to propel the horse tirelessly at a rolling gallop over miles and miles of level firm going, where leg-to-leg transfer, spring assemblies, and the magic of pre stretch enable him to progress at about 20 miles per hour for as long as his energy supplies last. Though saddling your horse and climbing aboard may seem to interfere with the natural bodywide integration of muscles at work, you can maximize their power potential by using the natural gaits which are preprogrammed for efficiency. By avoiding exaggerations of extensions and constraints, you also guard against costly energy expenditures that only result in fatigue. Additionally, by keeping your horse attentive and balanced for changes in the terrain ahead, you insure his safety and the fluidity of his movement, so that you can cover many miles together. As many as 75 miles in four hours have been achieved, and 100 in less than six have been recorded.

[baco60]

This will help as well,

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/hrs6942

Cheers
baco

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks Baco65,

I'm still wondering how one might apply this philosophy or execute it when dealing with statistics.

Isn't it simply another way of working out the expected price given the strike rate and the RF variation is the profit?

Example:

Favourites
Expected frequency 30% or 33.33
Needed average dividend to break even $3.33

But if the favourites you pick have a lower or higher strike rate, you recalculate the needed dividend.

If you can get 50% win strike rate, you need $2.00 average dividend.

If the actual strike rate goes up or down this is the relative frequency variation...or am I mistaken?

Perhaps the best thing I found in my search was this statement...

"As the number of trials of an experiment is increased,then the long-term relative frequency becomes a better estimate of the probability."

Simply put more data, more confidence and greater likelihood of future success. Something I've lived by for the last couple of years.

[Shaun]

CP..this is not the only form i use just saying that i would rather use the last 3 starts prize money than the API i use other things like where they finished track conditions distance ability...u know the normal stuff

[Chrome Prince]

Yep, I understand Shaun - just that your post wasalong the lines of some ideas I've also been toying with, so thought I'd give some feedback.

Amazing how we think along the same lines.

Have you ever run API vs. Prizemoney won over the last three starts and compared the ratios?

So that a horse with greater Prizemoney than API is in form and doing better than average versus the reverse.

Some interesting results.

[Shaun]

No never tried it...but will take a look....after thinking about this i find a problem they only give prize money for the first 5 places and i find that using lenghts beaten rather tan finished places is a better option so a horse that finished 8th in it's last three starts but only beaten less than 3 legnths would get a lower result than a horse finishing 3 at all 3 starts but being further back than 3 lengths

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Shaun on 2004-05-22 22:24 ]</font>

[Felicity]

On 2004-05-22 21:59, Shaun wrote:
i find that using lenghts beaten rather tan finished places is a better option so a horse that finished 8th in it's last three starts but only beaten less than 3 legnths would get a lower result than a horse finishing 3 at all 3 starts but being further back than 3 lengths


:smile:

If you have a spell in the last 4 runs eg the form line looks like 39X25 or the BD line looks like 2.6,9.4,Spell,0.5,1.2 then it produces better results if you simply dump/ignore the run b4 the spell as it was probably the cause of the spell and it's worth going back the the 5th run back to check on consistency. If you have a BD run like 9.4, 5.6, 8.3, spell, 5.4, 3.2 then leave the run b4 the spell in the mix as it looks like the horse isn't up to snuff throughout. It's easy to write a spreadsheet statement that'll do the work for you.

BTW .... sorry, my prog isn't for sale.

Take care

F.